Monday, April 24, 2000

Crystal-ball gazing

Predicting how the division races will play out

By Ron Pollack, Editor-in-chief

I pulled this look into the future out of the box and decided to take a look at the 2000 division races. Rather than take a gander at how each team will do, I decided to look at the quality of the division races.

Thus, I am breaking this story into three categories: runaways, comfortable margins and close shaves.

Runaways

AFC East: This division is the Indianapolis Colts and everybody else. The question isn’t whether the Colts will win the division (they will) but whether they will lap the field. The Colts are coming off a 13-3 1999 regular-season mark, and they were absolutely for real. Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James should only get better with experience, and rookie MLB Rob Morris is a very nice upgrade on defense. The Bills went 11-5 last year but have lost DE Bruce Smith and CB Thomas Smith (among others) on defense. Miami will miss head coach Jimmy Johnson. The Jets will really miss WR Keyshawn Johnson. The Patriots will continue to be missing a go-to running back. The only thing that might hurt the Colts in this race is boredom.

NFC East: The Redskins won the division last season and have significantly upgraded their roster ever since. DE Bruce Smith, S Mark Carrier and rookie LB LaVar Arrington dramatically upgrade the defense, and OT Chris Samuels plugs a major hole on offense. Plus, Jeff George is sensational insurance against a possible injury to Brad Johnson. The Cowboys made the splashy addition of WR Joey Galloway, but they still seem to lack a go-to wide receiver to go over the middle, and the defense will really be hurt by the anticipated loss of CB Deion Sanders. I don’t see anyone among the remaining trio of the Giants, Cardinals and Eagles that is ready to step up enough in class right now to challenge Washington. All three could improve, but not enough to be division champs.

Comfortable margins

NFC West: The fact that I do not list this as a runaway is no knock on the Rams. I am a believer that last season was no fluke. They are the real deal and will have another huge season. With the exception of OL depth, I don’t see any possible areas of concern on this team. The reason I don’t see the Rams as a runaway winner is my gut feeling that the Panthers will be a nice surprise story this season. Under George Seifert, who I feel is extremely underrated as a head coach, the Panthers made sensational progress last year. I think that improvement will continue, thanks to an offense that was very strong last year and a defense that has enjoyed an influx of talent in the offseason. Jamal Anderson returns to the lineup for Atlanta, but I don’t think the Falcons will contend. The Saints added a lot of talent via free agency but aren’t ready to challenge the Rams. The 49ers did as well as they could have in the draft, but they still have a lot of holes to fill. The Rams will win the division, but the upstart Panthers could be a wild-card club that keeps things semi-competitive.

NFC Central: Keyshawn Johnson was the missing piece for the Buccaneers. Add him to a dominating defense, and you just might have a Super Bowl squad. At the moment, I see the Buccaneers neck and neck with the Rams for the NFC title, with the Redskins hot on both of their heels. Nonetheless, the Buccaneers could receive some competition in the NFC Central. Packers QB Brett Favre is too good to play down to last year’s level. If he improves, the Packers improve. The Bears are dramatically improved on defense from a year ago and still have an intriguing offense that could take dramatic steps forward if QB Cade McNown and RB Curtis Enis deliver on their potential. Detroit is a solid if unspectacular club. Minnesota looks as though it could slip. But if Dennis Green is right about the fact that his QB-friendly system can allow Daunte Culpepper to step in and be just fine immediately (I have my doubts) and the offensive line does not miss the players it lost in the offseason (I have my doubts), then the Vikings have enough superstars to be a playoff team (I have my doubts). This could be a very strong division in which the Buccaneers get no gimmes, especially in divisional road games.

Close shaves

AFC Central: Jacksonville-Tennessee. Enough said. Actually, I can’t help myself here. I’ll also throw in the fact that the Ravens will be much improved, although I don’t think they’ll be ready to challenge the two powerhouses in this division.

AFC West: One game separated Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland and San Diego last season. And cellar-dwelling Denver gets superstar RB Terrell Davis back. The so-called experts will be all over the board predicting this division.

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