| Sun Bowl, Noon EST, Dec. 31 at
The Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas Washington State (9-2) vs. Purdue (6-5)
Sometimes bowl games that look like a dog with fleas, turn out to be classics. We're
hoping this is one of those games. Washington State was sluggish over its last four games
of the season and will play Purdue, six weeks since its last loss, to Washington. Purdue's
offense never got going this year, failing to ever make up for the loss of QB Drew Brees
and WR Vinny Sutherland. If the Sun Bowl is going to be the least bit memorable,
Washington State has to get its rhythm early and Purdue's offense must show a sign of
life.
Last year's Big Ten title team was extremely young with a cagey veteran at quarterback
and an athletic and active defense. Purdue is still very young, but the defense is even
stronger. Unfortunately, they're going through growing pains on offense. The Boilermakers
lost four of their last five games and five of their last seven, failing to find any sort
of rhythm with freshman QB Brandon Hance. Head coach Joe Tiller changed over to Kyle
Orton, who failed to do much more. Between the two freshmen, they threw for 2,211 yards
and 11 touchdowns, but also tossed 13 interceptions and neither ever looked comfortable.
After losing the job to Orton, Hance threw a fit and announced he was transferring. Now
Orton has the job to himself and while he has a stronger arm than Hance, he doesn't have
Hance's mobility.
Washington State's offense was humming through the easy part of its schedule, then
everything clicked in the Cougars' best performance of the season in their most important
win of the season at Stanford. The Cougars got a brilliant season out of QB Jason Gesser
who threw for 25 touchdown passes. His huge receivers, 6-2 Nakoa McElrath, 6-6 Mike Bush
and the 6-2 Jerome Riley combined for 142 catches for 2,515 yards and 23 touchdowns as
possibly the most fearsome trio of receivers in college football. After starting the
season on fire, RB Dave Minnich injured his knee and missed wins over Stanford and Montana
State. John Tippins filled in, but the offense never really operated quite as well and
when Minnich returned, lacking that old burst. No one will benefit more from the rest than
Minnich and the offense might take off if he's back to form.
Players to watch: Kickers may often be overlooked, but there's not a better
all-around leg in the college football than Purdue's Travis Dorsch. He made 20-of-25 field
goals, only missing kicks from 50, 59, 57, 52 and 41 yards (the 41-yarder came in the
quagmire against Indiana). He was also one of the nation's top punters, averaging 48.4
yards per kick. He came out on pooch punts, but he was still brilliant. Purdue also boasts
one of the nation's best young safeties as sophomore Stuart Schweigert made a team-leading
90 tackles and six interceptions.
Washington State also boasts one of the nation's best safeties in senior Lamont
Thompson, who also lead his team in tackles (83) and interceptions (8). The 213-pounder
made several All-America teams with his brilliant play-making ability and as the heart of
the secondary.
Purdue will win if... the offense shows up and Orton can match Gesser big play
for big play. Indiana and Notre Dame don't exactly scare teams with their defenses and
Purdue failed to do much against either one scoring a total of 26 points and amassing a
mere 66 yards on the ground. The Cougar run defense should have little trouble stopping
Purdue's anemic running game, which means Orton's going to have to make plays. We're not
sure he can.
Washington State will win if... the Cougars can hold Purdue under 100 yards
rushing. In Purdue's five losses, the most the Boilermakers gained on the ground was 83
yards. In Purdue's six wins, the running game gained more than 100 yards in all but one,
against Iowa, and the Boilermakers only won that because Hance had his best all-around
game of the year and they got an interception return for a score. If the Purdue running
game can't take the heat off Orton, forget about it.
Our Prediction: Washington State 31, Purdue 16
Bowl games often have wild surprises and Purdue needs one to pull this off. The
Boilermakers just don't have the offense to match Washington State if its offense is
playing well, but don't count out Purdue's defense. We think the Boilermaker defense will
keep WSU in check for while, but they'll only be able to play the field-position game for
so long before Gesser and the offense strikes. It'll be close early, then turnovers will
cost Purdue and the Cougars pull away late.
Silicon Valley Bowl, 3 p.m. EST,
Dec. 31 at Spartan Stadium in San Jose, Calif.
