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Closing in on history

Emmitt Smith is within striking distance of Walter Payton’s all-time rushing record

By Mickey Spagnola
As published in print July 29, 2002

Emmitt Smith
Cowboys RB
Emmitt Smith

IRVING, Texas — For the better part of seven months, Emmitt Smith has stiff-armed reality, trying his best to hold off the inevitable anticipation of this season’s impending record run.

Both his anticipation, and a nation’s.

He finished the 2001 season with 16,187 career rushing yards, just 539 yards behind the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Walter Payton. Not an eternity of yards for a guy who has rushed for at least 1,000 in an NFL-record 11 consecutive years now. But for a guy entering his 13th season at the age of 33 — normally the twilight zone of an NFL running back’s career — those suddenly become very l-o-n-g yards.

Especially with everyone counting.

Especially when trying to do the right thing on a relatively young Cowboys team finally in resurrection mode.

Especially knowing how susceptible the body can be to serious injury, particularly the body of a running back. And knowing at the same time there just aren’t many strides left when you hit his age.

Especially knowing salary-cap implications are on the horizon once diminishing returns set in.

No one has said this. Not the Cowboys. Not Emmitt Smith. But common sense would suggest that the 2002 season qualifies as a "now or possibly never" — at least as a Cowboy — for Emmitt J. Smith III to gain his 540 yards and become the NFL’s all-time rushing champion.

Obviously, mulling over all this for seven months could drive a man batty. But, with the Cowboys beginning training camp in San Antonio on July 26, the barriers have come down. Unstoppable reality has arrived.

"I’m as ready as I’m going to be," Smith said when asked if he’s ready for what’s about to take place, both on the field and off, what with the media attention, beginning with the NFL Films cameras ready to document his every summer step for HBO’s "Hard Knocks" training-camp series featuring the Cowboys.

"It really came by so fast," Smith said. "Unbelievably fast. But I’ll just go down a day early like I always do. Nothing changes. Just get ready to go. I guess it will be interesting to see how it all shapes up, in terms off all the questions I’ll face. But I don’t expect to have a lot of press."

Smith laughed at the absurdity. He knows better. He knows he’ll be interrogated over the next three months as if he had illegally slipped into this country. He knows, if he allows it, he could drown in a flood of "what ifs:"

What if the Cowboys’ passing offense is as last-place bad as it was last year?

What if you get hurt?

What if RB Troy Hambrick continues to average 5.1 yards a carry?

What if the Cowboys look to the future after you break the record?

What if you need another season to break the record?

What if you break the record? Will you play another season?

"I guess I got to deal with the drama," Smith said, in turn saying that might be a good distraction for his younger teammates trying to find their way in the NFL. "In a lot of ways, that could be good."

This much we know for sure with Smith needing to average just 33.75 yards over a 16-game season to break Payton’s mark:

Even though the scheme being installed by new offensive coordinator Bruce Coslet is being ballyhooed as "West Coast," understand that the system particular to Coslet is rooted in a strong running game. That’s good for Smith.

This system also is advertised as QB friendly. That’s also good for Smith, whose production last year suffered from overzealous defenses guarding against the run because of a passing offense, run by four different starting quarterbacks, deserving of very little respect. Who would you have ganged up on? The rookie, Quincy Carter? The inexperienced Anthony Wright and Clint Stoerner? Ryan Leaf, who was playing with a bad thumb?

Or would you have aimed directly at the guy still trying to run down the record the late Payton grabbed away from Jim Brown in 1984?

The fact that Smith gained only 1,021 yards last year — the fewest since his rookie season, when a training-camp holdout and offensive coordinator David Shula’s propensity to throw the ball held him back — is not totally indicative of diminishing returns.

"I really don’t see him diminishing, from what I can see out there — from what’s he’s doing, how he moves, cuts and does some other things," head coach Dave Campo said. "But at the same time, he is 13 years into this thing, and we have a young tailback who is making some progress, so I think (how much Hambrick plays) will be determined by the game.

"But Emmitt is our starting tailback. Whatever he can show, he’s going to show."

Will that be enough to gain the necessary 540 yards, seven more than Payton actually gained in his final, strike-shortened season (1987) with the Bears? Will that be enough to hold down the starting job for an entire season and keep Hambrick at bay? And will that be enough to not only accomplish his lifetime goal, but to possibly add to the record again next season?

Odds would seem to be with Smith breaking the record, but Hambrick will be in games at times to keep Smith fresh. Odds are the Cowboys, with a pair of quality quarterbacks, young receivers, an improving defense and their arrow finally pointing upward again, would have to seriously consider either turning to Hambrick or a highly drafted rookie next year. Very few running backs have been productive after the age of 33.

But, we’ll see.

"Physically, I feel good, good as I’ll feel for the rest of the year," Smith said just prior to the start of training camp. "I feel good out there. And I still have linebackers (in one-on-one passing drills) still pulling my jersey so they can cover me."

So the inevitable countdown begins Sept. 8 in Houston, Smith’s first opportunity to dent that 539-yard barrier growing larger than life now that training camp has begun.

If Smith averages just 50 yards per game, he could break the once unbreakable record in Week 12 vs. the Jaguars. If he averages 75 yards per game, the record would fall in Week Eight against Seattle. If Smith were to average an impressive 100 yards per game, he would break the record in Week Six vs. the Panthers.

Once he gets there — assuming he gets there — and depending how he gets there, everyone concerned can let down their guard on where Emmitt Smith goes from there.

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Mickey Spagnola covers the Cowboys for www.dallascowboys.com

Profiles of several other running backs, including the Chiefs' Priest Holmes, Browns rookie William Green and the Falcons' "Dash and Smash" combination of Warrick Dunn and rookie T.J. Duckett, can be found in the current print edition of Pro Football Weekly, now on sale at newsstands and bookstores across the country. You can subscribe online to PFW's print edition, or subscribe by calling 1-800-FOOTBALL (1-800-366-8225) and charging your subscription to a major credit card.

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