Friday, Oct. 15, 1999

By the numbers

Statistical nuggets on Warner, Plummer, Aikman and more

By Ron Pollack, Editor-in-chief

What follows are the statistics that grabbed my attention:

• Rams QB Kurt Warner has a passer rating of 136.0, which is flat out mind-boggling. What is really amazing to me, though, is how incredibly consistent he has been in posting that passer rating. He has been amazing in the first quarters of games (135.5), in the second quarters of games (127.7), in the third quarters of games (113.7) and the fourth quarters of games (133.4). His completion percentage has been improving at a frightening rate. In the first game of the season he completed 63.6 percent of his passes. He followed that up with 68.0 percent in his next game, followed by 81.0 percent and then 87.0 percent. At this rate, he may not throw an incompletion during the second half of the season.

• Cardinals QB Jake Plummer must really hate to fly. How else do you explain the fact that his passer rating in three away games this season is a puny 29.0? He has thrown 10 interceptions in three road games, compared to only two picks in two home games this season. Whether Plummer is at home or away this season, an alarm clock seems to be needed for him. In the first quarter of games this season, his passer rating is a horrendous 12.2.

• The really scary thing about Colts QB Peyton Manning is that he still has a lot of room for improvement. His passer rating is a very healthy 93.2 in spite of the fact that he is on pace to throw 24 interceptions this season. Just imagine how high his passer rating will be in a couple of seasons when he cuts down on the picks. You also know that down the road Manning will improve on his fourth-quarter passer rating, which is only 50.7 so far this season. If the Colts really want to see Manning’s passer rating skyrocket, maybe they should consider throwing to the right side of the field more often. Manning’s passer rating is 109.9 on the right side, compared to 67.3 on the left side and 54.4 in the middle of the field. Manning has been especially effective this season in three-WR formations. His passer rating is 115.4 in three-WR sets, compared to 94.2 in two-WR formations.

• In the past six seasons, the most interceptions Cowboys QB Troy Aikman has thrown in one season is 13. This season Aikman is on pace to throw 28 interceptions. Unlike Manning, Aikman clearly prefers to throw when there are two-WR sets instead of three-WR formations. Aikman’s passer rating in two-WR formations is 105.4, compared to 25.4 in three-WR formations. Strangely enough, Aikman has thrown more to the right side of the field this season, even though that has been his least effective area to throw to. On the right side his passer rating is 53.0, compared to 109.3 on the left side and 99.7 in the middle of the field.

• Here’s a surprising statistic: Broncos QB Brian Griese has been better when his team has been trailing than he has been when playing with a lead. Griese’s passer rating is only 47.8 when the Broncos have had the lead, compared to 73.6 when Denver has trailed.

• Raiders QB Rich Gannon has been very impressive when his back has been to the wall this season. His passer rating is a whopping 117.6 when the Raiders have been pinned inside their own 20-yard line. Gannon has thrown the ball more to the right side of the field than the left this season, but maybe it should be the other way around. His passer rating is 116.8 on the left side, compared to 81.5 on the right and 71.8 in the middle of the field.

• Chiefs QB Elvis Grbac hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this year, but he has been excellent inside the red zone, where he has completed 7-of-8 for two touchdowns and no interceptions (134.4 passer rating). He is another quarterback who has thrown more to his least effective side this season than any other portion of the field. He has thrown more passes to the right side where his passer rating is a mere 47.8, compared to 90.9 in the middle and 91.5 on the left side.

• Here’s something that will put a smile on the face of a head coach: Buccaneers RB Mike Alstott is averaging 7.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of games this season.

• Along similar lines, Colts RB Edgerrin James is averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the second halves of games this season, compared to only 2.3 in the first halves of games. Packers RB Dorsey Levens is averaging 5.3 yards per carry in the second halves of games this season, compared to only 3.3 in the first halves.

• Hmmm, this is rather strange. When you think of a bruising running back like the Steelers’ Jerome Bettis, you think of someone who should be wearing down opposing defenses as the game goes on. Yet he has been getting the ball less as games go on (26 carries in the first quarter, 22 in the second, 18 in the third and 12 in the fourth.

• Along similar lines, I am very surprised to see that Emmitt Smith has been less effective, at least statistically, in the fourth quarters of games this season. He is averaging 3.7 yards per carry in the first quarters of games, 6.1 in the second, 3.8 in the third and only 3.0 in the fourth. Given the fact that Smith is having yet another strong campaign, along with the fact that he runs behind a very strong offensive line, I would have expected his fourth-quarter numbers to be much better.

• Perhaps the Bears should start running Curtis Enis to the right side of the field more often. He is averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the right side, compared to 2.2 on the left and 2.3 up the middle.

• Chargers LB Junior Seau has not been as productive statistically in the second halves of games this season as he has been in the first halves of those games. He has 21 total tackles in the first halves of games this year, compared to only 10 in the second halves of those contests.

• Conversely, Giants DE Michael Strahan has really turned it up a notch in the second halves of games. All four of his sacks this season have come in the second halves of games. Furthermore he has 12 total tackles in the second halves of games, compared to six in the first halves.

• Here’s more proof that Buccaneers DT Warren Sapp has gotten himself into much better shape this season than he was a year ago. Five of his six sacks have come in the second halves of games.

• Ravens LB Ray Lewis has been Mr. Consistency this season. He has reached doubled digits in total tackles in each of his five games this season. Furthermore, he has 32 tackles in the first halves of games, compared to 30 in the second halves of those contests.

Editor's note: To see the NFL statistics section that Pollack refers to, click here, and to see the NCAA statistics section that is also available, click here.

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