Friday, April 19, 2002

ProFootballWeekly.com asks personnel expert Joel Buchsbaum for his thoughts on the hottest topics in football. 

Likely trades make predicting the draft difficult

Nobody will be trading for the first pick in Saturday’s NFL draft. Beyond that, anything is possible. After the expansion Houston Texans make Fresno State QB David Carr the No. 1 pick, the Panthers will entertain offers for the second spot. Many teams think they would be foolish not to keep local North Carolina DE Julius Peppers in state. Carolina general manager Marty Hurney said he has not received any calls, and if a trade doesn’t go down, the Panthers are content with the player they have in mind. While Hurney may not have been entertaining many offers to date, many teams are interested in moving up. Seattle head coach/general manager Mike Holmgren has his sights on a much higher position than the Seahawks’ No. 20 spot and said he’ll do whatever it takes to trade up. Oakland, which acquired Tampa Bay’s top selection (21^st overall) as part of the compensation package for Jon Gruden, would like to get in the mix for one of the top defensive tackles. New Orleans, which has Nos. 13 and 25, also has ammunition to move up.

Buchsbaum: Never before has the NFL had a day preceding the draft with this much uncertainty about how things are going to transpire on Draft Day. Nobody seems to have their mind made up after the Houston Texans, who are taking Fresno State QB David Carr. Carolina is leaning toward North Carolina DE Julius Peppers. They don’t know if they have to take Peppers at No. 2 or if they could try to deal down a couple of picks to a team that wants Texas CB Quentin Jammer and still get Peppers. They also like Jammer a lot.

Detroit at No. 3 has now brought Harrington into the picture, but even if they take Harrington, they don’t want to take him at No. 3, they want to move down at least to No. 6. Dallas wants Jammer, but the Cowboys also want a player who will agree to a deal on their terms because they have part of their rookie salary cap already taken by free-agent QB Chad Hutchinson.

San Diego at No. 5 has Jammer and Mike Williams at the top of their list. Buffalo, which could make a trade with a team (such as Dallas) that wants to move up for Jammer at No. 4 (if Detroit hasn't already taken him), would probably take Texas OT Mike Williams at No. 4 but could go in a number of directions if it trades down to No. 6 and Williams goes to San Diego at No. 5. It just seems like that is the way the whole draft will go.

The Raiders are talking to a lot of teams about moving up. There are also many teams that want to move down. If the Raiders can’t move into the elite area, they might trade the second of their first-round picks for second- and third-round picks because they don’t feel there will be great strength at the end of the first round.

Baltimore — if Arizona State OT Levi Jones isn’t available — will probably want to move down. Now Cleveland is having second thoughts on RB T.J. Duckett because of his toughness, and on and on the scenario goes. It just seems like, in most years you can lock in, that this is going to be this team’s pick, etc., and you have around five guys penciled in right before the draft. This year, you only have one, and that is Carr.

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