| In the last installment of a three-part series, PFW
editor-in-chief Ron Pollack looks at the two divisions he rates fifth and sixth based on
the quality of their quarterbacks.
Super elite: None.
Elite: Mark Brunell, Jaguars.
Middle of the pack: Kordell Stewart, Steelers; Steve McNair, Titans.
Bottom 10: Scott Mitchell, Ravens; Jeff Blake, Bengals; Ty Detmer, Browns.
Analysis: Brunell has developed into a very nice pro, certainly surpassing the
earlier projections for his career when he came out of college. Whether he will be able to
elevate his play to super-elite status is the intriguing question about him now. He has
the mobile style that is becoming so popular, he plays in a very good system for
quarterbacks and he has outstanding skill-position talent around him. All the pieces are
in place for him to become a superstar. Now he just has to go out and make the leap from
very, very good to superstar. My guess is that he won’t quite reach super-elite
status, but I’m certainly not ruling out the possibility.
Heading into last season, I thought Stewart was on track to revolutionize the QB
position down the road. Then he had a disastrous 1998 campaign. Thus, the jury is out on
him. I would feel better about Stewart’s outlook if he had handled the adversity
better than he did last season. That said, I think he will be just fine if the Steelers
maintain their patience. Last year proved that Stewart is a work in progress who will have
to be developed if he is to become a star. I now think the process will take time, but I
think Stewart will eventually be a standout in the NFL.
McNair is an interesting case. Is the glass half full or half empty? He seems to get a
little better every season, which is a positive. He doesn’t look that great doing it,
though, and hasn’t been allowed to let it fly downfield, which is a negative. I think
it’s too soon to say which of these extremes is indicative of where McNair is heading
with his career.
I always believed in Mitchell more than most when he was with the Lions, but even I was
falling off the bandwagon by the beginning of last season when he got benched. Most of the
new places he might have landed probably would have caused me to dismiss him, but the fact
that he is a Raven and will get to work with Brian Billick makes me somewhat optimistic,
but not to the point that I’ll say, yes, he definitely will become a quality NFL
starter. Instead, it makes me keep an open mind to the possibility that Mitchell can still
be an effective NFL starter. Wait and see.
It’s now or never for Blake. This figures to be his last shot as a starter in
Cincinnati, and, even if he plays well, how long will he be able to keep the starting job
with Akili Smith waiting in the wings? Looking at his situation positively, there is
little pressure on him and he is playing for a contract, so maybe he just lets it rip and
regains some old magic. Looking at his downside, he doesn’t seem to have figured out
the nuances of the QB position, and if Carl Pickens leaves Cincinnati, Blake will be
without his best weapon. My best guess though is that Blake’s future in the
not-to-distant future is on the bench, be it in Cincinnati or elsewhere.
It’s not a matter of if Detmer will eventually be replaced by Tim Couch but when.
Nothing more needs to be said.
Interesting young backups: Couch and Smith will be fun to watch as they try to
develop. There have different styles but have plenty of ability in both cases. Couch has
to prove that it was not the system in college that led to his success. It says here that
it wasn’t just the system. Couch will be a fine pro. The fact that the Browns have
shown signs of being a very well-run organization bodes well for the talent that will
surround him down the road. The thing that I like about Smith is that not only does he
have great talent, but by having been through the rigors of several years in minor-league
baseball, I think he will bring a maturity to the NFL that should serve him well.
Tony Banks is a player whom some people looked at as having intriguing potential while
he was with the Rams. I was never one of those people. I have never seen Banks as anything
more than a tease. Yes, he’ll make some exciting plays, but I don’t think he can
do so on a consistent basis. In his favor is the fact that he has offensive guru Billick
as his head coach in Baltimore. Banks must become much less mistake-prone if he is ever to
become an effective NFL starter.
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Super elite: None.
Elite: None.
Middle of the pack: Bubby Brister, Broncos; Jim Harbaugh, Chargers; Rich Gannon,
Raiders.
Bottom 10: Elvis Grbac, Chiefs; Jon Kitna, Seahawks.
