| For my money, the best division in the National Football
League is the AFC East. There are a number of reasons, but the biggest explanation is that
the QB talent in the AFC East is far superior to that in any other division. The fact
that, in Bill Parcells and Jimmy Johnson, the AFC East has two of the four best head
coaches in the NFL is also a significant reason for the strength of the AFC East. But if
you are looking for an across-the-board explanation that encompasses all five AFC East
teams, then you should take a look at the quarterbacks.
The QB play in the AFC East isn’t just a little bit better than that of any other
division. It is a lot better. There are a dozen elite or super-elite quarterbacks in the
NFL. The AFC East has five of them. Every other division has two or fewer. That is a huge
disparity.
This firepower at the QB position goes a long way toward explaining why the AFC East
has two strong Super Bowl contenders (Dolphins and Jets), one very strong playoff
contender (Bills), yet another strong playoff contender if a hole at running back caused
by injury can be solved (Patriots) and one of the league’s more intriguing
up-and-coming teams (Colts). Although one of these teams will have to finish in last place
this season, not a one of them is a fifth-place-caliber team. Heck, there may not even be
a fourth-place-caliber club in the AFC East if the Colts make the big jump I expect from
them. There are no soft touches in the AFC East.
With this in mind, let’s rank the QB play by division, placing the starters into
four categories: Super elite, elite, middle of the pack and the bottom 10. The players
expected to start the opening game are the ones who will be included. A special category
for highly touted rookies and other interesting young backups is included for analysis
purposes, since they very well could be starting before this season is completed.
Super elite: Dan Marino, Dolphins.
Elite: Peyton Manning, Colts; Drew Bledsoe, Patriots; Vinny Testaverde, Jets;
Doug Flutie, Bills.
Middle of the pack: None.
Bottom 10: None.
Analysis: I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these players voted to the
Pro Bowl at the end of the season. Obviously they can’t all make it, but each and
every one of these players has the ability to play at a Pro Bowl level.
Although Marino is the only quarterback in the division to earn super-elite honors,
don’t be surprised if he has the least notable season as an individual, since the
Dolphins finally appear ready to keep their every-year promise of establishing a ground
game. Whatever Marino lacks in individual glory, however, he should more than gain back in
team success since the Dolphins will make a strong run for the Super Bowl.
Testaverde played at a super-elite level last season, but he’s got to do it again
to be taken seriously for that category. Flutie is a winner who always seems to find a way
to get the job done. Bledsoe is an outstanding quarterback who answered some of the
critics’ questions last year about his leadership when he played through an injury
and led his club to a couple of dramatic wins.
While it’s somewhat risky to put Manning in the elite category since he has only
played one pro season — meaning a sophomore slump is a distinct possibility — I
personally think he is the real deal and should join the super-elite tier in 2-3 seasons.
I think you can win a Super Bowl with Marino, Testaverde, Flutie or Bledsoe right now
if you have the right talent on the roster. (Note that the Patriots don’t at the
moment because they lack a proven No. 1 running back and their offensive line doesn’t
appear to be good enough to win the whole ball of wax, while the Bills might be just a
shade short of Super Bowl personnel across the board.) Give Manning two more years of
experience, and he too will be a quarterback who can win a Super Bowl if he has the right
supporting cast (which, obviously, he doesn’t at the moment, although his club is
headed in the right direction).
Interesting young backups: Although Flutie is "the Guy" for now, Rob
Johnson still has a future in this league as a starter. Once Father Time catches up to
Flutie (I don’t think it will be this year), look for Johnson to be quite productive.
Just how productive will depend on his ability to learn the nuances of the game and
provide Flutie-like magic.
Top of page
Super elite: Brett Favre, Packers.
Elite: Randall Cunningham, Vikings.
Middle of the pack: Erik Kramer, Bears; Trent Dilfer, Buccaneers.
Bottom 10: Charlie Batch, Lions.
Analysis: While the NFC Central does not come close to the AFC East, it is a
clear No. 2 in division rankings by quarterbacks in my estimation.
It certainly doesn’t hurt the NFC Central’s ranking to have Favre. Not only
is Favre the best quarterback in football, he just may be the best player in the game
regardless of position. Personally, I rank Denver RB Terrell Davis as the NFL’s best
player at this moment, but Favre is a close second.
Cunningham played at a super-elite level last season, but I can’t elevate him to
that level just yet. First of all, I need to see that last year was not just a shocking
mirage. There’s also the question of whether you can rank someone as super elite when
so much of his success was predicated on throwing jump balls and letting his superbly
talented corps of receivers go up and get them. Finally, Cunningham’s poor
performance in last season’s NFC championship game vs. Atlanta keeps me from calling
him a super-elite quarterback. I think it still remains to be seen whether Cunningham can
deliver in the big game. Now let’s step back a minute. All of these concerns are not
meant to be Randall bashing. He is coming off a monster season and will probably post huge
numbers once again. The concerns are simply meant to explain why he hasn’t scaled the
super-elite mountain just yet. As far as divisions go, though, the fact that Cunningham is
only the second-best quarterback shows why the NFC Central rates so high.
Kramer is a solid quarterback who could actually surprise some people if Curtis Enis
and the ground game provide balance to the offense. Kramer’s inability to stay
healthy hurts his ranking.
I actually think more of Dilfer than most. Yes, he took one step backward last year,
but the season before, he was a Pro Bowler. He is still a relatively young quarterback
who, if the team sticks with him over the long haul (and that’s no guarantee with
rookie Shaun King lurking), should be a quality starter down the road.
I’m still taking a wait-and-see attitude with Batch. Yes, he exceeded all
expectations last season, but I want to see what he accomplishes when a heavier burden of
the offense is placed upon him. I do not rule out the possibility that he can become a
very fine pro, but I also think he is much more likely to succumb to the sophomore jinx
than the Colts’ Manning. If you press me for an answer, I’ll predict that Batch
will be respectable in the foreseeable future, but on the flip side I would not be even
slightly shocked if he were to get benched for Gus Frerotte at some point in the upcoming
season. Although I listed Batch in the bottom-10 category, he missed making the
middle-of-the-pack category by the narrowest of margins.
Interesting young backups: This division has a lot of them, which also helps its
ranking. Cade McNown of the Bears is the most likely to see the playing field this season
because of Kramer’s history of injury problems. McNown may not have the prototype
size, but he is one of those players who finds a way to make things happen and win games.
Tampa Bay’s King was not taken until the second round, but if Dilfer doesn’t
jump-start his career, King could eventually find himself as the quarterback of the future
down the road when the Buccaneers are ready to contend for titles. King is another
quarterback who may not impress you with prototype size, but he grabs your attention with
his productivity. Even if Dilfer falls apart this year, King may not find the field
because of the presence of Eric Zeier. Daunte Culpepper may have been a first-round draft
choice, but it will probably take absolute disaster for him to start this season since the
Vikings have Jeff George to back up Cunningham. Down the road, however, Culpepper would
seem to be the clear-cut quarterback of the future (unless Cunningham gets hurt and George
comes in and sets the world on fire while leading the Vikings to a Super Bowl title).
Top of page
Wednesday: Find out which divisions Pollack ranks third and fourth, and the reasons
why. |
