Thursday, Oct. 18, 2001

Realignment

What if the divisional changes had already taken place?

By Keith Schleiden, Managing editor

Now, this is no surprise. The NFL announced its realignment plan back in May. But I thought it might be kind of fun to take a look at where things would stand if this season’s current standings were applied to the realigned divisions we’ll be seeing next year.

So, here we go.

AFC East

Miami          3-2
N.Y. Jets          3-2
New England  2-3
Buffalo         0-4

This is a hard division to figure out. The Dolphins have a defense that should stand the test of time, meaning they will continue to remain one of the NFL’s better teams for the immediate future. The Jets are also hard to figure out, but they appear to be headed in the right direction under Herm Edwards. However, Vinny Testaverde won’t be around much longer, so this franchise will have to rely on young Chad Pennington down the road. New England might get things turned around, but they don’t figure to be a playoff threat in this new division for some time. And Buffalo, well, they’re in rebuilding mode. It will be a few years before they are up and running with the NFL’s elite.

AFC South

Indianapolis 2-2
Jacksonville 2-2
Tennessee 1-3
Houston       N/A

If you were to have judged this division before the season began, you might have said it would be the toughest in the league. Indianapolis had powerhouse aspirations, but they’ve fallen short of expectations thus far. Jacksonville is about where they ought to be, but they could be headed for some down time because of more anticipated salary-cap problems. Tennessee is a huge disappointment, but they figure to stay strong for a few more seasons. The Texans vow to be the most-prepared expansion team in the history of pro sports, but that doesn’t mean they will be any good until about Year Three.

AFC North

Pittsburgh 3-1
Baltimore 3-2
Cincinnati 3-2
Cleveland 3-2

Like the AFC East, this is just a smaller version of the division these teams are playing in now (the AFC Central). Pittsburgh usually seems to be in the playoff race, but they aren’t dominant like they were a few years ago due to a lackluster offense. Baltimore should remain a contender for a few more years. Cincinnati could be the next big thing, as they have lots of young talent and seem to be gaining momentum under the guidance of head coach Dick LeBeau. Same thing goes for Cleveland, where Butch Davis has turned the Browns’ franchise around. This could be a very good division next year.

AFC West

Oakland       4-1
Denver       3-2
San Diego      3-2
Kansas City    1-4

OK, more of the same. The only thing missing here is Seattle. Oakland is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and there’s no reason to believe they are in for a dramatic fall-off. Denver is always tough. San Diego is a club on the rise, and could challenge for elite status by next year. It could take Dick Vermeil a few years to get things to go his way in Kansas City, much like what happened in St. Louis.

NFC East

N.Y. Giants 3-2
Philadelphia 2-2
Dallas        1-4
Washington 0-5

The weak Arizona franchise has been removed from this equation, which may be good for the remaining teams. The Cardinals are rebuilding and actually may be decent in a few years. Speaking of rebuilding, the Cowboys are in that mode. But with Jerry Jones doing making most of the personnel decisions, I don’t see them as a threat any time soon. The Redskins? Same sad situation. They also will have some salary-cap issues next year, so things could get worse before they get better. The Giants have an outstanding defense, but I see the Eagles getting the better of them in the next few seasons.

NFC South

New Orleans 3-1
Tampa Bay 2-2
Atlanta        2-3
Carolina        1-4

New Orleans and Tampa Bay are the clear favorites here. The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense but could still be searching for answers on offense into the next decade. There could also be some changes to the coaching staff, as Tony Dungy might be in trouble if the team doesn’t live up to expectations this year. New Orleans figures to be very competitive for some time to come. The Falcons might take a while to develop, but their future will be bright if Michael Vick is everything he is made out to be. Carolina? Another team that is in admitted rebuilding mode, and there doesn’t appear to be a quick fix.

NFC North

Green Bay 4-1
Chicago        3-1
Minnesota 2-3
Detroit        0-4

It’s good to see this division remain largely in tact, with only the Bucs being removed. Green Bay will remain a contender as long as Brett Favre is on the field, which should be at least a couple more seasons. The Bears appear to be headed in the right direction, with a top defense and improving offense. They could be a club to watch next season, although their schedule will likely be more challenging. The Vikings might be headed for a downturn, even though they have young offensive stars like Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper. Those two can’t do it alone. They will need to improve the running game and defense. The Lions are a huge mess that will take years to clean up. They could be the doormats of this division for some time to come.

NFC West

St. Louis        5-0
San Francisco 4-1
Seattle        3-2
Arizona         1-3

Finally, the new NFC West. This is the powerhouse division. The Rams are the best team in football, and there’s no reason to suggest they will fall apart soon. The 49ers are the model for getting through salary-cap problems and rebuilding the team into a winner. The Seahawks could be dangerous eventually, provided Mike Holmgren gets his QB situation settled. And the Cardinals should become competitive once Dave McGinnis stocks the roster with some more talent. He is a good head coach who is currently hamstrung by a roster that is lacking.

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