And then there were four.
NFC championship game
Atlanta at Minnesota (-11)
If you've taken the Vikings and the points every week this season, like I have, you've
probably made some money for yourself. Minnesota enters the NFC championship game vs.
Atlanta having covered the spread 12 times in 17 games this season with one push. At home,
the Vikings have covered eight out of nine times, including spreads of 12 1/2 vs.
Washington, 10 1/2 vs. Cincinnati, 16 1/2 vs. Chicago and 13 1/2 vs. Jacksonville. In all,
the Vikings are 5-1 vs. the spread when favored by more than 10 points. They covered a 16
1/2 -point spread last week vs. Arizona in the divisional round.
But Minnesota doesn't just look good from a handicapping standpoint. The Vikings look
good from a football standpoint, as well. Basically, they have too many weapons on
offense, and no one has held them to fewer than 24 points all season. You could make the
argument that the only team to beat the Vikings — Tampa Bay — uses a style
similar to that of the Falcons, which could spell trouble for the home team. I say,
"Posh!" The Buccaneers had the luxury of using two running backs, Mike Alstott
and Warrick Dunn, to run all over the Viking defense. The Falcons have but one, though
he's a pretty darn good one, in Jamal Anderson.
I've also heard the argument that, if Atlanta can control the ball with Anderson and
keep the Viking offense off the field, its chances of winning dramatically increase. To
that I ask, "How long do you think it takes for Randall Cunningham to launch a bomb
to Randy Moss?" The Vikings don't need much time to put points on the board, and they
even showed last week that they can control the ball themselves (their opening drive vs.
Arizona lasted over seven minutes).
The bottom line is this: The Falcons don't have enough quality coverage people to stop
the Vikings. Ray Buchanan may very well do a fine job on Randy Moss, but what about Cris
Carter? I'll take Robert Smith or Andrew Glover on passing routes over Jessie Tuggle or
Henri Crockett any day. With Atlanta finishing the regular season ranked second vs. the
run, I look for the Vikings to come out throwing early and often. With the home crowd
behind them, I look for the Vikings to be up by double digits at halftime before holding
off the Falcons in the end.
Agrest's pick: Minnesota
AFC championship game
N.Y. Jets (+9) at Denver
This game should be a lot closer. The Broncos found themselves in some barn-burners
down the stretch, going winless in their final four games vs. the spread, two of which
were at home. Yes, I saw the drubbing they gave Miami last week. But c'mon. The Dolphins
looked like a fish out of water in Mile High Stadium. They couldn't run the ball for their
lives. The Jets can. Curtis Martin has been on a roll, thanks in part to an offensive line
that has stepped up its play. Martin looked great vs. Jacksonville last week, not only
running outside — a preference of the Jets — but right up the gut. While the
Bronco run defense has played much better this season (No. 3 in the league) than last, it
still relies somewhat on the run blitz. If Martin gets going, look for the Jets to keep
this thing close. Real close.
But let's not forget that Denver has a pretty good running back in its own right.
Terrell Davis averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored 21 touchdowns en route to a
2,008-yard season. He's recorded five straight 100-yard games in the postseason, and he
should be licking his chops vs. a Jet defense that ranked 14th in the league vs. the run
in the regular season. Since New York plays a 3-4 scheme, the onus will be on the three
defensive linemen to plug holes and occupy blockers in order to free their linebackers to
make plays. But I wouldn't be surprised if defensive guru Bill Belichick has some tricks
up his sleeve. He knows full well that, if Davis is allowed to roam free, the Jets will be
in a heap o' trouble.
Look. Both offenses and defenses have the ability to make big plays. They've proved
that. This game is going to come down to the intangibles. For example, playing in Mile
High gives the Broncos a huge advantage, but they finally took full advantage of it last
week vs. Miami. Don't forget, though, the Jets have won in some tough places. They rallied
on a Monday night to beat New England in Foxboro, and they knocked the Dolphins around on
a Sunday night in Miami, not to mention beating the Chiefs (before the team really cashed
it in) and Buffalo on the road. So New York is battle-tested.
The reason I'm taking the Jets to cover is simple: Bill Parcells, the biggest
intangible of them all. He's had his team playing at a playoff level for weeks, and his
presence alone makes this a close game. He has the Jets convinced they can beat Denver
anywhere on the planet, and that type of confidence is a scary thing. The Jets may not win
this game, but I can't see them losing by more than a touchdown.
Agrest's pick: N.Y. Jets
Last week: 3-1
Season to date: 41-32-3
This handicapping column will appear at PFW Online every Friday. PFW editors Keith
Schleiden, Michael Lev, Jeff Agrest, Pat Fitzmaurice and Robert Neely will rotate the
writing duties. |
