| As Andy Williams says in a holiday song,
it’s the most wonderful time of the year. I’d have to agree with that, though in
this case, not because of Christmas. I’m talking about the fantasy football playoff
races shaping up. While the little kids are making out their wish lists, their
fantasy-football-obsessed parents and siblings are racking their brains over playoff
implications. Most leagues are winding down on their regular seasons, with just a week
or two of games left. Many of those leagues’ trade deadlines have passed, and in some
of those leagues, no trading is equivalent to waiver wires and free-agent markets being
shut down. Basically, you are stuck with whom you have. Every decision you made from Draft
Day on comes to fruition in the next few weeks.
If you’re like me, these can be some trying times as a fantasy owner, unless, of
course, you’ve been eliminated from playoff contention. It’s a helpless feeling,
sitting there, knowing you need to win one or two games and other teams need to lose. Yet,
you can’t make minor maintenance moves (in most leagues) to "assure"
yourself of victory and a playoff berth. But don’t have an anxiety attack because
there’s nothing you can do for your team at this point, except pick your starters
each week. You have to accept that.
You also have to realize that these are the worst weeks for second-guessing yourself.
Realize that the helpless feeling you have may make you overanalyze your lineup changes.
Realize that since you can’t make moves to improve your roster in your opinion,
you’re going to look for ways to tinker with it, and the only way you can do that is
to bench players and start subs. I’m grappling with the same problem, so I
understand.
In one league (basic scoring, few yardage bonuses), I’ve clinched a playoff berth,
but there’s money to be had for the best record in the league and for winning the
division. Right now, I have a one-game lead over the second-place teams in those
categories, with one game to play. In this league, I’ve been toying with the idea of
benching starting RB Corey Dillon and starting RB Antowain Smith. Both have been
inconsistent, but for some reason, I keep thinking Smith is performing better. He has
improved over the course of the year, but he’s still all over the place in terms of
fantasy points from week to week.
Here, I will probably make the change this week, as it’s not a panic move. The key
to making this a non-panic move is, once I make the change, I stick with it. In other
words, if I start Smith this week, no matter what he does, I’ll need to stick with
him the following week. That shouldn’t be too tough, as Smith faces Cleveland and
Buffalo the next two weeks. Dillon faces Jacksonville and the N.Y. Jets, two defenses that
have been solid against the run lately.
I’m in two other leagues in which I need wins to make the playoffs. In the Pro
Football Weekly league (scoring, some yardage bonuses), I’m sitting at 5-7 and can
make the playoffs with two wins and a loss by the second-place team in my division. This
league is a bit tougher, though I don’t have a true panic move here. I’ll likely
start the same lineup I’ve started each week (other than bye weeks) and hope for the
best. Besides, the fate of my team isn’t fully in my team’s hands. I need that
loss from the other team, remember.
Then there’s the league I run (combo scoring/yardage). Riding high on a three-game
winning streak, I’ve snuck into a control-my-own-destiny situation. Here, I have a
minor problem, but I’m trying to avoid looking at my roster to avoid thinking about
it and panicking. On my bench last week, I had Eddie George, Derrick Alexander, Cris
Carter and Martin Gramatica. The two big questions are: Do I start George (against the
Vikings) in place of Garrison Hearst, who’s hot but facing St. Louis this week, and
do I return Carter to the lineup over Chris Chambers? Both receivers are going up against
suspect defenses, making my choices more difficult. I must not overthink these, though.
My best advice to you when it comes to playoff-berth panic is to get in your car and go
to the mall. Take in the holiday atmosphere and maybe do a little holiday shopping
yourself. It’ll take care of two things at once. Instead of debating which running
back you should start, you’ll debate whether Mom would like the pink sweater or the
blue socks or if Dad really wants that wide-screen TV, or if it will just be a present for
yourself in disguise. Sitting on Santa’s lap and asking him who he’d start this
week won’t help the problem, so avoid that. If you can do these things, you’ll
clear your head and get away from the reams of stats and analysis on your players at least
for a while, making your decision easier.
Then you can come home, turn on the Christmas music (if you so desire — I would),
wrap a few presents and make some real decisions about your fantasy team and its playoff
future.
Isn’t this time of the year great? |
