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"In our opinion" daily columns

Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2001

Mediocrity prevails

Will the NFL’s best team win the Super Bowl? Probably not

By Dan Arkush, Executive editor

Of all the opinions and assertions I’ve heard this season regarding the state of the National Football League, none has rung truer than the one-sentence summation by Matt Millen on the eve of the Raiders-Broncos Monday-night bash in Week 11.

"Hey, face it, the NFL just isn’t a real good league right now," said Millen, who had just arrived in Mile High Country for the national radio broadcast of the Raiders-Broncos game.

The comment came after I had asked Millen for his opinions on the "hot" teams at that point in time. I remember him being particularly critical of the Giants, basically saying they were an extremely average team that was benefiting from a soft schedule.

Since the early ’90s, Millen, a former NFL player who won four Super Bowls with three different teams, has been one of pro football’s most well-respected, knowledgeable commentators. Attesting to his considerable acumen is his latest gig, which became official yesterday — president and CEO of the Lions, a position that will reportedly pay him an eyeball-popping $15 million over the next five years.

Obviously, the Lions think Millen knows what he’s talking about, and they couldn’t be more right. His Week 11 assessment was right on the money.

Just look at this year’s final four. At the beginning of the season, the odds that any of these teams would make it as far as they have were bigger than Tony Siragusa’s waistline. By the season’s midpoint, only Minnesota looked like a totally legitimate playoff contender in this group. As it turned out, the Vikings had the least momentum among these teams heading into the 2000 postseason party, thanks to a three-game losing streak to close out the regular season that exposed a Swiss-cheese defense almost as awful as the Rams’.

In terms of the most momentum, the Ravens get the nod with nine straight wins heading into their AFC championship bout in Oakland this Sunday. But while their defense is certainly championship caliber, their offense couldn’t be more ordinary. I’ve already seen complaints raised in print about the possibility of Trent Dilfer being by far the worst quarterback to ever play in a Super Bowl, and there’s nothing the former Buccaneer has done in the playoffs so far to dispute that claim. On more than one occasion, Ravens defenders have said that the team only needs 21 points out of its offense each game to assure victory. The way the Baltimore offense looks at the moment, 21 points could be asking for a lot.

Which leaves us with the Giants — a team that, in spite of its six-game win streak, is an underdog at home this Sunday to a team that hasn’t played outdoors since Thanksgiving Day — and the Raiders — a team with a nice, well-balanced offense but a below-average defense, especially vs. the pass.

Does the fact all these teams have noticeable flaws make this year’s postseason tournament any less appealing?

No. The lack of a clear-cut favorite does add an element of mystery that should satisfy die-hard football fans right up to the last play of this year’s Super Bowl — just like last year.

At the same time, though, the feeling lingers that the best teams in the league might not be playing in the Super Bowl. The one team that wins it all will be the team that does the best job of minimizing its mistakes, not maximizing its strengths.

What Millen really meant when he said the league wasn’t very good is that there just isn’t any dominant team right now that could also capture the attention of the more casual pro football fans.

Is that a bad thing — the fact that it’s highly unlikely any of this year’s final four teams will be favored to win next year’s Super Bowl, regardless of whether they win this year’s Super Bowl?

I can’t decide.

One thing is certain: In the National Football League, dynasties appear to have become as extinct as typewriters.

Get used to it, folks — for better or worse.

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