Fresno State (11-2) vs. Michigan State (6-5)
Last year's Silicon Valley Bowl couldn't have been less intriguing, but Air Force and
Fresno State played one of the season's best bowl games, a coming-out party for Fresno
State QB David Carr, who threw for 391 yards with five touchdowns passes. How good this
bowl game will be all depends on Michigan State. We're sure Fresno State will come in
fired up and razor sharp, but Michigan State has been as flaky as it comes this season and
needs to be equally pumped up. Each team has superstars on offense with several future NFL
players. Fresno State QB David Carr, Michigan State RB T.J. Duckett and WR Charlie Rogers
might be worthy of Top 10 consideration.
Michigan State was a dark-horse in the Big Ten title chase, but the Spartans were
ridiculously inconsistent all season. They collapsed in the final seconds against
Northwestern and couldn't handle the Minnesota running game. After appearing to change
their season around with wins over Wisconsin and Michigan, the Spartans went into the tank
in losing three straight to Indiana, Purdue and Penn State. That means four of MSU's five
losses came to non-bowl teams while the Spartans were 2-1 against bowl-bound squads. Does
that mean Michigan State only gets up for the big games? Maybe, but this team has too much
talent to not give Fresno State a few problems.
Fresno State had a weird season in the perception of the national media. With wins over
Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin, the Bulldogs were the nation's darlings on their way
to a 6-0 start. A late loss to a good Boise State team and a shootout against Hawaii took
them out of the national spotlight and the Bulldogs never received the credit they
deserved the rest of the season even though they were 3-0 over bowl teams. As it turned
out, Hawaii was really good and the Bulldogs win over Colorado looks even better in
retrospect. Carr’s offense fattened up its stats over the last five games of the
season, averaging 52 points per game.
Players to watch: If you've missed the David Carr Show this year, here's your
chance to watch one of the nation's best players. Carr was brilliant all season, throwing
for 42 touchdowns and topping 300 yards 11 times and going over 400 yards twice. He threw
for at least two touchdowns in every game except the Colorado win. Helping him are three
brilliant receivers: Rodney Wright, Bernard Berrian and Charles Smith are all NFL caliber.
The other big-time NFL prospect is DT Alan Harper who might be the most active defensive
lineman in the country. A rock against the run, he's also great at getting into the
backfield as evident in his 12 sacks.
Michigan State has two of college football's biggest superstars in Duckett and
sophomore Rogers. Rogers averaged 21.1 yards per catch, scoring 13 touchdowns. After only
catching one pass for 13 yards in the win over Iowa, he was unstoppable over the last
seven games catching 44 passes for 931 yards and scoring 11 times including a brilliant
five catch, 206-yard, two-touchdown day against Wisconsin. Duckett didn't have the
All-America season many were expecting, but he was still plenty effective running for over
100 yards six times. Duckett is better when rested and with a month off; the 250-pound
junior should be amazing.
Fresno State will win if... the running game gets going. Both teams should have
little trouble throwing the ball, but Michigan State, even though FSU has the
statistically better running game, has the edge on the ground with Duckett. If the
Spartans keep moving the chains, they'll keep Carr off the field. Fresno State needs to do
the same thing with RBs Paris Gaines and Josh Levi. The Spartans gave up 247 yards per
game in their five losses this year. While the Colorado offense is far different now than
it was in late August, FSU held the Buffalo running game to 66 yards.
Michigan State will win if... the Spartan defense is extremely fired up. The
defensive line is average, but the back seven, led by linebacker Josh Thornhill, is pretty
solid. The pass defense will be the best David Carr faced all season long. The only team
with any semblance of a secondary that the Bulldogs faced was Colorado and Carr only threw
for 198 yards and one touchdown. If Michigan State's secondary can frustrate Carr, even a
little bit, the Spartan offense will take care of the rest.
Our Prediction: Fresno State 41, Michigan State 34
We don't see any way that these two defenses can stop each other's offense. If the
weather is sloppy, both teams have the running games to slog it out on the ground. If
weather conditions aren't a factor, this will be a track meet with the two quarterbacks
combining for at least 600 yards of passing. While we don't think Fresno State is a
BCS-type team, they are plenty talented, too experienced and just as fast as Michigan
State. If this gets into the shootout we think this will be, look for the Spartans to have
plenty of chances to win, but in the end, we just think Carr will be too brilliant for
MSU.
