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Ask the Experts

Who will make the biggest impact as a rookie and who will rise and fall the most in the first round?

By the editors of Pro Football Weekly
April 17, 2002

ProFootballWeekly.com asks Michael Holbrook, managing editor of special projects, and Jeff Reynolds and Nolan Nawrocki, associate editors of special projects, for their predictions regarding two of the more intriguing questions from the upcoming NFL draft.

Which player will impact his team the most as a rookie?

Holbrook: If the Cleveland Browns pick up T.J. Duckett or William Green with their 16th pick in the first round, they will immediately boost their anemic rushing offense. And with a running game, QB Tim Couch will be that much better passing the ball and the offense will score more points, which will make their solid defense even more effective. I guess what I’m saying is the Browns are one good running back away from a playoff berth. I honestly believe that. The team has assembled some great defensive talent and Couch is a solid enough quarterback to get the job done — as long as he has a running back who can pick up the big yards when needed. Cleveland won seven games last year while averaging just 84.4 rushing yards. Think how good the Browns will be with a potential star like Duckett or Green.

Reynolds: I agree with Holbrook that the Browns adding a running back will have a major impact in the win column and benefit the rest of the offensive talent. But I would argue that the Arizona Cardinals, who now share a division with pass-happy St. Louis and San Franciso, are in serious need of a force on the defensive line. With DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, a second-round pick from Nebraska in 2001, returning from knee surgery, a veteran LB corps and the addition of CB Duane Starks, Arizona is in prime position for Sunday’s draft. Its offensive line is set, RB Thomas Jones is getting the ball and TE Freddie Jones improves and balances the offense. The only need on that side of the ball is a complementary receiver to David Boston, which could be had in the third round with the 81st pick, or later with a compensatory selection. That makes defensive line priorities No. 1 and 1A. With the 12th pick, I like Wisconsin DT Wendell Bryant to immediately upgrade the Cards’ front four. He is extremely quick, though not fully developed physically, and will be a handful as an NFL defensive tackle. Then in the second round, don’t be surprised if head coach Dave McGinnis pushes for more defensive help like Florida DE Alex Brown or BYU DE Ryan Denney to provide further assistance and increase Bryant’s impact. Will those moves take Arizona to the playoffs? Maybe not. But the defense will be better than the No. 28 overall it finished last season.

Nawrocki: The question posed would be best answered after the draft, when it will be clear who will be thrusted into starting roles, such as at tailback in Cleveland or at quarterback in Cincinnati. While certain prospects may be best primed to make an immediate impact, they cannot if they are stuck on the depth chart behind a Pro-Bowl veteran. The players who strike me as the most ready to excel immediately at the next level are Oklahoma S Roy Williams, Boston College RB William Green, Auburn OG Kendall Simmons, Miami TE Jeremy Shockey, Michigan WR Marquise Walker, UCLA RB DeShaun Foster, Fresno State QB David Carr and LSU WR Josh Reed. Except maybe Carr, the only prospect who already knows his future and has a jumpstart on his competition, all come from big college programs and have faced top-notch competition. Even more important, none are intimidated easily, which is vital when facing NFL superstars, and all are very confident in their abilities. Williams is sure to deliver neck-jerking hits reminiscent of Packers S Chuck Cecil. Green is built more solidly than former Heisman Trophy-winning RB Bo Jackson. He is an unbelievable physical specimen. Simmons has the heart of a lion. Shockey is the most complete tight end in the draft in years. Walker may slip in the draft, like RB Anthony Thomas last year, but is an excellent possession receiver with great size. Foster can slice and dice through defenses, and Reed is the master of the big play.

Which player will rise the most in the first round and which will fall the most?

Holbrook: It sure sounds like Georgia DE Charles Grant is soaring up draft boards around the league faster than anyone else. For a guy who was projected to go in the lower third of the first round as recently as two weeks ago, Grant is like a meteor. Many experts see him going to the Saints at No. 13 and there is even talk that the Vikings, at No. 7, might entertain drafting Grant. The biggest drop will probably be by Oklahoma S Roy Williams, a top-five talent who plays a position that isn’t considered to be a high-round priority by most teams. If he isn’t selected by Detroit, Buffalo or Dallas, he could fall to Arizona at No. 12. If that happens, the Cardinals should rejoice because they’ll be getting a premiere playmaker for their secondary.

Reynolds: Nobody seems to be able to place Oregon QB Joey Harrington, but many team reps are giddy about the type of player they could get if Harrington falls into their lap. Had another team owned the top pick, it may well have been Joey Harrington. But now that Detroit (No. 3) and Buffalo (No. 4) are all but out of the picture, Harrington may fall to Cincinnati, who owns the 10th pick. Better yet, if you are a Redskins fan, the Bengals are hedging on their intention to add the savvy signal-caller because they are in talks with the Patriots about acquiring QB Drew Bledsoe. That means Harrington, once thought to be a top-five pick, may end up going as late as 18th to Washington. However, he could still land on his feet in the top 10. Stay tuned. A player moving up, who could go as high as fourth to the Bills, is DT Ryan Sims from North Carolina. I like Sims and rank him above his peers at the position. If he slips past Minnesota at No. 7, it would be a major upset.

Nawrocki: Team needs will likely determine who falls the farthest, and most teams are set at the RB position, with the exception of Cleveland and maybe Baltimore. I think T.J. Duckett’s stock has really risen since the season ended and he will be the first back selected, likely at No. 16 to Cleveland, leaving Boston College RB William Green to fall much later than expected in the first round. I think two sleepers who could rise the most by sneaking into the first round are Kansas State S Jon McGraw and UAB OLB-DE Bryan Thomas, who both had excellent Combine performances.

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