Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2001

Buying into Priest is fantasy blasphemy

One big day against a bad run defense doesn’t make Holmes a rushing deity

By Andy Hanacek, Associate editor

One player who is certain to be the focus of trades across the nation is Chiefs RB Priest Holmes. Who better to trade at this point than Holmes, especially to an unsuspecting owner who simply watches "Sportscenter" to get his fantasy news? As far as that owner knows, Holmes is a sure bet after destroying the Redskins in Week Three.

Holmes scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) and posted 225 total yards. Certainly he carried several fantasy teams to victory that day. If you’re looking to improve your other starting spots and Holmes is expendable, trading him at this point would probably be your best move. You could likely take another owner for a bit of a ride, and you’d be better off. You see, I don’t fully believe in Holmes’ abilities to consistently post such outrageous numbers.

The Chiefs want Holmes to be their version of Marshall Faulk. For one day, at least, he’s done that. But consider this: He did it against the Redskins, who have given up 112 points in three games. The Chiefs don’t play the Redskins again this season. Instead, the Chiefs play such powerful defenses as Pittsburgh, San Diego (twice), Denver (twice), Oakland (twice), Philadelphia and Jacksonville.

We’ve also learned from Holmes’ career that he's the type of football player who really takes advantage of weaker opponents. That’s not a bad thing in real football, but it makes his fantasy value a little misleading if you don’t break his stats down game-by-game. That’s a lot for you to do, so I’ll just tell you the following:

Holmes’ best two games came in 1998 against the Bengals. Holmes rushed for 400 yards and three touchdowns on 63 carries in two games against Cincinnati. Not something to really get excited over, especially now that Holmes is no longer in the AFC Central. Holmes had two other impressive games against the Colts and Lions in ’98, and he put up solid number against the Steelers in the 2000 opener. Also, Holmes did have big runs in games against Tennessee and Pittsburgh in ’99 that bolstered his stats for those games, but if you take away those big runs, the stats don’t look as impressive as they did with the runs included.

Maybe Dick Vermeil’s style of offense is just what Holmes has needed all along. Maybe being a versatile option out of the backfield will give Holmes that added boost. Also, there’s a possibility that the Chiefs’ potentially explosive passing game will give Holmes more room to run than he had in Baltimore. But it seems to me as though a lot is needed for Holmes to bust out and be a consistent fantasy best bet.

The Chiefs do face the Cardinals, Colts and Jets in the next month or so, which could provide more big fantasy days for Holmes. None of those teams has proved it can stop the run effectively this season. But after those games, you might be best-served to trade him while his value is high, unless you’re willing to stick out the tough days he’ll have against the better defenses of the league.

The Archives
2001 - 2002 Season