| The Buccaneers had to escape a
52-yard field-goal formation (it never actually got to the attempt stage) to win their NFC
divisional playoff game over Washington 14-13. The Rams exploded in the second half to run
away from the Vikings. The NFC title game matchup seems so one-sided that the Rams start
the week as two-touchdown favorites. Tampa Bay’s swashbucklers visit the
landlubbers from St. Louis. Actually, the Rams are anything but a grounded team. Kurt
Warner tossed five TD passes in St. Louis’ 49-37 romp over Minnesota last week.
It’s fitting that the Rams play in a dome named after an airline, because they take
to the air as often as they can.
Do the Bucs actually have a chance? While we ponder that question, let’s break
down the AFC championship game.
The Jaguars played at the peak of their capacities in the first 20 minutes or so of
their game against Miami, streaking out to a 38-0 lead in what became a 62-7 laugher. The
Dolphins’ defense was torched so badly that the sprinklers in the endzone went off.
(I apologize for that gratuitous bit of overdone writing, but every sportswriter worth his
salt has to do something with that bizarre occurrence.)
But there is no team in the NFL the Jaguars would like to see less than the Titans,
next week’s opponents. Tennessee swept Jacksonville this season, winning the second
game 41-14. It’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, but Tennessee
hasn’t played at full capacity yet. Steve McNair will have confidence vs. the Jaguars
— he threw five TDs against them last time out — and if he has a big game, the
Titans are unbeatable. Tennessee has already beaten two very good teams in the postseason.
My guess is they go for three and make their first Super Bowl trip. I picked the score two
weeks ago, and I’m sticking with it. Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 21.
It’s hard to imagine anyone beating the Rams if their offense plays like it did
Sunday. But Tampa Bay’s defense is worlds better than Minnesota’s. Will Kurt
Warner be able to pick apart the Bucs’ zone defense? Can Tampa’s front four put
pressure on Warner?
For the answers, let’s look at how Tampa did against Washington on Saturday. While
the Redskins don’t have the speed the Rams have, they do have a prolific passing
offense and a solid running threat. They got 13 points, seven of which came on a kickoff
return and three of which were the direct result of a turnover. And Tampa Bay’s
defense is wired for speed too, so the matchup with the Rams isn’t completely
unfavorable.
The question is whether Tampa Bay’s offense can put up enough points to keep up
with the Rams. The oddsmakers obviously don’t think so. That’s why the big
spread is there. But I haven’t been overly fond of the Rams’ defense all season.
While it is speedy, it is a little small. The Bucs are built for power. If they can get
the running game — and especially burly Mike Alstott — going, they can keep
Warner on the sideline.
Really, it’s going to come down to Buccaneers QB Shaun King. He’s only a
rookie, but he is poised. He made the one big throw he had to make against Washington,
hitting John Davis for a one-yard TD with pressure in his face. King cannot turn the ball
over if the Bucs are to beat the Rams, and he’ll probably have to make a few big
plays down the field.
The Bucs are good enough as a team that they’ll keep it within the 14-point
spread. I’m sure of that. Remember, I’m the one who picked Tampa Bay to go to
the Super Bowl before the playoffs began, rookie quarterback and all.
Before you dismiss the Buccaneers, remember: Atlanta 30, Minnesota 27 in last
year’s NFC championship game. Can lightning strike twice with a ball-control team
knocking off a high-scoring offensive juggernaut?
Rams fans (a.k.a. bandwagon-jumpers) will hate me, but …
Tampa Bay 26, St. Louis 24. |
