| Call it parity, or mediocrity, or whatever you
want. There is no denying that in today’s NFL, teams can rise and fall in no time at
all. The days of dynasties appear to be over — replaced by an era when teams can
be transformed from cellar-dweller to division winner in just a year’s time. Think
back to the 1998 season, when the Rams finished another disappointing campaign with a
last-place, 4-12 record in the NFC West. A year later, the Rams were Super Bowl champions.
The Ravens vaulted from an 8-8, middle-of-the-pack finish in 1999 to 12-4 and Super
Bowl champions in 2000.
And this season we could see it happen again. The Bears are having a magical season.
They currently sit at 9-2, a record no one in their right mind would have predicted back
in August. After all, Chicago was a 5-11 team last year. You also have the Patriots, who
were 5-11 last year, in the middle of the playoff hunt. The Falcons were 4-12 in 2000, but
they are in position for fight for a wild-card berth. And don’t forget about the
Cardinals — winners of three games last year. Arizona has now won three in a row and
is still fighting for a postseason berth.
Taking all of that into consideration, the league also has its share of teams that are
down this season. Which team that is currently struggling is going to be the surprise of
the 2002 season?
Let’s look at the teams that currently have four or fewer wins.
The Colts (4-7) were supposed to contend for the AFC East, but injuries have taken
their toll, as has an awful defense. Next season, once they get Edgerrin James back and
Peyton Manning is not so beat up, I expect the offense will regroup and live up to
expectations. However, until Bill Polian improves this defense, the Colts won’t
contend for the Super Bowl. Polian might want to look at what the Rams did in the
offseason, when they overhauled their defense with impressive results.
The Bengals (4-7) got off to an impressive start, but then reverted back to
"Bungles" mode. Major League Baseball is currently considering contraction. If
the NFL ever gets to that point, I hope they would first consider expelling this franchise
for its decade-plus of futility. That said, the nucleus of a good defense is in place.
They have a franchise-caliber running back and some talent outside at receiver, but they
don’t have a quarterback. Until they get someone in that position, the Bengals are
destined to tease.
The Vikings (4-7) have some problems to fix on defense. That’s obvious. They also
need to improve their running attack, which should happen if Michael Bennett catches on in
his second NFL season. They have plenty of talent at receiver and quarterback, so they are
safe there. I would expect that the Vikings will be back in the playoff hunt next year.
This disappointing season isn’t the beginning of the end for this franchise,
it’s just a one-year blip.
Jacksonville (3-8) is ready for rebuilding. The Jaguars are in serious salary-cap
trouble, which will prevent them from re-signing key players like Kevin Hardy. With a
quarterback like Mark Brunell, though, the thinking in Jacksonville is that they can at
least remain competitive. But my gut tells me it’s going to get worse before it gets
better.
Kansas City (3-8) could be a team that has a productive offseason and moves up the
ladder a bit. It took Dick Vermeil time to turn around the Rams, and he won’t do it
overnight with the Chiefs.
Dallas (3-8) has been surprisingly competitive this season. Despite the Cowboys’
declaration that this year is about evaluating for the future, they have played several
teams very tight, which bodes well for the future. The fact that they are expected to be
in good salary-cap shape in 2002 is another reason to believe that better days are ahead.
However, with Jerry Jones still in charge of personnel decisions, getting a lot of help
from the draft can’t necessarily be counted on. Still, I wouldn’t rule out the
Cowboys from making a big jump next year.
Buffalo (1-10) will first have to decide what to do at the QB position, where Rob
Johnson is no longer a lock to return. That hurts their chances of contending next year. I
believe the Bills are still a couple of years away from contending.
Carolina (1-11) is in rebuilding mode. It will likely take longer for it to rebuild
than it did to originally build this expansion team in 1995. The Panthers made it to the
NFC championship game in their second year of existence. I don’t see them advancing
that far into the playoffs for quite some time to come.
Finally Detroit (0-11). What can you say about Detroit? Well, I'll tell you what. There
is too much talent on this team for it to go winless. Furthermore, I think the Lions will
make the biggest jump next season. Judging from how they’ve played good teams very
tightly, I foresee good things down the road.
Crazy things are happening in the NFL year after year. What would be crazier than the
Lions reaching the Super Bowl next season? |
