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Falcons RB
T.J. Duckett
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Pro football scouting is far more advanced than it was in the old days. Teams put all
the statistical information on computers, where it’s easier to access. Since the
draft is in April — it was once held shortly after the end of the season — teams
have much more time to analyze prospects and look at game film. They have a Combine in
Indianapolis, where many of those eligible for the draft come to be timed, measured and
interviewed.
With all this help, though, I sometimes wonder if the teams are making any better
selections than 50 years ago, when they made their draft picks based on evaluations in the
Street & Smith’s college football yearbook.
In this year’s draft, for instance, the Falcons picked RB T.J. Duckett —
after they’d signed Warrick Dunn to a big contract as a free agent. Dunn had left
Tampa Bay because he’d been supplanted as the main back by Mike Alstott and
free-agent signee Michael Pittman.
Falcons head coach Dan Reeves said on Draft Day that Dunn would get 20-25 carries a
game. So where does that leave Duckett? Wise guys in the media suggested maybe Atlanta is
going to the wishbone. Since they’re going with second-year QB Michael Vick, a great
athlete who has yet to show any consistency passing the ball, maybe that would be the best
idea.
With the 10th pick in the draft, the Bengals picked OT Levi Jones, who was considered a
lower first-rounder by anybody else. The Bengals easily could have traded down, obtained
another draft pick and still picked Jones.
There’s a reason Cincinnati has consistently been in the bottom quadrant of the
NFL in recent years.
There’s also a curious mind-set that affects teams on Draft Day, when they
can’t pull the trigger on a logical choice. Often, it’s on a quarterback. Teams
have become very wary of picking quarterbacks near the top of the draft because it’s
so difficult to evaluate them. First-round flops have been frequent. Meanwhile, the Super
Bowl quarterbacks this year were a sixth-round choice (Tom Brady) and an undrafted free
agent (Kurt Warner).
There was no such mental paralysis this year. The expansion Texans made David Carr
their pick, and the Lions, drafting in the third position, went for Joey Harrington.
But there’s plenty of second-guessing on those picks. Carr generally faced less
than top-level competition during his time at Fresno State. He also has a low release
point, which makes many think he will have passes knocked down frequently by defensive
linemen. Some scouts questioned whether Harrington could throw long, but he played in a
pro-style offense at Oregon and threw all types of passes against top-level competition.
He’s also more mobile than Carr, a big factor in today’s game.
There’s another important point about the two quarterbacks: Harrington has been a
good quarterback for three years, improving each year. Carr had one big year as a senior,
shooting him to the top of the charts.
Perhaps he’ll be the next Troy Aikman. More likely, though, he’ll be lumped
with Trent Dilfer, another Fresno State quarterback who went early in the first round but
has bounced around from team to team in a mediocre pro career.
This year the mental paralysis came on cornerbacks. Philip Buchanon of Miami (Fla.) was
considered the second-best corner, after Texas’ Quentin Jammer, but teams were wary
because of his lack of size, just under 5-10. Expected to go in the top 10, he kept
falling until the Raiders traded up to get him with the 17th pick. Buchanon’s lack of
size didn’t bother the Raiders because they have Charles Woodson, a physical 6-1,
205-pounder, on the other side. When they play big receivers like Terrell Owens and David
Boston, the Raiders will make sure Woodson is lined up opposite them.
As teams passed on Buchanon, a curious thing happened: They also passed on other
corners, so Florida’s Lito Sheppard lasted until the Eagles took him with the 26th
pick. The 49ers, who had thought they were drafting too low to get a good corner, would
have taken Sheppard. With him off the board, they went for Mike Rumph, who had played
opposite Buchanon at Miami (Fla.).
The Indianapolis Combine also is often more of a hindrance than a help because
it’s geared more to scouts than coaches. Scouts love to recommend players who have
good "measurables" — size, speed, vertical leap, etc. That doesn’t
always translate into good football, though. The best players are those who make plays,
and they aren’t always the fastest, biggest or most athletic.
An example from this year: California OT Langston Walker, who was taken by the Raiders
as the first of their two second-round picks.
Years ago, the Cowboys, in the Tom Landry-Tex Schramm-Gil Brandt years, set up physical
standards for players, and they would sometimes even take basketball players who fit their
physical standards.
Peter Gent, who became a good wide receiver for a time, was one, though they probably
regretted taking Gent when he later skewered them in his thinly disguised fiction,
"North Dallas 40."
Other teams have been less successful when they have looked primarily at physical
characteristics. Al Davis has a long history of thinking he could turn sprinters into
football players, James Jett being the latest example, or being seduced by size. More than
30 years ago, he drafted a 7-foot defensive lineman, Richard Sligh, a gentle soul who
wouldn’t hurt a fly … or a quarterback or a running back.
Walker is huge, 6-8, 345 pounds, but he was perhaps the fourth-best lineman on a team
that went 1-10 last fall. His performance at the Combine apparently impressed scouts, but
he wasn’t playing football. He’s not likely to play much football for the
Raiders either.
The draft is not the only means of building a winner in the NFL. Teams who make smart
moves in free agency (as the Raiders have done lately) can build successfully that way.
The draft, though, provides a way of bringing in youth at relatively low salaries and
building a more stable foundation.
But the draft has to be worked right. And despite all the help they have now, it’s
obvious many teams are still struggling to get it right.
Glenn Dickey is a columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle who has been covering pro
football since 1967. E-mail him at Gdickey@sfchronicle.com |
