| You would think I’d have
something better to do in the offseason than serve as the Fantasy Doctor’s secretary.
Sadly, I don’t. He’s a big shot around here, and I am merely his humble
servant. Among my duties is retrieving the various e-mails sent to Pro Football Weekly’s
fantasy football guru. The man may know football, but he’s technologically inept. I
think he still uses a typewriter.
Anyway, we posted an early-bird fantasy draft board on March 2 and asked our on-line
readers to give us their thoughts. They have, and I have asked the Doctor to respond in
kind. Here’s a sampling of what you and he had to say.
Joey Duncan: I just can’t see Jon Kitna ranked as low as you have him (No. 17).
Ranking him behind guys like Jake Plummer (16) and Donovan McNabb (15), both of whom I
like, seems like a real stretch, as these guys have done nothing to prove their worth as
yet.
Fantasy Doctor: The football field and the medical field have something in common
— sometimes you have to take chances to ensure survival. I’m willing to take a
chance on McNabb, who showed tons of potential as a rookie, especially as a runner. He
could develop into a Steve McNair-type fantasy weapon, but with better passing skills. If
the Eagles do a good job of acquiring receiving talent in the draft, I’ll have no
reservations about taking McNabb with a mid-round pick. As for Plummer, wasn’t it
just a year ago that he was in almost everyone’s top 10? Remember: He was hurt for
most of last season. The guy may have had a bad year, but it isn’t as if he’s
lost it and can never get it back. He has a deep, productive WR corps at his disposal, and
the Cardinals’ offensive line should be improved with OLT L.J. Shelton aboard from
Day One. Kitna was very productive last season, but his receiving corps is suspect (no
speed), and he doesn’t have the job security Plummer and McNabb have. Don’t be
surprised if youngster Brock Huard challenges Kitna at some point this season.
Keith: Thank you! My fantasy football withdrawal started earlier than usual this
year, and this list was my Advil. If I had any constructive criticism, it would be aimed
at the RB list. I feel, after the two seasons Marshall Faulk has put together, that a No.
2 ranking is as low as he should be, especially in a league that counts receptions. (Faulk
was ranked sixth on PFW’s early-bird list.) I also feel Terrell Davis (No. 4) is
rated a little too high. It takes about a full year to recover from his injury.
Fantasy Doctor: I agree on both counts. Upon further review, Faulk does deserve to be
higher. The only real risk is injury, but the same goes for every player. Back-to-back
seasons with double-digit touchdowns and more than 2,000 total yards speak volumes about
Faulk’s ability and versatility. When our next rankings come out (shortly after the
April draft), I assure you Faulk will be in the top five, possibly higher. If Faulk goes
up, someone else must come down, and Davis is a likely candidate. My sources tell me his
rehab is going very, very well, but you’re right: It does take about a year to fully
recover from that type of injury (see Chicago’s Curtis Enis). Davis definitely
deserves to be a fantasy starter, but it’s doubtful he’ll be his old self right
off the bat.
Andy: I disagree on the ranking of Jimmy Smith of the Jaguars. You put him 13th
on your WR list, which is uncalled-for. He is top-five material, and he is much better
than Patrick Jeffers (No. 12).
Fantasy Doctor: While Smith is a yardage machine, he doesn’t score enough
touchdowns to merit a top-five ranking in PFW’s scoring system (six points for TDs,
three points for 100-yard games). Despite leading the league in receptions last season,
Smith scored only six TDs. His career high is just eight. Part of the reason is that
Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin likes to run the ball in the red zone; another part is that
Mark Brunell can never seem to stay healthy for 16 games. While I’m reluctant to move
Smith up, you might be right about Jeffers being too high. His late-season surge certainly
has a fluky feel to it. Don’t be surprised if Smith and Jeffers are flip-flopped on
the next draft board.
Larry: Curtis Martin should be glad he’s not negotiating with you for a new
contract. No. 12? With a healthy Vinny Testaverde, Martin’s value should go up and
up. He had the yardage last season; he just needs an offense with better red-zone
effectiveness. … My only other complaint would be how high you put Terrell Owens (No.
16). That’s fine if Steve Young comes back and is healthy. (Are there two bigger
"ifs" in all of football?) But with Jeff Garcia at the helm, I’d stay clear
of all those 49ers receivers.
