Joel Buchsbaum's key college games

Making Florida one-dimensional the key for Holtz & Company

By Joel Buchsbaum, Contributing editor
As published in print Nov. 5, 2001

Gators WR Jabar Gaffney

The key to beating the Gators is to make them one-dimensional by taking away their running game and then concentrating on their two great wide receivers and making them beat you with somebody else. South Carolina is a very talented defensive team that could do just that if — and this is a huge if — the Gamecocks’ two speedy corners, Andre Goodman and Sheldon Brown, can handle Florida’s great starting wide receivers, Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell.

How much pressure the Gamecocks put on Florida QB Rex Grossman is another big part of the equation. That means Gamecocks OLB Kalimba Edwards is going to have to spend a lot of time in the face of Grossman, who is Florida’s best quarterback since Danny Wuerffel but not a gifted runner or improviser.

If Florida has a weakness, it would be its offensive line, where Kenyatta Walker is really missed. OLT Mike Pearson is good but somewhat limited athletically, OG Thomas Moody is overweight and having a terrible year and C-OG Zac Zedalis is courageous but not very good. Against Georgia, the Gators benched Moody, moved Zedalis to guard and started junior David Jorgensen at center.

The Gators like to rotate Robert Gillespie and Earnest Graham at running back, but neither is a special back like Fred Taylor. And for a small back, Gillespie is not that elusive. Graham is the better of the two backs when he holds on to the ball (three fumbles vs. Georgia, but he lost only one).

On defense, Florida has two really talented players in DE Alex Brown and CB Lito Sheppard. Sheppard is a big-play corner who also excels as a punt returner. He will take chances and usually makes them pay off. Brown is a great pure pass rusher with exceptional quickness and closing speed. He is lighter and playing harder this year, but he still quits on some plays, and his hustle in pursuit is not all it should be. If Brown has success early, he can take over the game. But if you frustrate him early, he has a tendency to vanish for the rest of the game.

A key player for Florida will be MLB Andra Davis. He looked outstanding against Mississippi State but also has had games in which he missed tackles and looked limited. (Note: Davis has been playing with a cast on his wrist.)

On offense, South Carolina QB Phil Petty needs to play within himself, not turn the ball over and be efficient. He is an average passer and runner with a pretty good supporting cast around him. Brian Scott is his go-to receiver, and while Scott has good size and skill, he is not a burner.

In Derek Watson and Andrew Pinnock, South Carolina has two running backs who can make a difference if their offensive line gives them a little room to run. Watson is a skillful, versatile runner with enough speed to get outside and a very good receiver. Pinnock is a real horse who breaks a lot of tackles, and at 250 pounds, he still has quick feet and good run skills.

If the game comes down to a field goal, Florida has the edge with Jeff Chandler, who has come back strong after a slow start. Chandler gets the ball up quickly and high, so it is very hard to block his kicks. Sheppard can make a difference on returns.

Both teams are very well-coached. Florida’s Steve Spurrier is the top offensive mind in the college game, and Lou Holtz and his son, Skip, have done a great job at South Carolina. Getting Florida at home could be huge for the Gamecocks if they can hold their own early in the game. Obviously, the Gators will look to take the crowd out of the game by grabbing an early lead. But if they don’t, the crowd and crowd noise could work in the Gamecocks’ favor.

Prediction: Florida 24, South Carolina 21

Oregon has been living on the edge for the past two years, but the Ducks had just one loss in that span, until Stanford upset them in a wild shootout in which QB Joey Harrington could not work one more miracle. The Bruins had been the best team in the Pacific-10 — until Oct. 27, when Stanford upset them in another wild shootout — because their defense had gone from being very bad to very good, and they were controlling the ball with DeShaun Foster running as well as any back in the country. While Foster will fumble at times, Bruins QB Cory Paus had been playing almost error-free football for most of the year until last Saturday, when he was picked off four times. Unlike Harrington, he rarely has had to bring his team from behind late in games and failed in that regard against Washington State, throwing two late interceptions when he could have thrown the ball away.

Quarterbacks — Paus has learned to play within himself before the Stanford and Washington State games, when he was bird-dogging his primary receiver and putting passes up for grabs. Before injuring his right thumb against Stanford, he threw his first interception of the year and was only 5-of-16 passing. Scott McEwan, who played well after replacing Paus in the Stanford game, started last week. But after throwing two picks, he was replaced by Paus, who may have trouble gripping the ball. Harrington can look average for three quarters and then turn into Superman with the game on the line. He does not have a really strong arm, and his throwing mechanics and ability to set his feet are very important. If he can step and throw, he can really zip it. But when he is off balance, he can throw some very ugly passes. In Oregon’s system, he generally has one or two audible options if the defense is in a position to stop the play the coaches call, and he does a very good job of picking the right play. Last week’s six TD passes against Arizona State may have put him back in the Heisman race.

Running backs — Despite his fumbles, Foster has had a Heisman Trophy-type year and could be a first-round draft pick if he finishes strong and goes to an all-star game like the Senior Bowl. Foster has run skills, vision and the power and desire to gain yards after contact, but he also takes a beating and does a very poor job of protecting the ball. He carries it out away from his body. Oregon likes to rotate senior Maurice Morris with Onterrio Smith, a sophomore transfer from Tennessee. Morris is not all he was cracked up to be because he is an upright runner who gets hit a lot and is not overly elusive.

Receivers — Harrington has two go-to receivers in WR Keenan Howry, who had a monster game with four TD catches against Arizona State, and TE Justin Peelle. Peelle catches the ball well, finds the soft spots in the defense, can split the middle at times and is a clutch player. UCLA really has no superstars and needs Brian Poli-Dixon, who was out with a separated shoulder, to step up for this game. At almost 6-5, Dixon will have a huge size advantage on Oregon’s potential All-America CB Rashad Bauman, who is only about 5-8.

Offensive linemen — If UCLA has a weakness, this is it. But I don’t know if Oregon has the defensive line to take advantage of it, and the Bruins’ unit is better than the sum of its offensive parts.

Defense — No team has made the strides on defense that UCLA has made with new defensive coordinator Phil Snow calling the shots. Snow likes to rotate his defensive linemen to keep everyone fresh. The stars of the Bruins’ defense are MLB Robert Thomas and SS Marques Anderson. Thomas is rarely blocked, which allows him to consistently run to the ball, and he is very well-prepared. Anderson is explosive and hard-hitting and may be the best hitter and tackler on the defense. However, he can still be inconsistent in coverage but is much-improved, especially when it comes to playing the pass. The Ducks’ biggest star is Bauman, their smallest player. He is a tough, feisty, little corner with excellent quickness and cover skills. What people tend to forget is, outside of the secondary, Oregon had to replace every starter on the defensive unit this year, and the Ducks don’t have a lot of size on that side of the ball.

Coaching — From a coaching standpoint, the bottom line is Mike Bellotti and his staff have made an Oregon program with middle-of-the-pack talent the best team on the West Coast for the past seven years. Under Bob Toledo, the Bruins have had three great years and two very disappointing years when they underachieved.

Prediction: UCLA 27, Oregon 23

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