| If history is any indication, the Buccaneers are
in for a long day Sunday at Lambeau Field. First, there’s the weather. Tampa Bay is
0-18 lifetime when the gametime temperature is below 40 degrees. The forecast calls for a
high of 14 degrees with snow.
Second, there’s the Brett Favre factor in that weather. The Packers’
quarterback is 26-0 lifetime at home when the game-time temperature is 34 degrees or
below.
Third, there’s the Wisconsin factor. In their last 11 trips into the state, the
Bucs are 0-11, including two defeats in Milwaukee. In those 11 games, the Bucs scored an
average of only 11.9 points.
"That’s going to be the talk," Buccaneers SS John Lynch said.
"Everyone brings out the statistics as far as we’ve never won a game under 40,
and from what I understand, if it’s 40, we’re going to be lucky. So we just have
to prepare ourselves and try to put that out of our mind."
It won’t be easy considering the only refuge from the elements is the locker room.
But the Bucs do have a lot at stake in this game. A win over the Packers combined with a
Vikings loss to the Colts would give Tampa Bay its second straight NFC Central title. And
that means at least one playoff home game.
The Packers have something to play for as well. If they win and the Lions and Rams
lose, Green Bay would qualify for the postseason.
If the Bucs do win the division, they’ve have done it in the oddest of ways. Ask
yourself: What is the Bucs’ offensive identity? You’d be hard-pressed to come up
with one. One week, they’re running Warrick Dunn up and down the field. Another week,
they’re throwing the ball up and down the field.
But there are two common threads in the Bucs’ offensive success of late. First,
what the defense is giving, the Bucs are taking. Second, Dunn has proved to be much more
than a third-down back, which everyone tabbed him to be when he entered the league in
1997. There’s no question he will loom large in Sunday’s game.
In the last four games, all Bucs wins, Dunn has averaged 172.8 rushing-receiving yards
and scored seven rushing touchdowns. The Bucs have done an excellent job getting him in
the ball in space, where he can best use his speed and agility. But Dunn isn’t afraid
to pound the ball either, and he’ll prove that Sunday.
The Packers’ defensive line has been decimated by injuries. DTs Santana Dotson and
Steve Warren (torn quads) are out and DE John Thierry has been playing hurt for most of
the year. He’ll need to have offseason surgery on both of his shoulders and one knee.
Dunn should be able to gain some yardage against the Packers’ soft underbelly.
But Green Bay has had an effective running game of its own, led by Ahman Green. In the
last seven games, Green has averaged 130.1 rushing-receiving yards and scored eight total
touchdowns. His comfort level with the Packers’ running game — which consists of
eight core plays — has reached new heights, and it shows.
The biggest difference between the Packers’ and Bucs’ offense is at
quarterback. Favre has been red hot of late, posting a TD-interception of 5-1 over the
last three games, all wins. He was at his best last week against Minnesota, showing great
touch and accuracy on his passes. He completed 26-of-38 for 290 yards and three
touchdowns.
King has been all over the place. After averaging 16.8 pass attempts between Weeks 12
and 15, King threw 38 passes Monday night against the Rams. He completed only 18 of them,
but when he did connect, he looked impressive. Fortunately, he’ll face a Packers
defense that doesn’t have a consistent pass rush. Since recording four sacks in Week
12, the Packers have four sacks in four games.
The same can’t be said for the Buccaneers’ defense, which could give Favre a
good deal of trouble. The Bucs are averaging more than three sacks per game, led by DT
Warren Sapp (15 1/2 sacks) and DE Marcus Jones (13). Jones and DE Chidi Ahanotu could give
the Packers’ rookie tackles, OLT Chad Clifton and ORT Mark Tauscher, some problems.
However, both have held up well in their first pro season.
Both defenses boast Pro Bowl defensive backs. For the Packers, FS Darren Sharper has
had his best season. He’s taken SS LeRoy Butler’s place close to the line of
scrimmage, where Sharper has improved his tackling and awareness. Butler, though, has
adapted well to his new role as centerfielder.
For the Bucs, Lynch and CB Donnie Abraham have had very good years. Lynch is very tough
in run support and has improved his play in pass coverage. While Abraham isn’t a
conventional cover corner, he’s a good tackler with good ball awareness. The Bucs
don’t ask their cornerbacks to play tight coverage, preferring them to prevent the
big play and support the run. |
