| In this week’s print edition of Pro
Football Weekly, I posed the question whether wide receivers were scoring more than
running backs — much more. Granted, the fact that teams generally use more wideouts
in a game than running backs has something to do with it, but the depth at wide receiver
seems to be much greater than usual. One fantasy football commissioner told me that in
his league, receivers have been making a bigger impact than running backs. So, has the NFL
become so pass-happy that wideouts are overtaking rushers as the most sought-after
players? It would take some extensive statistical research to figure that out, but I think
I found somewhere to start.
A look at the listing of total-point producers regardless of position reveals that,
entering Monday night’s Packers-Jaguars game, wide receivers have a sizable scoring
edge. Of players who have scored 30 points or more using the PFW scoring system, 31 are
wide receivers and 23 are running backs. Last season this statistic was available one week
later, and the gap was much more narrow, with wideouts holding a 31-29 edge.
The depth of the WR position is revealed in these numbers: Running backs hold a 6-5
edge among players with 60 points or more. But between 59 and 30 points, the wideouts own
a 26-17 edge. Rushers have been hurt this season by the ineffectiveness of Eddie George
and Emmitt Smith and injuries suffered by Jamal Anderson and Tyrone Wheatley. Other
sub-30-point rushers include Tiki Barber, Charlie Garner and James Stewart.
Perhaps there’s the answer right there. Perhaps the productive running backs of
last season are the unproductive ones of this season, and teams are having to adjust their
offenses accordingly. That’s certainly the case in Tennessee, where QB Steve McNair
and the passing game have become the focal point of the offense because of George’s
struggles.
Teams are, in fact, scoring fewer rushing touchdowns. At this point last season, the
NFL average for rushing scores by a team was 8.5. This season it’s down to 8.0. TD
returns have been much more prevalent this season, rising from 2.1 to 2.8 per team. So
perhaps defenses and special teams have made more of an impact than last season.
Whatever the case, running backs aren’t doing what they did last season. Whether
this trend will carry into next season is debatable, but it certainly has made this season
rather different.
Giant drop-off
In the second half of last season, Giants RB Ron Dayne’s production and his role
in the offense declined dramatically. Expect the same to happen again this season, as the
team looks more to RB Tiki Barber.
Entering New York’s Week 12 bye, Barber had broken 100 yards rushing in 2-of-3
games (118 and 124 yards) with two touchdowns. He also totaled 101 receiving yards in
those three games. It’s Barber’s versatility the Giants are after, and he’s
been giving it to them.
Dayne, on the other hand, has carried 10 times in the last two games, netting 23 yards.
After such a promising start to the season with three touchdowns and a 100-yard game in
his first five outings, Dayne has reached paydirt just once in his last six games with no
bonuses.
On the run
It’s hard to admit, but we might have to start viewing Panthers QB Chris Weinke as
a … uh … mobile quarterback.
He rushed for two touchdowns last week (one and six yards) and has a team-leading five
rushing scores for the season — this from a quarterback who was criticized by scouts
at draft time because of his apparent lack of mobility. So until the Panthers rectify
their running game, consider Weinke the team’s biggest rushing threat. |