Liberty Bowl, 4 p.m. EST, Dec. 31 at
Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tenn.
BYU (12-1) vs. Louisville (10-2)
There isn't a better matchup of winners in a bowl game this year than the Liberty Bowl,
with 22 combined wins between these two teams, but both come in with big-time black eyes.
BYU's undefeated dream season came to a thundering crash at Hawaii, where it gave up eight
touchdown passes and 72 points. Even though the Cardinals had nothing to play for,
Louisville played miserably against TCU, losing 37-22, taking the Cardinals out of
consideration for a Top 15 final ranking.
There isn't a team more fun to watch than BYU. The offense is explosive with a
high-octane passing game and the defense couldn't stop a junior high team. Every game is
high scoring and if it is close, few teams have the flair for the dramatic like BYU, which
pulled out games over Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming and Mississippi State in the final
moments. The Cougars suffered a crucial break when they lost Doak Walker Award-winning RB
Luke Staley to an ankle injury, taking away BYU's best weapon. RB Ned Stearns and Paul
Peterson are good, and the combination of the two is up to Staley's level.
Louisville chugged through the Conference USA season winning its second straight title
with relative ease. Forgetting the loss to TCU when UL already had everything wrapped up,
no C-USA team really gave the Cardinals much of a fight. The Cardinals got another
brilliant year out of QB Dave Ragone and played outstanding defense. Have they really been
tested? Illinois was the one top-shelf team the Cardinals faced and they were blown out
34-10. Can Louisville handle a balanced offense like BYU's? With the disputable exception
of Hawaii, no one else has.
Players to watch: QB Brandon "The Domanator" Doman had a ridiculous
season, throwing for 3,542 yards and 33 touchdowns, but someone had to be on the receiving
end of all those passes. Junior WR Reno Mahe was the main target. Mahe caught 91 passes
for 1,211 yards and nine touchdowns and was red-hot over the last two games against Hawaii
and Mississippi State, catching 24 passes for 370 yards and four touchdowns. Without
Staley, Mahe carries the ball a little as well, with eight carries for 69 yards against
Hawaii. While the Cougar defense is one of the nation's worst, it is not LB Justin Ena's
fault. He's a super-athletic player and, with 101 tackles, was one of the few bright spots
on the Cougar D.
Louisville has the best pair of defensive ends in college football in sophomore Dewayne
White and junior Michael Josiah. The two are pass-rushing terrors that combined for
26 sacks and 38 tackles for loss. White is the bigger and better of the two, but if BYU
concentrates on stopping him, Josiah will dominate. You can't stop both of them. Junior FS
Anthony Floyd is one of the nation's best all-around players as a great run supporter and
solid coverman.
BYU will win if... the Cougars don't turn the ball over. Against Hawaii, the
Cougars fumbled the ball nine times, lost six and threw an interception. Against
Mississippi State, the Cougars gave it up five times. They committed five turnovers
against UNLV and four against Wyoming. BYU gets into trouble when it gives the ball up and
Louisville's offense certainly doesn't need any help. The Cougars also need to find a
rushing element. Louisville's pass defense is decent and if BYU has no running game, the
offense will have trouble keeping up with the Cards.
Louisville will win if... Ragone can stop salivating. The UL QB had to be
drooling while watching film of the Hawaii game and few quarterbacks are as hot as Ragone,
throwing for 1,129 yards and 11 touchdowns (and only one interception) in his last four
games. Ragone's streak has coincided with the return of WR Deion Branch from injury four
games ago. During Ragone’s hot steak, Branch has 35 catches for 557 yards and five
scores. The UL offense has to keep up the pressure throughout the game to hold off a BYU
offense that can strike at any time.
Our Prediction: Louisville 52, BYU 38
While Louisville won't put up 72 points and Ragone won't throw eight touchdown passes,
there's absolutely no reason to think the Cougar defense has any hope of stopping the
Cards. After losing to TCU and losing last year's Liberty Bowl, motivation should not be a
problem. What will be a problem for BYU is the lack of a running game and stopping White
and Josiah from hitting Doman. If Staley were playing, we might think differently, but we
just don't see how BYU can win.
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