Baltimore (–3) vs. N.Y. Giants
This is the Super Bowl everyone is against — for all the wrong reasons.
Will this Super Bowl be as flashy as last year’s? No. Will it be as high-scoring?
Probably not. But will it be as competitive, as close? Oh, yes. Yes, indeed.
This is a Super Bowl that will have gamblers on the edge of their seats for the entire
game. Defense will reign supreme. Points will come at a premium. And one play will
ultimately decide the outcome.
That’s my take, at least.
From a numbers perspective, the Ravens should be the favorite — and they are. The
Ravens are 13-5-1 against the spread, while the Giants are 11-7. Both teams have held up
well in road games, which the Super Bowl basically is. On the road, the Ravens are 7-3
against the spread, and the Giants are 6-2.
But the Ravens are the hotter team, having won 10 in a row. They’ve also won more
convincingly, with an average margin of victory during the streak of 17.1 points. During
the Giants’ seven-game winning streak, they’ve won by an average of 14.7 points,
but that includes the 41-0 walloping of the Vikings. Remove that game — which many
people believe was an aberration — and the margin drops to 10.5 points in six games.
Sunday’s game, though, won’t be decided by such margins. In fact, I’m
predicting the slimmest of margins — Giants 10, Ravens 9. Matt Stover will account
for Baltimore’s scoring (fittingly), but I’m not quite sure how the Giants will
score their one TD. Will it be a Kerry Collins TD pass or a Jason Sehorn interception
return? Decisions, decisions.
Regardless, the Giants will prevail, thus covering the spread. Both teams have been
perfect in the postseason against the spread, but the Giants are clearly the more balanced
team, and I think that will prove to be the difference.
Sure, the Giants are going to have all kinds of trouble running the ball against the
Ravens, so Collins will prove key. He’s as hot as he’s ever been, coming off an
outstanding performance against the Vikings.
Collins might be able to make plays against Ravens CBs Duane Starks and Chris
McAlister. That’s not a slight against them, but given that they’re in man
coverage most of the time, Collins could hook up with WRs Ike Hilliard and Amani Toomer.
Of course, the Giants’ offensive line will have to keep Collins upright for that
to happen. But that’s not a shabby front five New York boasts. I suspect the Giants
will work the short-to-intermediate routes first so Collins can get rid of the ball
quickly.
Then Collins will look long, and he’ll connect. One big play could be all it takes
to solve the Ravens’ defense.
Basically, my rationale is this: Both defenses are top-notch, but the Giants’
offense has more potential for a big play than the Ravens’. Hence, I’m going
with New York.
Agrest’s pick: New York
Last round: 1-1
Season record: 42-35-1 |
