Super Bowl XXXIII
Denver vs. Atlanta (+7)
It’s Super Bowl week, and the hype is
flowing. Falcon CB Ray Buchanan wore a dog collar to media day (after all, his team is the
underdog). The Dan Reeves-Mike Shanahan-John Elway saga has come and gone from the Miami
landscape.
Lost in all the fun, perhaps, are the nuts and bolts of what should be a very
competitive game. Each team enters the game with a 16-2 record.
The biggest danger for Atlanta — and for handicappers — is the first quarter.
The Falcons must not allow the Broncos to get an early 10- or 14-point lead. If they do, I
see a blowout in the offing.
But I don’t think the Falcons will fall behind like that. Looking back at the NFC
championship game, everyone talks about how Atlanta rebounded from a 20-7 deficit. I think
one of the more significant events of the whole game was Atlanta’s long drive for a
touchdown to start the game.
That first Falcon drive will be a key in the Super Bowl, as well. A three-and-out could
spell disaster. Chris Chandler, Jamal Anderson and the Falcon offense must be clicking
right out of the gate. Early jitters may be understandable in the Super Bowl, but they
could be deadly for the Falcons.
All that being said, I like the Falcons’ attitude. They don’t seem to be
intimidated by anything, and that will serve them well early in the game. I believe the
first quarter will end with a tied score or a small Falcon lead. That means Atlanta will
be in the game until the end.
The Bronco run defense did a very good job in the AFC playoffs, but I believe the
numbers are a bit deceiving. A big lead against Miami prevented the Dolphins from really
being able to establish the run, and the Jets gave up on Curtis Martin too quickly. So, I
think that Anderson will find some cracks in the Denver "D." He may not have a
200-yard game, but he should get at least 80 or 90 yards. That’s a key, because
Atlanta needs to keep the potent Denver offense off the field. Plus, an effective run game
will make the Falcon play-action passing game more dangerous.
Meanwhile, I think the Falcons can do an adequate job vs. Bronco RB Terrell Davis.
He’ll probably break the 100-yard barrier — he always seems to do so in the
playoffs — but I don’t see him having a dominant game. A huge game by Terrell
will lead to a big win by the Broncos.
What’s the bottom line? I think the Falcons keep this one close enough to cover
the spread, which is smaller than I would have expected. In fact, I’m picking Atlanta
to win straight up, 30-27.
Neely’s pick: Atlanta
Last week: 0-2
Season to date: 41-34-3
This handicapping column will appear at PFW Online every Friday. PFW editors Keith
Schleiden, Michael Lev, Jeff Agrest, Pat Fitzmaurice and Robert Neely will rotate the
writing duties. |
