| I enjoy upsets as much as the next guy. Even though I have no rooting interest or
affiliation with the Cardinals, I was thrilled to see them knock off the Cowboys. (And I
assure you my elation had nothing to do with the fact that I was one of only two editors
to pick Arizona to defeat Dallas straight up in the Handicapper’s Corner.) However,
the divisional-playoff matchups give me no choice. I hate to do it, but I’m picking
all four favorites. Call it boring, call it the easy way out, but all signs point to the
well-rested home teams advancing to the conference-championship games.
San Francisco at Atlanta (-3 1/2)
Unlike last week, when the NFL saved its best for last, the most compelling matchup of
Round Two leads off the weekend’s playoff action. The 49ers have pretty much
controlled this series in recent years (they’ve won five of the last six meetings),
but the Falcons beat them the last time they met. That game took place at the Georgia
Dome, where the Falcons haven’t lost this season. They’ll be especially pumped
up Saturday for several reasons: the return of head coach Dan Reeves; the continuing (and
mind-boggling) lack of respect they have received, despite their 14-2 record; and the fact
that they are hosting a playoff game for the first time in 18 years. Besides the
intangibles, Atlanta has one other thing on its side: Pro Bowl RB Jamal Anderson, who is
capable of gashing the 49ers’ weakened run defense and chewing up valuable possession
time, thereby keeping San Francisco’s potent offense off the field.
Lev’s pick: Atlanta
Miami at Denver (-13 1/2)
This isn’t just a playoff game for the Broncos — it’s a revenge game.
Miami humiliated Denver a few Monday nights ago, for all the nation to see. Of course,
that game took place in Miami, where the Dolphins went 7-1 during the regular season. On
the road, they were 3-5. The Dolphins also had a healthy defensive line in Week 16, and
now they’re without two key starters: DE Jason Taylor (shoulder) and DT Tim Bowens
(biceps). Taylor was the best player on the field in the Monday-night upset, chasing and
harassing Bronco QB John Elway all evening. Denver hasn’t lost a home game in forever
(17 in a row, including playoffs) and isn’t about to let a banged-up, undermanned
Miami club end that streak. Dan Marino’s lifetime record vs. Elway is 2-0. After
Saturday, it’ll be 2-1.
Lev’s pick: Denver
Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (-8)
Jaguar QB Mark Brunell’s sprained ankle reportedly is feeling a lot better, but
he’ll face a lot better competition than he saw in the wild-card round. Jacksonville
beat New England to get here — the same Patriot team the Jets swept convincingly
during the regular season. The Jets haven’t lost a home game since September, and
their head coach, Bill Parcells, has an .800 winning percentage (4-1) in home playoff
games at Giants Stadium. Even though they weren’t sure whom they were going to face,
the Jets spent much of their bye week studying the Jaguars. (Every other potential
opponent was a familiar AFC East foe.) You can be sure game-planning wizard Bill
Belichick, the Jets’ defensive coordinator, will come up with a scheme to slow Jaguar
RB Fred Taylor, forcing Brunell to put his ankle to the test. He’ll likely be playing
from behind, as the Jaguar defense, the worst statistically of the eight surviving playoff
teams, will have a tough time against the Jets’ diverse, productive offense.
Lev’s pick: N.Y. Jets
Arizona at Minnesota (-16)
Both of the Cardinals’ first two playoff opponents won their respective divisions.
That’s where the comparisons end. Arizona beat a Dallas team devoid of speed on
offense. This week’s foe, Minnesota, has gobs of speed. Rifle-armed Randall
Cunningham has yet to overthrow the Gazelle-like Randy Moss, and, if you pay too much
attention to WR’s Moss, Cris Carter and Jake Reed (who’s back from his back
injury), RB Robert Smith will kill you. The Cardinals are a plucky, spunky club led by a
quarterback, Jake Plummer, who makes up for his physical limitations with heart and moxie.
But even the soon-to-be-great Plummer can’t stop this pipe from bursting. The Cards
are simply out of their league against a Viking team that hasn’t lost at home and
hasn’t scored fewer than 24 points in a game all season long.
Lev’s pick: Minnesota
Last week: 4-0
Season to date: 38-31-3
This handicapping column will appear at PFW Online every Friday. PFW editors Keith
Schleiden, Michael Lev, Jeff Agrest, Pat Fitzmaurice and Robert Neely will rotate the
writing duties. |
