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Looking for surprises?

Wild and crazy NFC West will always keep you guessing

By Dan Arkush, Executive editor
As published in print Dec. 26, 2000

 Wesley Walls
Panthers TE
Wesley Walls

Ladies and gentlemen. Allow me to introduce your 2001 NFC West champions.

Let’s raise a glass to … the Carolina Panthers.

No, I haven’t been overdosing on the holiday egg nog, although the frigid weather currently inflicting Pro Football Weekly’s home base has triggered the need for a lot more fire water than usual this holiday season to warm these increasingly creaky bones.

I’m really just following the NFC West form sheet.

One year from now, George Seifert will once again be God’s gift to the head-coaching profession.

WR Patrick Jeffers, TE Wesley Walls and PK John Kasay, among others, will have bounced back big-time from injuries that prematurely halted their 2000 campaigns, and Carolina’s offense will once again warrant state-of-the-art status.

Unfortunately, we can’t tell you where in the world the Panthers’ ground game is going to come from.

But we can predict this: The Panthers — who, rumor has it, are considering changing their mascot from a black cat because they were so ridiculously unlucky this season — will win the NFC West next season.

How do we know?

Simple. It’s their turn.

In the last five seasons, a different NFC West team has taken home the division title — the amazing Saints this season, the Rams in ’99, the Falcons in ’98, the 49ers in ’97 and the Panthers in ’96.

If ever there was a testament to NFL parity, it’s the ever-changing complexion of the wild-and-crazy NFC West.

Forget about playing the favorites. Dark horses are a much better bet — the darker the better.

Need proof? Let’s do a little time-traveling.

What follows is a year-by-year breakdown of the predicted NFC West orders of finish that appeared in PFW’s annual preview magazines, beginning with the ’96 season, along with the actual standings from those seasons:

1996 — PFW prediction: 1. San Francisco (13-3), 2. St. Louis (9-7), 3. Atlanta (8-8), 4. Carolina (6-10), 5 New Orleans (6-10). Actual finish: 1. Carolina (12-4), 2. San Francisco (12-4), 3. St. Louis (6-10), 4. Atlanta (3-13), 5. New Orleans (3-13).

1997 — PFW prediction: 1. San Francisco (11-5), 2. Carolina (10-6), 3. St. Louis (7-9), 4. New Orleans (4-12), 5. Atlanta (3-13). Actual finish: 1. San Francisco (13-3), 2. Carolina (7-9), 3. Atlanta (7-9), 4. New Orleans (6-10), 5. St. Louis (5-11).

1998 — PFW prediction: 1. San Francisco (11-5), 2. St. Louis (7-9), 3. Carolina (7-9), 4. Atlanta (6-10), 5. New Orleans (5-11). Actual finish: 1. Atlanta (14-2), 2. San Francisco (12-4), 3. New Orleans (6-10), Carolina (4-12), 5. St. Louis (4-12).

1999 — PFW prediction: 1. San Francisco (10-6), 2. Atlanta (9-7), 3. New Orleans (6-10), 4. St. Louis (6-10), 5. Carolina (5-11). Actual finish: 1. St. Louis (13-3), 2. Carolina (8-8), Atlanta (5-11), San Francisco (4-12), 5. New Orleans (3-13).

2000 — PFW prediction: 1. St. Louis (10-6), 2. New Orleans (7-9), 3. Carolina (7-9), 4. San Francisco (7-9), 5. Atlanta (6-10). Actual finish: 1. New Orleans (10-6), 2. St. Louis (10-6), 3. Carolina (7-9), 4, San Francisco (6-10), 5. Atlanta (4-12).

Hey, we did OK in ’97, at least.

Since then, though, our crystal ball has been full of cracks. But we certainly haven’t been alone.

Nobody in his or her right mind would have dared to predict back in ’98 that the Falcons, of all teams, would end up representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

One year later, anybody predicting Dick Vermeil’s Rams would run away from the pack and become the league’s premier attraction would have been proclaimed a complete fool.

And this year we have the Saints making a turnaround for the ages. Things were so bad down by the bayou last season at this time, the locals were scurrying to replenish the paper-bag supply for the next decade.

But Saints owner Tom Benson was wise enough to entrust his team’s future in GM Randy Mueller and head coach Jim Haslett, two strong-willed young bucks who made it clear right away that they would put in more hours and make more moves than any of their counterparts in an attempt to resuscitate the league’s most lifeless franchise.

There’s a lesson to be learned here. In the NFL, circa 2000, the difference between the best teams and the worst teams has become increasingly slight.

As a result, a team’s success these days hinges on pure dumb luck as much as anything else.

But luck is the residue of design, especially in the NFL. Those seemingly insignificant personnel moves that show up in the agate type of your daily sports section can never be underestimated.

There’s no way Rams GM Charley Armey had any idea QB Kurt Warner would become one of the league’s brightest stars when he was signed as an undrafted free agent a few seasons ago. But Armey saw a glimmer of potential.

Nary an eyebrow was raised early this season when Mueller quietly traded a third-round pick in 2001 to Green Bay for QB Aaron Brooks.

Now, with the postseason fast-approaching, all eyes will be on the smooth-as-silk second-year signalcaller as he attempts to lead the Saints to the first playoff victory in their 34-year history.

One final thought.

Thank you, Bears PK Paul Edinger, for enabling the Rams to squeak into the playoffs with your amazing, game-winning 54-yard field goal vs. Detroit. A postseason without the league’s most potent offense would have been a real bummer.

Now that they’re in, could the Rams go all the way?

Your guess is as good as mine.

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The Archives
2000 - 2001 Season

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"A closer look" — in-depth analysis of general football topics
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Joel Buchsbaum — college player evaluations, NFL player analysis, NFL draft coverage, NFL notepad, NFList, college game previews and other NFL articles by PFW's contributing editor
NFL Draft — player evaluations, printouts, feature stories, commentaries, draft recaps
Ron Pollack — articles and commentary by PFW's editor-in-chief
Season in review  — the 2000-2001 NFL season
XFL — the inaugural year

 

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