| With a lot of fantasy leagues’ playoffs
starting this weekend, an interesting dilemma has developed that promises to make the task
of figuring out starting lineups a lot more challenging. For various reasons, a lot of
teams seem to be changing personalities down the stretch.
While it’s hard enough trying to figure out how most NFL teams are going to
perform from week to week — with rampant inconsistency being the only consistent
trend you can really hang your hat on this season — these personality makeovers
certainly don’t help matters.
There are two teams in particular which suddenly seem to have taken on different
identities that could alter the fantasy effectiveness of many of their key fantasy
performers — the 49ers and Bears.
The Niners — long known for being one of the staunchest advocates of the classic
West Coast offense with an emphasis on short- to intermediate-range finesse passes —
have suddenly gone smashmouth.
The Bears — long known for their bruising, run-oriented, black-and-blue style
— have subtly started to open up their passing game, a necessity in many
critics’ minds if they are to have any chance of succeeding in the playoffs.
How does this affect your fantasy thought process if you have any players from these
teams on your roster?
Let us count the ways.
In the case of the 49ers, injuries to QB Jeff Garcia and, to a lesser extent, WR
Terrell Owens, are in great part responsible for their smashmouth transformation.
Garcia, as I’m sure most of you know by now, has been downgraded from probable to
questionable for this Sunday’s game vs. the Eagles because of a rib injury suffered
last Sunday vs. Miami. While the odds are strong Garcia will gut it out vs. the Eagles
with potential home-field playoff considerations hanging in the balance, the odds are even
stronger that the Niners will use the same basic, run-heavy attack that worked so well vs.
the Dolphins.
Especially since the Niners will be facing an Eagles defense that excels vs. the pass
(ranked second in the league) but has had problems on occasion vs. the run (ranked 20th).
Does this make Garcia, whose surprisingly strong rushing ability has been one of the
key factors responsible for him becoming one of the league’s top signalcallers, less
of a fantasy threat?
Yes and no.
Obviously, his rushing TD potential is greatly reduced. At the same time, though, in
previous games this season, when Garcia’s mobility was restricted by a knee injury
that forced him to wear a protective brace in a few games, he was extremely effective as a
pure pocket passer, throwing for multiple scores most of the time to a variety of targets,
with the formidable Owens at the forefront.
Having said that, though, I’d be a lot more excited this weekend by the fantasy
potential of the Niners’ RB tandem of Hearst and rookie Kevan Barlow, who scored on a
pair of short goal-line bursts vs. Miami, than either Garcia or Owens.
While both these runners might tend to cancel each other out to a certain extent along
fantasy lines, they still both look like solid fantasy weapons this weekend.
Has Barlow become the 49ers’ goal-line specialist? Not necessarily. The Niners
appear to be rotating him and Hearst more often, but they maintain that field position and
down and distance are not factors in deciding which guy to go with at any point in time.
In other words, it’s the luck of the draw as far as short-distance scoring
opportunities are concerned.
But if the Niners’ greatly underrated offensive linemen pick up where they left
off vs. Miami and wear down the Eagles with mostly straight-ahead, no-nonsense blocking
— a style both they and head coach Steve Mariucci absolutely love — both Hearst
and Barlow could be in for big fantasy paydays.
Da Bears?
Real quickly, the best fantasy option is obviously rookie Anthony Thomas, who ran wild
vs. the Bucs last Sunday and probably needs to keep it up vs. the Redskins in Washington
for the Bears to pick up their 11th win.
But like most teams that have faced the Bears this season, the Skins will probably
cheat up on the line and go with a lot of eight-man fronts, thereby daring the Bears to go
downfield and ultimately beat them with their passing game.
And that makes the likes of WRs David Terrell, who broke through with his most
productive effort of the season last week vs. the Bucs, and TE Fred Baxter, whose
confidence has been bolstered by his outstanding TD grab in heavy traffic last Sunday,
fantasy weapons worth pondering more than ever.
In both the 49ers' and Bears’ cases, it’s a question of balance.
Cutting through the subterfuge and picking out the most likely scoring threats on those
teams this Sunday could very well tip the fantasy scales in your favor. |
