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Monday, June 10, 2002

Mystery abounds in AFC South

Conclusions are hard to come by in NFL’s most mysterious division

By Dan Arkush, Executive editor

With eight new divisions to consider courtesy of realignment, I find myself with much more of a divisional mindset these days.

And, in most cases, I already find myself drawing some pretty quick conclusions.

The most entertaining division?

That’s easy. Games featuring teams from the high-flying NFC West will definitely be worth the price of admission, where the bar has been set extremely high by the explosive defending NFC champion Rams, spearheaded by the game’s top two offensive performers, in no particular order, QB Kurt Warner and RB Marshall Faulk.

The worst division?

Again, the choice seems obvious in this gridiron chronicler’s estimation. The NFC South really seems to leave a lot to be desired, with Jon Gruden’s re-energized Buccaneers looking like the class act by a wide margin, especially after their recent acquisition of Keenan McCardell. While they’ve all made some decent moves this offseason, the Saints, Falcons and Panthers still look average at best.

The best division?

While cases could be made for both the NFC West and AFC West, my vote has to go to the AFC East, featuring three teams that managed 10 or more wins last season — the Super Bowl champion Patriots, Miami and the New York Jets — and a fourth in Buffalo that figures to improve significantly with ex-Patriots QB Drew Bledsoe at the controls.

But for a lot of reasons, there’s one division that seems a lot harder to figure than any other.

While I can look at the other seven divisions right now and come up with a pretty clear-cut favorite in each case, I confess to not having a clue as to how things will turn out in the particularly quirky AFC South.

The presence of the expansion Houston Texans might lead many critics to instantly conclude that the AFC South is indeed the weakest division, also taking into account the combined 19-29 record compiled by the Colts, Titans and Jaguars last season.

But it says here both the Colts and Titans dramatically underachieved last season — in no small part due to injuries to key players that made their ugly presence felt from beginning to end.

With a little better luck this season, I think both teams could be very serious contenders in 2002.

When I look at the Colts on paper heading into the ’02 campaign, I can’t help but compare them to last year’s Rams, a team that went out of its way last offseason to revamp arguably the league’s most suspect defense, and with tremendous results.

While the Colts don’t appear to have upgraded their defense, in terms of personnel, anywhere near the extent the Rams did the previous season, they do have a new head coach in Tony Dungy who is as much responsible for the cover-2 defensive scheme the Rams employed with such great success this past season as anybody on the planet.

As far as the Titans go, I will be greatly surprised if they aren’t a lot better on both sides of the ball this season, with key players such as QB Steve McNair, RB Eddie George and CB Samari Rolle fully healthy and operating on all cylinders.

In the case of the Texans, I have tremendous faith in the front office, led by general manager Charley Casserly, but the injury bug that has already bitten OT Tony Boselli and DT Gary Walker this offseason is cause for considerable concern.

The Jaguars, too, have picked right up where they left off in the injury department, already having lost backup offensive linemen Chris Ziemann and Aaron Koch for the coming season with knee injuries. The Jags also must deal with the painful reality of a combined $11.9 million salary-cap charge for five players no longer on the roster — CB Aaron Beasley ($4.6 million), S Carnell Lake ($2.3 million), LB Hardy Nickerson ($2.25 million), WR Keenan McCardell ($1.615 million) and LB Kevin Hardy ($1.162 million).

Having said all that, however, something tells me both teams will have some surprisingly bright moments in a division with more novelty than any other.

So which team will win the division?

Right now, I guess I’d have to flip a coin between the Colts and Titans, whose games against one another will ultimately tell the tale.

Should be interesting. Very interesting.

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