Fantasy Doctor: It is a good thing for Curtis that I’m not negotiating his
next contract. Football and medicine are my areas of expertise; I let my
"people" handle the financial stuff (such as my endorsement deals; look for me
on the new Tums commercial). As for Martin’s ranking, I agree — we were too
harsh on him. While he scored only five touchdowns last season, Martin is just a year
removed from a nine-TD campaign (in which he also recorded eight 100-yard rushing games).
Look for Curtis to move up a few notches in our next rankings. The Owens issue is a little
stickier. He was ranked as high as he was on the assumption Young would return,
though not necessarily for 16 games. If Young announces his retirement tomorrow, Owens
will tumble a few places on the draft board. But before you write him off completely, bear
in mind that he is still the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver, and he caught 60 passes last
season despite San Francisco’s QB woes.
Jim Kloss: Steve McNair is too high. He’s not No. 5, unless it’s a league
that way overvalues rushing. He just isn’t a good passer, and he’s past the time
when we can expect dramatic improvement. You’re also missing tabbing a young QB as a
surprise. There’s usually a younger guy who can be fourth-round or lower pick who
makes great strides. I’d bet on Tim Couch to make strides similar to Peyton Manning.
Fantasy Doctor: I guess PFW’s league way overvalues rushing. With rushing TDs
counting for six points and passing TDs only three, that must be the case. According to
that scoring system, McNair should be a top-five QB. If you translate his rushing
TDs (eight) from last year into passing TDs and add them to his actual passing touchdowns,
the guy "threw" 28 in 11 games. I defy you to find five QBs who were better.
Now, obviously, if you have a different scoring system — say, one in which rushing
TDs and passing TDs are worth six points apiece — you’d want to bump
McNair down a few notches. I agree with you that a young QB such as Couch could break out
this season, but I’m not ready to tab any of them as the second coming of Manning.
Let’s look at Couch specifically. He threw 15 TD passes as a rookie. If he improves
— which is no guarantee — it’s reasonable to assume he can throw 20 TD
passes as a sophomore — which would still be six fewer than Manning threw as a
rookie. Bear in mind, too, that Couch doesn’t have the supporting cast Manning
inherited. Manning came to a team with first-round picks at offensive tackle (Tarik
Glenn), wide receiver (Marvin Harrison) and running back (Marshall Faulk, who was
subsequently replaced by first-round pick Edgerrin James). If Couch had the same personnel
around him, I might buy your argument. But for now, he should be viewed as a fantasy
backup, not a starter.
JLChamp: I have a hard time believing that Stephen Davis (No. 2) is a better running
back than Fred Taylor (No. 3). I also don’t think Edgerrin James is going to be the
best running back. He played a last-place schedule, and this year it will be much harder
for him to put up the numbers he did last year.
Fantasy Doctor: I agree with you about Davis and Taylor. Davis is not a better
running back than Taylor. But if he re-signs with the Redskins in due time, Davis is a
less risky fantasy pick than Taylor, who can’t stay healthy. If you could guarantee
that Taylor would play 16 games, I’d rank him No. 1 in a heartbeat, not just at
running back but overall. Alas, nothing in life is guaranteed (as I know all too well; I
just lost that Tums endorsement). The schedule theory is certainly worth discussing when
it comes to James, but I’m not sure it’s applicable in his case. It wasn’t
as if James beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor as a rookie. In Week One vs.
Buffalo, he rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown. In Week Six vs. the Jets, he rushed for
111 yards. In Week 13 vs. the Dolphins, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Yeah, the
Colts’ schedule will be tougher this year than last, but James just might be a better
player. It’s scary to think that he was just feeling his way as a rookie.
Dren: Randy Moss (No. 2) is the best wide receiver, hands down, and should be ranked
No. 1 every year. Marvin Harrison (No. 1) is great, but Moss will go down as the greatest
receiver the game has seen, including Jerry Rice. Compare his first two years against
anybody’s.
Fantasy Doctor: Are you the president of the Randy Moss fan club, Dren? I’m an
admirer of his work too, but you have to look at the situation realistically. It’s
possible that Moss will enter the 2000 season with Daunte Culpepper, Bubby Brister or Todd
Bouman as his starting quarterback. If that’s the case, I cannot in good faith rank
Moss No. 1. Now, if the Vikings and Jeff George can hammer out an agreement, ensuring that
George is Minnesota’s starting quarterback, Moss will vault to the top of the list,
with Cris Carter right behind him. But until that happens, Harrison has to be the guy.
There are no QB concerns in Indianapolis.
Editor’s note: As always, the Fantasy Doctor regrets not being able to respond to
all of your e-mails. Keep ’em coming, though; we appreciate any feedback we get. |
