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"In our opinion" daily fantasy football columns

Thursday, Oct. 11, 2001

NOW OR NEVER?

Fantasy futures of Culpepper, Emmitt Smith and Horn might be reaching Week Five crossroads

By Dan Arkush, Executive editor

To all of you dear readers out there who convinced me so emphatically to select Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper as my first pick — and the fourth overall selection — in Pro Football Weekly’s inter-office fantasy league, I have a message:

I’m not ready to give up on Daunte just yet.

Nor am I ready to cut the cord with two other players who I hoped would be steady contributors in my fantasy starting lineup — Cowboys RB Emmitt Smith, my No. 2 running back behind the Steelers’ Jerome Bettis, and Saints WR Joe Horn, my No. 2 wide receiver behind the Broncos’ Rod Smith.

However — as I’m sure is the case with any of you who’ve pinned possibly false hopes on any of these players, concerns about this trio’s relative effectiveness continue to rise. To carry this point a step further, if Culpepper, Emmitt Smith and Horn continue to struggle in their games this coming weekend, yours truly will have to seriously start considering making some significant changes, with a trade of Culpepper becoming at least a possibility — provided I could get a couple of proven performers in return.

Actually, the more I analyze Culpepper’s season so far, the less worried I get. While his numbers aren’t nearly as spellbinding as they were last season — when he steadily emerged as one of fantasy football’s most explosive weapons — they really aren’t all that bad either.

The only NFL quarterbacks who have thrown for more yardage than Culpepper (1,123 yards) are the Rams’ Kurt Warner and the Ravens’ Elvis Grbac. In the Vikes’ loss at New Orleans last weekend, Culpepper still managed to throw for 332 yards and a pair of scores despite relentless pressure by the sack-happy Saints. While there are mistakes he is continuing to make that can’t help but turn your stomach — like the fumble he lost in the third quarter that was returned 38 yards by Saints S Chris Oldham for a decisive TD — there are also enough flashes to convince you to keep the faith.

Against New Orleans, Culpepper combined with his underachieving superstar duo of Randy Moss and Cris Carter for a quiet eight catches for 132 yards, including Moss’ first TD catch of the season, a 29-yarder in the first quarter. But there was also what looked like a sure TD catch by Carter that was taken away when plucky Saints CB Kevin Mathis stripped the ball with a diving tackle near the Saints’ goalline.

In our league, that’s six fantasy points for Culpepper out the window, since we’re talking about what would have been a 60-yard-plus TD reception.

But the brightest ray of hope regarding Culpepper is the Vikings’ opponent this Sunday at the Metrodome — the downtrodden Detroit Lions. After watching Warner carve up the Lions’ pass defense as if he was a chef at Benihana’s last Monday night, I’ll be greatly disappointed if Daunte doesn’t load up in a big way this Sunday.

I also have been worrying lately about Culpepper’s seemingly ineffective rushing. Against the Saints, he failed to gain a single yard on any of his scrambles or runs. But I felt better after realizing that his two rushing scores through four games put him on a pace for eight overall, which is one more than he managed last season.

Smith and Horn, however, are a different story. And if they don’t produce this Sunday — against the hapless Redskins and bruised and battered Panthers, respectively — I’m thinking it might be time to pull the plug on both these guys.

In Horn’s case, I’ve already formulated a contingency plan, picking up fellow WR Willie Jackson off the PFW fantasy waiver wire to replace injured Browns TE Ricky Dudley on my roster.

It just might be that Jackson, who appears to have developed a real nice chemistry with Saints QB Aaron Brooks that evolved in New Orleans’ stretch drive last season, has flat-out replaced Horn as the team’s No. 1 go-to guy. Horn gets one more chance to prove me wrong this Sunday, however, against the Panthers.

Clearly, Week Five figures to be the turning point for "The Arkush Boys" 2001 fantasy team.

Wish us luck.

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