| Bundle up in those heavy clothes, folks, winter
is knocking on the door. It’s time for cold weather, snow and sleet, rock-solid
gridirons and footballs and ice cleats. And you know what that means? Run-oriented
offense. If you’re not used to preparing to shop for Christmas with the knowledge
that you could earn some extra dough come Week 16 or 17, then you’re probably not
used to having to make fantasy personnel decisions based on the weather. By the time
ol’ Jack Frost rolls around, your team is typically on vacation in Barbados.
But don’t sweat (it might get you sick, with the plummeting temperatures and all).
I’m here to tell you that Jack Frost can be your team’s offensive coordinator
and/or scouting director, if you use him properly.
Now, before you tell me my brain is clearly frozen solid, hear me out. When Frost comes
knocking, Old Man Winter is soon to follow. In northern cities, everyone knows what
happens to footballs in cold weather. They turn rock-solid and they get very, very
slippery. These two things are not very conducive to high-flying offense. Instead of
taking their chances, teams wisely choose to run the ball as much as possible.
That’s why it behooves you to sign or trade for some northward-bound running
backs. You’re taking a chance by changing your roster, but at least it will be an
educated guess that these guys will put up some fantasy points over the last few weeks of
the season. Most running backs in the league get better as they carry more in a game, and
no time of the season is riper for 30-carry performances than now, outdoors, up north.
Here are some backs worth looking at down the stretch:
In the freezer section: obvious choices
Curtis Martin — Not only is he leading the league in rushing, but
he gets a bye week this week to rest up for the stretch run. Add to that three of six home
games and one road game in Pittsburgh, and this guy clearly should be on your squad,
though he might be very tough to acquire.
Ahman Green — After two games in Detroit (dome) and Jacksonville,
Green finishes the season with five straight cold-weather games — three at home, one
in New York and one in Tennessee. Green has run well this year, and the Pack will likely
rely more on him once the weather gets bad. Besides, do you think the Packers receivers
want to catch a Brett Favre rocket in cold weather? I doubt that.
Corey Dillon — Despite Dillon’s inconsistencies and his
recent struggles, the Bengals will certainly rely on him with three home games and games
on the road in Cleveland, New York, Baltimore and Tennessee.
Jerome Bettis — The Steelers lead the league in rushing, but lost
their blocking tight end, Mark Bruener, for the season. That may or may not hinder the
running game, who knows? But the cold weather in Pittsburgh (four home games) and at
Tennessee, Baltimore and Cleveland should help keep the focus on running "The
Bus."
Keep refrigerated after opening: the not-so-obvious choices
Browns runners — Depending on the flavor of the week, James
Jackson, Jamel White and Ben Gay could shine, and in fact, all three could get some
significant playing time. Cleveland has three home games in its final seven, and its four
road games are in New England, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh.
Antowain Smith — The Patriots’ back suffers because of a
Week 16 bye and a Week 17 match in Carolina, but he could carry you into and through the
playoffs with three home games and games at Buffalo and New York.
Duce Staley — Five of seven cold-weather games is nice, but a
Week 15 showdown in San Fran and a Week 17 trip to Tampa Bay hurt him here.
Keep in a cool, dry place: tough calls
Eddie George — George could very well fit into the first
category, if he bounces back from a very disappointing season thus far. But his production
hurts him here. Games in Minnesota and Oakland also hurt him, but four home games give him
some cold-weather upside.
Anthony Thomas — If he can bounce back from being shut down by
the Packers last week, he could move up a few spots. Also, the conservative style of
offense helps him. But there’s also concern about the proverbial rookie wall. If not
for dome games in Minnesota and Detroit, Thomas would also rank higher.
Ron Dayne/Tiki Barber — The fact that they share time hurts them
a bit, though Barber seems to be doing better. Also, trips to Dallas and Minnesota and a
bye week hurts. |
