Friday, Feb. 1, 2002

Five to stay alive

The Patriots don’t have many edges over the Rams, but winning these five battles could give New England the upset victory

By Jeff Agrest, Senior editor

St. Louis has such a sizable edge in practically every facet of the game that a key matchup cannot be singled out. Winning one particular battle will not ensure an upset victory for New England, a 14-point underdog.

With that in mind, here are five battles the Patriots need to win to have a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.

Controlling the clock

The Patriots need to set the pace for the game with a consistent, clock-chewing ground attack. RB Antowain Smith, whose production has sagged in the postseason, needs to gain the tough yards and keep the chains moving. A solid straight-ahead runner, Smith will need the help of his offensive line, which boasts some tough, workmanlike blockers such as OGs Mike Compton and Joe Andruzzi. If the Patriots control the clock, they’ll keep St. Louis’ high-powered offense off the field and keep their defense fresh. However, we all know how quickly the Rams can score, so even if New England does control the tempo, St. Louis can still win the game. That makes it imperative for the Patriots to put seven points on the board, not three, when they enter the red zone.

Special teams

This is the only battle where the Patriots have a definitive edge, so they must win it. That means finding a way to score, as they did twice in the AFC championship game. New England is extremely well-coached and well-disciplined on special teams, and Troy Brown has turned into one of the top punt returners in the league. He led the league in yards per return in the regular season (14.2), and he’s returned three punts for scores in 18 games. Brown could take advantage of a middle-of-the-road Rams punt-coverage unit and give the Patriots a short field to work with. Of course, that means the New England defense must force St. Louis to punt. In the regular season, the Rams punted 43 times, the fewest of any team in the league. The next lowest total: Pittsburgh with 63.

Turnovers

Simply put, the Patriots cannot afford to turn the ball over. They can’t give the Rams more scoring chances than they’ll already have. Fortunately, they didn’t make a habit of it during the regular season, tying for ninth in the league in turnover ratio at plus-7. QB Tom Brady has thrown a respectable 13 interceptions in 16 games, and the team’s 13 lost fumbles are right near the league average (12.4). But while the Patriots need to take care of the ball, they also need to take the ball away from the Rams and give themselves more scoring chances. In the regular season, St. Louis ranked tied for 26^th in the league in turnover ratio (minus-10), and the team has never been afraid of taking a chance. If the Patriots can force some turnovers and score off them, they’ll probably stay in the game.

Physical play

Obviously, football is a physical game. But the Patriots need to take that to another level. The cornerbacks need to jam the Rams’ receivers whenever possible to disrupt their routes and their timing with QB Kurt Warner. If the Patriots’ pass rushers reach Warner, they need to punish him. If a Rams receiver breaks free after the catch, the Patriots need to bring him down, fast and hard. New England’s linemen need to control the line of scrimmage, and the coverage teams need to control the return games. The Patriots need to play with a chip on their shoulders, but they must remain disciplined and in control. Foolish penalties cannot be tolerated. A 15-yard personal foul could cost New England seven points in the blink of an eye. Play hard, play physical, but play disciplined.

Coaching

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will need the game plan of a lifetime to limit the Rams’ attack. At least he has a game’s worth of experience against St. Louis from the teams’ Week 10 meeting. If not for a costly fumble in the red zone, the Patriots might have gone into halftime of that game leading by two scores, so they know they can play with the Rams. Belichick just needs to have them play better, and the way he schemes his defense will go a long way toward doing that. At the snap of the ball, keep an eye on how many players New England drops into coverage. You just might see a three-man rush at times with eight defenders dropping back. If there’s anyone you would want defending the Rams’ high-powered attack, it’s Belichick. But in the end, the players must make the plays.

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