Monday, April 30, 2001

Predicting the 2001 Rookie of the Year race

By Ron Pollack, Editor-in-chief

It is obviously dangerous to try to make too much out of how the rookies look in minicamps.

As one NFL insider told me today, "Everyone loves their rookies this time of year. The reason they all look good is because these are just underwear drills."

By underwear drills, he meant that the rookies are performing in shorts in drills instead of in full uniform in real games when the bullets are flying.

Nonetheless, I just can’t help myself, so I’ve decided to project the Rookie of the Year race for the 2001 season. I am not basing this on how rookies are looking in minicamp, which should please the NFL insider. Instead, I am basing it on ability, draft day grades and immediate opportunity the rookies have with their new NFL teams. Keep in mind, this is not a prediction of what kind of careers these guys will have. It is simply a crystal ball look at their rookie campaigns. For example, QB Michael Vick (the first player taken in the first round) does not make the list because he could very well spend much or the season on the bench since quarterbacks usually don’t start most of their rookie seasons.

So without anymore delay, here are my top 10 Rookie of the Year candidates:

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers — He plays a position that lends itself to Rookie of the Year honors in that it gets a lot of attention and, more importantly, is much easier to get up to speed than most other positions. Tomlinson will get the ball a lot, which certainly helps his Rookie of the Year outlook. He is tremendously talented, which doesn’t hurt. He has a veteran quarterback in Doug Flutie who will keep offenses honest, which really helps. The only thing that is not ideal for Tomlinson’s Rookie of the Year hopes is the fact that his offensive line leaves something to be desired.
2. WR Koren Robinson, Seahawks — This is not to say that I think Robinson will be a better pro than David Terrell. I think that question is a flip of the coin right now. What makes Robinson a top-notch Rookie of the Year candidate is the fact that a Mike Holmgren offense, and the fact that there are not superstar receivers on the roster, gives Robinson tremendous opportunity. He has the immense talent to take advantage of that opportunity. We’ll have to see if he has the attitude to take advantage of that opportunity.
3. DE Andre Carter, 49ers — Even though fellow DE Justin Smith was drafted earlier than Carter, I like Carter’s Rookie of the Year chances better. The reason is that I think Carter will get a lot more help from his friends, which should make it easier for him to be productive. The 49ers have terrific DTs in Bryant Young and Dana Stubblefield. Young is a dominant performer and Stubblefield is a quality player. Offensive lines will have to pay a lot of attention to them, which is that much less attention that they can pay to Carter. I think the 49ers’ defensive line will be greatly improved this year. Compare that to a Bengals’ defensive line which was a huge weakness last season, and Smith will not get anywhere near as much help from his mates as Carter will.
4. WR Freddie Mitchell, Eagles — Mitchell may not have been the second wide receiver selected, and he may have been only the 25^th player taken in the draft, but I like his opportunity. He has a chance to be a No. 1 wideout on a team that has a fast rising star in QB Donovan McNabb. If McNabb steps it up another notch in his progress this season, Mitchell may benefit greatly. There are concerns about the size of Mitchell’s ego, but that is not all bad. I’ve always believed a wide receiver has to have a healthy sized ego to be great. The key is for it to be healthy sized, not obese. Keep in mind also that while Mitchell was the 25^th player taken in the draft, that was partially because there was so much talent at the WR position in this draft. In a different year with a typical WR class, Mitchell might have been the 16^th player selected.
5. LB Dan Morgan, Panthers — If Morgan can stay healthy as a rookie, he can be a tackling machine. He has a great work ethic and should be very productive. By going to a team lacking in overall productivity along its front seven, Morgan has the opportunity to be a real play maker and pile a lot more tackles as a rookie than he might have tallied had he gone to a club with more producers in the lineup.
6. OT Kenyatta Walker, Buccaneers — I know, I know. He doesn’t play a position that can be quantified by statistics. That’s why I don’t have him in the top five. I think he still rates in the top 10, though, because he is going to a big-time team that is heavily in the Super Bowl hunt. Since he fills such a huge area of need for Tampa Bay, if he does a good job he will get a lot of publicity. Given how highly rated he was, I think he will do a very solid job as a rookie. OT Leonard Davis was drafted earlier than Walker, but is anyone going to pay that much attention to how he is doing for the struggling Cardinals? Keep in mind that while Davis had the higher grade overall, there were some teams that liked Walker better.
7. RB Michael Bennett, Vikings — Once he wins the starting job outright, I will probably move him higher on this list. With all the firepower the Vikings’ wide receivers provide, defenses will not be able to pay anywhere near as much attention to Bennett as they would to other running backs. That should allow Bennett to pile up some very impressive statistics. I liked Bennett better as a running back in college than I did Ron Dayne. What keeps me from moving Bennett higher is the fear that someone like Doug Chapman will be part of the mix. I don’t think it will happen. I think Bennett will win the No. 1 job outright, but this early in the offseason I have to factor it into the equation.
8. WR David Terrell, Bears — I’d rate him much higher if he had more certainty at quarterback. Yes, I know I rated Koren Robinson way up the list and his quarterback is not exactly an established commodity, but the Seahawks have a QB guru in charge in Mike Holmgren. The Bears don’t have a QB guru. What they have are a lot of quarterbacks that are nothing but question marks. Jim Miller and Shane Matthews do not strike me as the type of quarterbacks who can make a passing game explode. Cade McNown probably has that upside, but his attitude and impatience may keep him from ever getting it done in a big way. If the light bulb goes on for McNown this year, move Terrell way up this list. Otherwise Terrell rates at this spot through no fault of his own.
9. WR Rod Gardner, Redskins — He plays a position that gets a lot of attention from the media. He has a great shot to start. That spells publicity. If Jeff George lives up to the hype, Gardner could have a fine season. George is always a wild card, though, so Gardner is a tough call to make. Keep in mind that George has had his greatest success throwing to big wide receivers, and Gardner qualifies as a big and powerful wideout.
10. DT Damione Lewis, Rams — The Rams have massively revamped their defense. If the overhaul is successful, the offense is so awesome that we could be talking about another Super Bowl. With so many new faces on defense, the chemistry could be horrible and the wheels could fall off. With this much uncertainty on a hot Super Bowl contender, there will be a ton of national attention on this defense. If it gets the job done, there will be plenty of publicity to go around, and Lewis was the first of a trio of first-rounders the Rams took for the defense. Lewis wasn’t the first defensive tackle taken in the draft, but his situation gives him a chance for a lot more publicity than Gerard Warren in Cleveland and Richard Seymour in New England. I don’t think Warren and Seymour will pile up the sack totals as rookies necessary to overcome the lack of media attention that goes with playing on struggling teams.

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