Thursday, Nov. 25, 1999

By the Numbers

A look at running backs

By Ron Pollack, Editor-in-chief

This week I am taking a look at statistics for running backs (all stats are through Week 11):

• Here’s a statistic that should serve as a testimonial to the Cowboys’ offensive line: Emmitt Smith and Chris Warren rank fourth and sixth, respectively, in the NFL in first downs per carry.

• Ricky Watters ranks among the AFC leaders in rushing yards, but he is not moving the chains especially well. He ranks ninth from the bottom in the NFL in first downs per carry.

• Maybe it’s a youth thing: The two running backs who have been stuffed (tackled behind the line of scrimmage on a rushing attempt) the most this season are Saints rookie Ricky Williams (33) and Bears second-year pro Curtis Enis (32).

• Given the fact that he is the pounder in the Bucs’ backfield as well as the fact that Warrick Dunn also gets so many carries, I was very surprised to see that Mike Alstott ranks as high as a tie for fifth in the NFL in running plays of more than 10 yards, with 21 of them.

• Do they put melted butter on the football in Tampa Bay and Philadelphia? Six players in the NFL are tied for the league lead in fumbles lost with five. Two of those players are Tampa Bay RB Mike Alstott and QB Trent Dilfer. Especially bad in Alstott’s case is the fact that three of those fumbles have come inside the red zone. Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, QB Doug Pederson has lost five fumbles this season, while QB Donovan McNabb and RB Duce Staley have lost four fumbles apiece.

• I think that how a running back does on 1^st-and-10 is especially important, since that sets the tone for the play calls on second and third downs. If you buy into this theory, then you’ll agree with me that there is a clear-cut leader on a couple of teams that have backs more or less splitting ball-carrying duties. In Tampa Bay, Mike Alstott is averaging 5.0 yards per carry on first down (67 carries for 337 yards), while Warrick Dunn is averaging only 2.9 yards (76 carries for 221 yards) in those situations. In Buffalo, Antowain Smith is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on first down (80 carries for 380 yards), while Jonathan Linton is only averaging 3.2 yards (48 carries for 152 yards) in those situations.

• Patriots RB Terry Allen and Packers RB Dorsey Levens have been getting stronger as games go on this season. Allen is averaging only 2.9 yards per carry in the first halves of games (ninth-worst in the NFL among those who have enough carries to qualify for this stat), compared to 4.6 yards per carry in the second halves of games (ninth-best in the NFL). Levens is averaging 2.7 yards per carry in the first halves of games (sixth-worst in the NFL), compared to 4.4 yards per carry in the second halves of games (12^th-best in the NFL).

• Given that he’s a big back, I’m surprised that Vikings RB Leroy Hoard’s numbers get worse in the second half when you’d expect defenses to be wearing down. Hoard is averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the first halves of games (fourth-best in the NFL), compared to 3.2 yards per carry in the second halves of games (10^th-worst in the NFL).

• Panthers RB Tim Biakabutuka has virtually been invisible in the fourth quarters of games this season. Although he is averaging 10.6, 4.1 and 7.2 yards per carry in the first, second and third quarters of games, respectively, this season, he is averaging a mere 1.8 yards per carry in the fourth quarters of games.

• It’s been boom or bust carrying the ball for Rams RB Marshall Faulk this season. In four different games this season, he has averaged 2.8 yards or worse per carry (2.8, 2.1, 0.9 and 1.4, to be specific). In the other six games he has averaged 4.6 yards or better per carry in each game (6.0, 4.6, 5.6, 8.3, 10.1 and 6.2). Faulk has gotten stronger in the second quarters of each half this season. He is averaging 4.8 and 4.0 yards per carry in the first and third quarters of games this season, compared to 6.1 and 6.5 yards per carry in the second and fourth quarters of games.

• Titans RB Eddie George is really coming on this season. He averaged only 2.9 yards per carry in his first five games of this season, but he has averaged 4.5 yards per carry in his last five games. He averaged 3.2 yards per carry in September, 3.8 in October and 4.2 so far in November.

• Packers RB Dorsey Levens has been less and less effective in the ground game as the season has progressed. Levens averaged 4.3 yards per carry in September, 3.5 in October and only 3.0 so far in November.

• Jets RB Curtis Martin is still piling up the yards as evidenced by the fact that he has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games, but the yards have been getting harder to come by as the season has progressed. Martin averaged 4.4 yards per carry in September, 4.1 in October and 3.7 so far in November.

• Here’s a surprising statistic: Cowboys RB Emmitt Smith has been more effective on the road than at home this season. He is averaging 3.5 yards per carry at home, compared to 4.4 on the road. This is especially odd when you consider the fact that the Cowboys’ three home games to date have been against Washington, Arizona and Atlanta — all of which have had difficulties defending the run this season. Smith was held to under 4.0 yards per carry in each of those home games.

• Eagles RB Duce Staley has displayed remarkable consistency from quarter to quarter this season. He is averaging over 4.0 yards per carry in each quarter. The numbers are 4.1 yards per carry in first quarters of games, 4.5 in second quarters, 4.1 in third quarters and 5.0 in fourth quarters.

• The early-season excitement over Raiders RB Tyrone Wheatley should be modified. Wheatley averaged 4.5 yards per carry in the first four games of this season, but he has averaged only 3.0 yards per carry in his last six games. In fact, in his last six games, he has averaged over 3.3 yards per carry in only one game.

Editor's note: To see the NFL statistical section that Pollack refers to, click here, and to see the NCAA statistical section that is also available, click here.

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