| Spring means two things at Pro Football
Weekly: (1) Our incredibly inept softball team once again tries to top our
single-season record of three victories; and (2) we must make early-bird predictions on
the upcoming NFL season for our two annual magazines, Preview 2000 and Fantasy
Football Guide 2000. The toughest picks to make, by far, were for Super Bowl XXXV,
and the AFC choice, surprisingly, was even harder than the NFC selection. I thought I’d
stress out over the NFC — Redskins or Buccaneers? — but I quickly sided with
Washington. It’s considered just about a foregone conclusion that the Redskins will
sign Deion Sanders in June, and that move should put them over the top.
In the AFC, I was torn between the Jaguars and Colts. After several days of internal
debate, I settled on Jacksonville, and I’m still not sure I made the right call.
The Colts appear to be a powerhouse in the making, or at least an annual contender. The
mere presence of Peyton Manning makes Indianapolis a threat for years to come. However,
success in the NFL one year often brings hardship the next. The powers-that-be set up the
schedule so that the best teams face the most difficult opponents, and the Colts, who went
13-3 on a last-place schedule last season, now must deal with a first-place slate that’s
tougher than a gristly piece of steak.
(Somehow, the Super Bowl-champion Rams have eluded the scary schedule monster. Yes, St.
Louis plays a first-place schedule. But based on last year’s regular-season records,
the Rams still have the second-easiest schedule in 2000. That doesn’t say much for
their division, the NFC West, or for the NFC as a whole. The conference clearly lacks the
depth of its AFC counterpart.)
Based on their 1999 records, Indy’s opponents bring a .563 winning percentage into
2000, the third-highest mark in the league. Even if the Colts play better than they did a
year ago (a distinct possibility, considering their youth at quarterback, running back and
linebacker), they’ll have a hard time matching last season’s 13-3 record. They’re
the clear-cut favorites to win the AFC East, but as watered down as that division appears
to be, there isn’t a "bad" team in the bunch. No easy victories will come
from matchups vs. the Dolphins, Jets, Bills or Patriots. Throw in road trips to Kansas
City, Seattle, Chicago and Green Bay, and Indy is looking at a record of 10-6, 11-5 at
best.
The Jaguars will beat that mark, and that will give them home-field advantage
throughout the playoffs. Yes, I know, they had home field last season and didn’t do
anything with it. But the Jaguars have added a few key pieces to the puzzle that just
might put them over the top this year.
Minimally, those additions will enable Jacksonville to again roll through the regular
season.
The Jags were an NFL-best 14-2 in ’99, and their 2000 opponents have a combined
winning percentage of just .465. You can pencil in six sure-thing victories for
Jacksonville right off the bat, as the Jags get to play the Browns, Bengals and Steelers
twice apiece. If they split their remaining 10 games, the Jaguars are 11-5. Anything
better than .500 in those 10 games, and Jacksonville betters the at-best projection for
Indianapolis.
Now, as for those Jaguars additions. New MLB Hardy Nickerson brings more veteran
leadership to a defense that improved by leaps and bounds last season after acquiring
heady S Carnell Lake and changing defensive coordinators. Perhaps with a playoff-toughened
vet like Nickerson around, the Jaguars wouldn’t have collapsed in the second half of
this past January’s AFC championship game.
In the draft, the Jaguars added much-needed speed to their WR corps with R. Jay Soward,
who isn’t the most consistent player but at least will force defenses to account for
him. Jacksonville also drafted Brad Meester, a heretofore-unheralded center-guard who
should improve the interior of the Jaguars’ offensive line. The inside has long been
considered the line’s soft spot.
(It should be noted that Meester attended Northern Iowa, the same school that produced
1999 Wonder Boy Kurt Warner. That may be nothing more than a meaningless coincidence, but
as I said, it was a tough call between the Jaguars and Colts, and I was scrounging for any
tidbit I could find.)
The Colts have done a fine job of keeping their own happy (Marvin Harrison, Ken Dilger,
etc.), and they were fortunate when MLB Rob Morris was still available with the 28th
pick in the draft. Morris gives the Colts exactly what they needed — run-stuffing
ability in the middle of the defense — and he’s undoubtedly superior to the
34-year-old Nickerson from a physical standpoint. But Nickerson provides savvy and
know-how that Morris couldn’t possibly possess. Even a rookie as polished as Manning
struggled during his rookie year.
I’m still not convinced the Colts have the cornerbacks or offensive line to win a
championship. Both are good, not great. The Jaguars have the best offensive tackle on the
planet in Tony Boselli (provided he’s healthy), and in last year’s draft they
landed Fernando Bryant, the best cover corner they’ve ever had. Boselli was absent
from last season’s playoffs. Had he been around, the Jaguars might not have given up
the safety that turned the tide in their title-game loss to the Titans.
In the end, the most important Jaguar will be QB Mark Brunell, who must prove he can
elevate his performance in big games. Brunell has been a high-quality player for a long
time, but he’ll always have a smudge on his record if he doesn’t win the big
one. For the Jaguars to win it all, Brunell must mimic Troy Aikman, who was basically a
running-game complement during the regular-season portion of the Cowboys’ title runs
before stepping up in the playoffs. Aikman posted a passer rating of at least 104.0 in
each of the Cowboys’ three championship postseasons.
My theory is that Brunell has tasted enough bitter defeat to finally spit it back into
the face of the defense and get the job done under duress. Manning, the youthful leader of
the Colts, is still a year or two away. |
