| If there is one thing I have
learned from talking to fantasy football players, it is that there is no such thing as too
much information. With this in mind, I thought it would be fun to take an early —
very early — look at the draft board for the 2000 season.
Obviously, a lot will change between now and Draft Day, but this draft board only
factors in what we know to be true right now. It won’t account for possible
free-agency losses, draft choices added, preseason injuries, etc. Thus, there will be no
rookies on this list.
With this in mind, here is one man’s opinion on how the draft board, regardless of
position, for the 2000 season looks as of Jan. 12, 2000:
1. RB Edgerrin James, Colts — He was sensational as a rookie, and he should
only get better. Thus, as great as his fantasy numbers were this season, there might still
be some upside for him. It’s hard to imagine the Colts’ offense slipping at all
next season.
2. RB Stephen Davis, Redskins — A year ago he wasn’t even the favorite
to win the starting job. Now he is coming off of a monster season. If you draft him,
though, you’ll want to pick Skip Hicks later in your draft for insurance purposes.
3. WR Randy Moss, Vikings — With opposing defenses adjusting to him in
1999, he did not seem quite as dominant as he was the previous season. Even so, Moss tied
for second in the PFW scoring system among all NFL wide receivers. Thus, at worst, Moss
figures to be good for 11-12 touchdowns. If I knew for sure that Fred Taylor and Terrell
Davis would stay healthy, I’d put them ahead of Moss, but since no one will make that
guarantee for me, I think Moss is the safer pick.
4. WR Marvin Harrison, Colts — As long as Peyton Manning stays healthy,
Harrison will post huge fantasy numbers. I don’t really see any of the Colts’
other receivers cutting very much into his numbers in the near future. The same theory
used on taking Moss ahead of Taylor and Davis applies to Harrison in my thinking.
5. RB Fred Taylor, Jaguars — How brave are you? How much of a gambler are
you? That is the question you have to ask when considering Taylor. If he stays healthy for
16 games, he could very well be the most productive fantasy scorer in the year 2000. An
injury-filled season like Taylor had in 1999, however, can be maddening for fantasy
players. One thing is certain: With the Jaguars’ offensive line, whoever carries the
ball for Jacksonville in 2000 will be a big-time scorer.
6. RB Terrell Davis, Broncos — The same questions that apply to Taylor
apply to Davis, only more so since his 1999 injury was much worse. If he returns to his
old form, Davis will be the No. 1 fantasy scorer in 2000. The question is: Will it take
him another year to be running at 100 percent, or will Davis pick up exactly where he left
off before he got hurt when he was the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts (that
didn’t give six points for TD passes).
7. RB Marshall Faulk, Colts — In the past, his attitude always scared me
off, but Faulk seems to have matured. As just a ballcarrier, Faulk wouldn’t rank this
high, put his pass-catching skills move him way up the draft board.
8. QB Peyton Manning, Colts — Even though he is very young, Manning is so
mature and has such tremendous work ethic that I can’t see his play slipping one bit.
I rank him third among the Colts’ "Triplets" because I tend to downgrade
quarterbacks some due to the frequency with which they get hurt. That said, Manning has
been very durable.
9. QB Kurt Warner, Rams — Off of this season’s productivity Warner
should be the No. 1 pick in the draft, but he’s only done it for one season, so I am
a little reluctant to move him higher. Also, the specter of Trent Green keeps me from
ranking Warner higher. Even if Warner wins the starting job in training camp, if you draft
him, you absolutely have to draft Green to protect against a possible in-season
injury/benching.
10. RB Emmitt Smith, Cowboys — Last season I had him ranked much higher
than everyone I knew and was vindicated by his tremendous fantasy campaign. I suspect that
once again Smith’s age will keep fantasy experts from ranking him this high, but
I’m taking the attitude that Smith has plenty left in his tank for the 2000 season,
especially running behind such a strong offensive line.
11. QB Jeff George, Vikings — If George is the starter next season, he will
again post monster numbers. Keep in mind when looking at his 1999 stats that he did not
begin the season as the starter. With Randy Moss and Cris Carter as his receivers and RB
Robert Smith to keep defenses honest, George could post enormous numbers over 16 games.
12. WR Cris Carter, Vikings — "All he does is score touchdowns."
That alone is reason to feel good about drafting Carter.
13. WR Isaac Bruce, Rams — As long as he
stays as healthy as he did in 1999, Bruce will be a big-time scorer in 2000. If the Rams
keep both Kurt Warner and Trent Green on the roster, people who select Bruce in 2000
won’t have to worry about the impact that a QB injury could have on the star
receiver.
14. QB Brett Favre, Packers — If last season was an aberration, then I am
undervaluing Favre, who was a consistent 30-plus-TD guy before 1999. If Favre can stay
healthy, his numbers will improve, but I’m not sure that the weapons around him are
as dependable as in the past.
15. WR Keyshawn Johnson, Jets — Even with all the QB problems the Jets had
this past season, Johnson posted very respectable numbers. If Vinny Testaverde can stay
healthy, Johnson should reach the double-digit mark for touchdowns.
16. RB Eddie George, Titans — I was never on his bandwagon in the past, but
I think he has finally broken through. If the Titans ever decide to really turn QB Steve
McNair loose, causing defenses to respect the pass more, George could really be dangerous.
17. RB Ricky Williams, Saints — Yeah, I know he was a fantasy disaster this
season, but I just don’t see him being so injury-prone again in 2000. A lot depends
on whether the Saints bring in a decent quarterback. If they do, move Williams up a little
on the draft board. If they don’t, move Williams down some on the draft board.
18. RB Jamal Anderson, Falcons — He’s coming off a big injury, which
attaches risk to him on Draft Day, but he could also provide big return on the investment.
19. RB Curtis Martin, Jets — Given that Vinny Testaverde’s injury
allowed defenses to pay more attention to him, Martin had a wonderful season in 1999. With
Testaverde’s return in 2000, Martin should become a more productive fantasy scorer.
20. RB Dorsey Levens, Packers — His versatility as a runner and receiver
should again make him a solid 10-TD threat. He is getting to an age when injuries could
start to become more bothersome.
21. QB Brad Johnson, Redskins — He looks as though he should be a
consistent scorer for years to come. Before 1999, however, injuries were an issue for
Johnson.
22. WR Marcus Robinson, Bears — Big-play threat who seems like a good bet
for double-digit touchdowns and plenty of bonus points for long scores. The fact that he
seemingly came from nowhere prevents him from being ranked any higher. If he does it one
more time, then he moves way up.
23. QB Steve McNair, Titans — If the Titans ever open up the offense,
McNair could provide an avalanche of fantasy points. Even if that doesn’t happen in
2000, the damage McNair does rushing for touchdowns makes him worthy of this spot.
24. WR Antonio Freeman, Packers — Has dropped on the draft board after a
subpar 1999. Has he lost something, or did his play simply suffer because of health
reasons? The guess here is that his numbers will improve in 2000, but don’t expect a
repeat of 1998, when he caught 14 TD passes.
25. QB Steve Beuerlein, Panthers — I’m a little uneasy putting
Beuerlein this high because of one-year-wonder concerns as well as the gnawing feeling
that he can’t possibly stay healthy in 2000 if he takes as much of a beating as he
did in 1999. That said, he was way too productive this past season to completely leave off
of this list, especially if the Panthers can re-sign WR Muhsin Muhammad. |
