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Colts QB
Peyton Manning |
The Falcons started last season with about a 1-in-200 chance of going to the Super
Bowl. If you had bet on a Falcons-Jets Super Bowl, you probably would have won about
$5,000 for every two bucks you bet. And only about 20 minutes of clock time in Denver
prevented that improbable matchup from taking place.
With more and more parity in the NFL and no truly great team, the chances for teams
such as the Falcons and Jets to emerge are much greater. What follows is a look at a few
teams who could surprise the experts in 1999. We look at potential pros and cons for each
of these teams, which are listed alphabetically.
Indianapolis Colts
Pros: The fact that only about a dozen pre-Bill Polian players are
left on the roster can be very misleading. At least half of those players — most
notably TE Ken Dilger, WR Marvin Harrison, DTs Ellis Johnson and Tony McCoy, OT Tarik
Glenn and S Jason Belser — are the types who can start for teams that win Super
Bowls, and most are just entering their prime. By cutting overpriced veterans and trading
players such as Marshall Faulk, Polian was able to create the salary-cap room and sign the
draft picks and free agents he needed to add six potentially quality defensive starters at
key positions, as well as some solid backup types. The Colts needed a top quarterback, and
in Polian’s first year they had the first overall pick in the draft, and a great
young quarterback, Peyton Manning, was sitting there. This year, with the fourth overall
pick, they were in position to replace Faulk with one of two potentially great backs and
took Edgerrin James, who should complement Manning better than Ricky Williams would have.
Having the last-place schedule in the AFC East could mean at least two or three more wins
this season, while the Jets, Dolphins, Bills and Patriots all face much tougher
out-of-division slates.
Cons: Manning could suffer from the sophomore jinx. James may not be
as good as advertised after holding out. With six new starters, the defense could be slow
to jell. The Colts still have to play the Jets, Bills, Dolphins and Patriots a total of
eight times. A few key injuries could knock the Colts out of the race early because they
lack quality depth in a number of key areas, including quarterback and the offensive line.
Kansas City Chiefs
Pros: People tend to forget that for the past four years, whenever the
Chiefs were picked to be mediocre, they finished with the best record in the AFC, and
whenever they were picked to win, they were major disappointments. They underachieve and
then bounce back strong, and the calendar tells us that this should be their bounce-back
year. To do so, they will need much better play from QB Elvis Grbac and a stronger running
game. With the return of OLG Dave Szott and the addition of OT John Tait, the Chiefs could
have the best offensive line in football, assuming they can get Tait signed soon. Bam
Morris could run for 1,200 yards behind that line if he watches his weight and stays out
of trouble. On defense, despite the loss of Dale Carter, the Chiefs still have five or six
players with Pro Bowl ability, starting with Derrick Thomas and Chester McGlockton, who
can be as dominating as anyone when they want to be.
Cons: Grbac may never be good enough to win big. He seems to lack
confidence and, as a result, tends to hold on to the ball too long. Morris has trouble
staying away from trouble, and both Thomas and McGlockton are underachievers. The Chiefs
have too many players who put themselves ahead of the team and don’t always give
their all when things are going wrong.
St. Louis Rams
Pros: If you look at the Rams and the Falcons on a man-for-man basis,
St. Louis has as much talent as Atlanta. Trent Green will not make the sensational plays
Tony Banks made, but Green won’t do things that lose games and won’t turn all
his teammates off by acting like an undisciplined teenager. Marshall Faulk can be a great
runner and receiver. Nobody has two young receivers who can do as much as Isaac Bruce and
Torry Holt if they can stay healthy. Orlando Pace can be as good as any offensive tackle
in the game, and the Rams replaced some soft linemen with tough guy Adam Timmerman and
rugged, blue-collar Andy McCollum. Dick Vermeil still overworks his players in training
camp, but he isn’t burning them out as he did in ’97 and ’98.
Cons: Vermeil could go back to working the team so hard that it plays
the entire year with dead legs. Vermeil’s loyalty to some assistant coaches who are
not getting through to the players could be his undoing, if his fanaticism over his
the-more-you-work-the-better-you-get theory isn’t. Faulk may go in the tank now that
he has signed a fat, new contract; Bruce could pull another hamstring; and Green may not
be able to handle the pressure of being expected to produce as the starter from Day One.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pros: The Buccaneers are entering their fourth season under Tony
Dungy, and very often, young, talented teams struggle in a new coach’s first year,
make the playoffs in his second season, drop back the next and then make huge strides in
the fourth season. (One example is the Patriots under Bill Parcells.) Warrick Dunn is one
of the best runner-receivers in the game. A healthy Mike Alstott would make a huge
difference in the offense. Trent Dilfer may not be a super quarterback, but he could
finally become a solid big-league QB with Eric Zeier nipping at his heels. The young,
promising receivers may be able to start making plays. On defense, Warren Sapp could go
back to playing as he did in 1997 instead of starting the season so fat that he has no
stamina and lacks the great initial quickness that makes him so special, as was the case
in ’98, when he signed a fat, new contract and got lazy and sloppy. The organization
often plays a key role in a team’s success, and Tampa Bay has a good one. Thus far,
Malcolm Glazer has been a model owner, and Rich McKay is the team’s best GM since Ron
Wolf. Although Dungy has not always assembled the best coaching staffs, his ability to
relate to players, develop team chemistry and bring along young players make him a
potentially great head coach. Plus, he seems to work well with a front office and
personnel staff that are largely responsible for the team having so many good young
players for him to work with.
Cons: Dilfer could lose his confidence again. Alstott always seems to
be plagued by injuries. Rookie PK Martin Gramatica could flop, and letting P Tommy
Barnhardt get away could turn out to be costly.
Tennessee Titans
Pros: If QB Steve McNair comes of age, everything else could fall into
place for Tennessee. The three key positions on any offensive line are the two OT spots
and center, and the Titans have one of the best sets of young tackles in football in Brad
Hopkins and Jon Runyan and future Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews in the middle. They have a
great move-the-chains runner in Eddie George and two big receivers, Yancey Thigpen and
Kevin Dyson, who can be physical and also make big plays. Plus, their kickers were as
effective as any in the league last year. Their biggest defensive weakness in 1999 was the
pass rush, but the additions of first-round pick Jevon Kearse and DL coach Jim Washburn
could make a huge difference. With Jeff Diamond, Floyd Reese, Rich Snead and Glenn Cumbee
forming one of the best front offices in football, Bud Adams could turn everything over to
his football people, including the power of the purse, leading to success.
Cons: Head coach Jeff Fisher hung on to as many of his assistant
coaches as he could, and that probably means McNair will still not have the benefit of a
great QB coach working with him every day, and he won’t have a top-rated offensive
coordinator calling plays for him. The defense may not be strong enough in the middle
since the Titans let Gary Walker get away and are trying to replace him with pass-rush
types and a rookie. Adams may still have his bean counters controlling the little things,
which means overworked scouts and coaches on scouting missions will continue to travel the
country in cars, and too many front-office operations will be handled cheaply just to save
a few bucks.
Editor’s note: In the current print
edition of Pro Football Weekly, dated Aug. 29, 1999, Joel Buchsbaum focuses on 14 players
he believes could be on the verge of NFL stardom. The print edition is sold at newsstands
and bookstores throughout the United States or you can call to subscribe now. |
