| One of the more difficult things about making predictions in
this year’s playoffs is the fact that few of the top teams have much playoff
experience. For the Titans and the Rams, this is their first playoff appearance in several
years. The Buccaneers have just three playoff games under their belts in this generation,
while the Jaguars, a 5-year-old franchise, has the most experience. All that goes to
show just how unpredictable this NFL season has been. And with the usual contenders long
gone, we have to figure out who the pretenders among the final four are and which teams
are legitimate. Whenever I try to do that, there are two factors I consider heavily:
defense and the running game.
Tennessee (+7) at Jacksonville
The good news for Jaguars fans came when their beloved laid a 62-spot on Miami last
week. The blowout allowed QB Mark Brunell, still recovering from an injured knee, to get
some unplanned rest and to avoid further injury. But the bad news is that the Titans come
calling on Sunday. Tennessee swept the Jags this season and has won 4-of-5 career games at
the stadium formerly known as the Gator Bowl. Although we’ve all heard the cliché
about how hard it is to beat a team three times in a season, we shouldn’t forget that
there’s usually a very good reason a team wins two games over the same opponent.
The key to this game is Titans QB Steve McNair. While he has not set the world on fire
in the playoffs, he has avoided big, ugly mistakes, allowing Tennessee’s running game
and aggressive defense to carry the day (along with the occasional miraculous
special-teams play). But in this game, my hunch is that the Titans will need some big
plays from McNair, either on the ground or through the air. McNair should have confidence
against Jacksonville, having thrown five TD passes against the Jags last time out. If
McNair gets the passing game going, it will put the Jacksonville defense on its heels and
neutralize the zone-blitz approach the Jags have used this season. That will make Eddie
George, who has had his finest season, more effective.
The Jaguars’ offense is very dangerous, with big-time playmakers at running back
(Fred Taylor) and wide receiver (Jimmy Smith). But Tennessee’s "D" did an
outstanding job of containing an offense chock-full o’ playmakers last week vs. Indy.
My hunch is that the Titans do it again. I’m picking Tennessee to win straight up, so
taking them with a touchdown is easy.
Neely’s pick: Tennessee
Tampa Bay (+13½) at St. Louis
Everybody and his brother appears to be on the St. Louis bandwagon, won over by the
Rams’ prolific offense and the too-good-to-be-true story of QB Kurt Warner. Fine.
I’ll admit, the Rams’ offense is awfully good, thanks in large part to Marshall
Faulk, the best all-around running back of this era. Throw in WR Isaac Bruce, who is as
good as anyone when healthy, and speedy complements Az-Zahir Hakim and Torry Holt, and you
have an offense that is unstoppable. Right?
Wrong. The Buccaneers’ defense is also built for speed, with a line that is a
little undersized (now that Warren Sapp is in shape) but extremely active. Throw in
superspeedy LB Derrick Brooks, who may be the best outside ’backer in football, and
you have a team that should be able to slow Faulk in the running game. The onus, then,
falls on CBs Donnie Abraham, Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly, who aren’t big names but
who have played pretty well. I especially like Abraham, who should have made the Pro Bowl.
And let’s not forget defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who has done an outstanding
job of game-planning this season. My hunch is that he’ll have something up his sleeve
for the Rams that will confuse them for a little bit, allowing the Bucs to stay in the
game.
My biggest quarrel with the Rams is that I’m not a huge fan of their defense.
Yeah, it’s fast. Yeah, it has scored a lot of touchdowns. But the price of being a
fast, aggressive defense is that the Rams are small, especially up the middle, where DT
D’Marco Farr and MLB London Fletcher lack bulk. Against a lot of NFL teams,
that’s not a huge problem, but the Bucs like to go big, using big ol’ Mike
Alstott as a tailback as well as some formations that feature multiple tight ends. I think
the Bucs can push St. Louis around in the running game. If that happens, then a lot of the
burden will fall off of rookie Shaun King. If King throws more than one interception in
this game, the Bucs will lose and probably lose big. But if King can avoid turnovers and
make two or three key throws, the Bucs have a fighting chance.
My other qualm about the Rams is that they haven’t won a close game all season.
Part of that is because they’ve done a very good job of going for the jugular when
they have a lead. But you have to wonder how they would respond if Tampa was within three
points going into the fourth quarter. The Rams showed me something when they blitzed the
Vikings in the third quarter after trailing at halftime, but it remains to be seen how
they would respond in a big, pressure situation.
It’s possible that the Rams will get a couple of turnovers early and turn this
game into a laugher or a coronation. But I like the Bucs’ gumption. I see Tampa Bay
keeping it close throughout the game and then finding a way to win in the end. In any
case, a two-touchdown spread seems too dadgum big to me.
Neely’s pick: Tampa Bay
Last week’s record: 0-4
Season record: 35-39-2 |