Analysis: Although the AFC West ranks dead last in QB play, there is actually
room for optimism, since Brister and Kitna figure to play beyond their current rankings
because of the excellent offensive systems that will be in place for them. Harbaugh could
also be more effective than expected if the strong Charger defense allows him to play on a
short field.
If you go on what Brister did in his career before he joined the Broncos, you’d
probably put him in the bottom-10 category. If you go by what Brister did when he started
for an injured John Elway last season, you’d probably put Brister in the elite
category. For now we’ll split the difference. Given Mike Shanahan’s great system
on offense, the fact that there is a terrific QB coach in Gary Kubiak and the fact that
there is an outstanding ground game with RB Terrell Davis, a wonderful offensive line and
first-rate OL coach Alex Gibbs, there is every reason to believe Brister will succeed.
Brister’s lack of pedigree prevents him from being included in the elite category
right now, but the call here is that he will earn elite status in the coming season.
Harbaugh is a terrific leader. He is exactly what the doctor ordered for a Charger team
that, despite a great defense, struggled in 1998 because of Ryan Leaf’s immaturity
and inexperience. Harbaugh can’t carry a team, but he can take advantage of the
benefits that go with an excellent defense, a strong running game and a solid offensive
line.
There isn’t a ton of sizzle to Gannon’s game, but he was very effective when
he started for the Chiefs. He’ll have nice weapons to throw to in WR Tim Brown and TE
Rickey Dudley, and head coach Jon Gruden knows how to utilize quarterbacks, so
there’s every reason to believe that Gannon can be a solid starter for the Raiders.
Now that the Jeff George experiment is over in Oakland, look for Gannon’s leadership
to be well-received. We aren’t talking star performances from Gannon, but the
prediction here is that he will efficiently take advantage of the resources around him.
I have never been a big Grbac backer. I thought he was overrated in college and felt
his success in San Francisco was due to the system making him look good. In both cases, it
seemed to me that he didn’t impress as much as he should have, given the resources
around him. That said, I was stunned by his success during his first year in Kansas City
when he seemed more mobile and effective than I thought possible. I thought perhaps I had
been too harsh in my judgment of him and went into last season with an open mind. He had a
very poor 1998 campaign, however, so I am skeptical of him once again. The question right
now is whether ’97 was a mirage or a level of play Grbac can attain again. Warren
Moon is waiting in the wings if Grbac falls apart.
I reluctantly included Kitna in the bottom 10 because he has so little experience, but
I think he will perform at a higher level. I very nearly listed him in the
middle-of-the-pack category simply because I really believe he will play well this season,
based upon the exciting potential he has displayed in the past in limited action. Assuming
he wins the starting job, Kitna will benefit mightily from playing in Mike Holmgren’s
system.
Interesting young backups: As a rookie, Ryan Leaf did far too many things wrong
both on and off the field. As a result, he does not figure to have a huge 1999 since
Harbaugh was brought in for the short term. Do I expect Leaf to grow up overnight? No. Do
I expect him to grow up a little in the short run? Maybe. Do I still expect him to be a
very good quarterback down the road? Absolutely. Why? Consider this scouting report on
Leaf just before he was drafted: "Very self-confident to the point where some people
view him as being arrogant and almost obnoxious. However, (Washington State head coach
Mike) Price swears that, once you get to know him, Leaf is a great person." In other
words, it was predictable that Leaf was going to blow up early in his pro career. Maybe
not to the degree that he has, but it seems to be a pattern with him to alienate people
early on. In college he eventually delivered. So long as he doesn’t get so far into
the Charger doghouse that he can never get out, he figures to deliver as a pro down the
road as well.
Brian Griese should be very solid in the future for Denver, for all the reasons that
Brister should be successful this season. For years the 49ers have been a franchise where
a quarterback can have a lot of success. I think Denver is about to develop that same
reputation, thanks to Shanahan’s wonderful system.
If Kitna falters, don’t rule out the possibility of Brock Huard developing into a
solid pro under Holmgren. Huard has some very interesting qualities as a quarterback. He
did not have a great season last year in college, but if Holmgren can help him get back
his confidence and take advantage of his positives, Huard could be worth keeping an eye
on.
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