| A team from the AFC East other than the
Indianapolis Colts will surprise the football world this season. We can say this with
virtual certainty because this sort of thing happens regularly in the NFL today. The
moment expectations are lowered, an underdog team rises up from the ashes. No one saw
the Colts coming last year. Or the Rams. Or the Titans. Or the Falcons in 1998.
Because they all took offseason hits of one sort or another, no one expects great
things this season from the Dolphins, Jets, Bills or Patriots. They represent the remains
of what was widely considered the league’s strongest and deepest division. As
recently as a year ago, some so-called experts (including yours truly) believed the
Dolphins and Jets were two of the four best teams in the NFL. Those same folks said that
whoever finished last among the Bills, Patriots and Colts would be just about the best
last-place team anyone had ever seen.
It turned out that the Colts were one of the best teams in the league — period
— and that the Bills weren’t far behind. The Dolphins made the playoffs, and the
worst teams in the division — the Jets and Patriots — finished .500.
Now, the AFC East is considered a one-horse race, with the young, improving Colts
— who kept the players they wanted to keep — way ahead of the field. But
favorites don’t always prevail or win in a runaway. Someone in the AFC East will do
to the Colts what the Titans did to the Jaguars in the AFC Central last season — push
them to the limit all year long.
Below, we’ll handicap the field in the AFC East, sans Indy, pointing out each
team’s reasons for optimism and causes for concern.
Buffalo Bills
Reasons for optimism: The Bills have the makings of one of the better
offenses in the league. If QB Rob Johnson can play as well as he did at the end of last
season, Buffalo should be able to stretch defenses with a vertical passing game. That will
only make their power-running game — aided by the re-signings of OLs Ruben Brown and
John Fina — more effective.
Causes for concern: The Bills have lost a lot this offseason on
defense and in the locker room. Bruce Smith and Thomas Smith will be very, very difficult
to replace. Young DE Marcellus Wiley has some Bruce Smith-like qualities, but Wiley
isn’t Bruce Smith. Antoine Winfield is a capable replacement for Thomas Smith, but
wasn’t Winfield supposed to supplant Ken Irvin, who has to start now? In their effort
to rebuild on the fly, the Bills have become a much younger team. The leadership provided
by Thurman Thomas and Sam Gash will be missed.
Odds on breaking through: 7-1.
Miami Dolphins
Reasons for optimism: One of the league’s best defenses last
season (with the exception of the playoff loss to the Jaguars) returns everybody
who’s anybody, including studs such as MLB Zach Thomas and CB Sam Madison. The
offense will be in better hands under new coordinator Chan Gailey, a brilliant offensive
mind who was unfairly made a scapegoat in Dallas. And the Jimmy Johnson-Dan Marino soap
opera is finally over, ridding the Dolphins’ organization of a huge distraction.
Causes for concern: Say what you want about Johnson and Marino now,
but the truth is, Dolphins fans always felt they had a fighting chance with Jimmy roaming
the sideline and Danny under center. Johnson’s successor, Dave Wannstedt, has more
doubters than supporters at this point in his coaching career. He claims to have learned
lessons from his less-than-stellar stint in Chicago, but seeing is believing where this
reporter is concerned. The post-Marino offense may not be vanilla from a play-calling
standpoint, but where’s the star power on this side of the ball? The Damon Huard-Tony
Martin combo isn’t likely to remind anyone of Marino-to-Clayton or Marino-to-Duper.
Odds on breaking through: 5-1.
New England Patriots
Reasons for optimism: The Patriots’ most important offseason move
wasn’t replacing Pete Carroll so much as replacing Bobby Grier, the primary architect
of a series of bad drafts. Considering that the Patriots didn’t have a first-round
pick, the new regime’s first draft wasn’t half-bad. New England landed a
potential starting running back (J.R. Redmond) and possible future OL bookends (Adrian
Klemm and Greg Robinson-Randall). The defense is potentially outstanding, with Bill
Belichick coaching the likes of Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law and Willie McGinest.
Causes for concern: As was the case for Belichick with the Jets, the
Patriots don’t have a ton of stud pass rushers. On offense, there are Drew Bledsoe
and a cast of question marks. Can the offensive line, with at least one rookie slated to
start at tackle, keep the franchise quarterback in one piece? Will a running back emerge
who can take pressure off Bledsoe? Will Terry Glenn put a full season together for the
first time since 1996?
Odds on breaking through: 10-1.
New York Jets
Reasons for optimism: QB Vinny Testaverde returns after missing almost
all of last season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Not only does Testaverde’s return
improve the Jets’ starting situation, but they arguably have the best QB depth in
football with Vinny, Ray Lucas and Chad Pennington. The offensive line is young and
potentially very good, led by All-Pro C Kevin Mawae. As long as the line does its job and
Curtis Martin stays healthy, the Jets should be able to run the ball effectively. On
defense, the Jets have enhanced their pass rush with rookies Shaun Ellis and John Abraham.
Causes for concern: Bill Parcells, who turned around the Jets’
franchise, is no longer patrolling the sideline. Parcells has stuck around to run the
football operations, but the fact remains that no one who has succeeded Parcells has been
able to live up to the high standards he set. Al Groh’s cause was hurt badly by the
team’s idiotic decision to draw a line in the sand and part ways with superstar WR
Keyshawn Johnson. The best-laid plans of the ground attack could go awry if opposing
defenses constantly stack eight men in the box.
Odds on breaking through: 9-2. |
