| First of a two-part series There
are a few keys to success in an auction league draft.
Naturally, it is important to have a good draft board. That alone is not enough,
however. Of critical importance, as well, is having a quality game plan and then the
ability to adjust that game plan on the fly when the unexpected happens during the
auction.
Thus, I thought you might find it interesting to read a "before" and an
"after" to an auction league draft.
On May 3, the editors of Pro Football Weekly held a 10-team basic scoring league
(with some bonuses) auction, the results of which will appear in PFW’s fantasy
football annual (available on newsstands June 27).
Each team has a salary cap of $100. The roster configuration is 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 6
receivers (5 WRs plus 1 TE, or 4 WRs plus 2 TEs), 2 placekickers and 2 defenses. Starting
lineups are 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 receivers (2 WRs plus 1 TE for at least half the season and the
option of 3 WRs for the other half), 1 PK and 1 defense.
Minimum bids are $1 per player.
For the purposes of this story, there will be three parts: (1) my game plan going in,
(2) the team I actually drafted and (3) my comments on how my game plan either worked or
had to be adjusted.
The team I ended up drafting and my comments on how my game plan worked will appear on
ProFootballWeekly.com Friday.
What follows is my game plan heading into the auction league mock draft:
I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that I will spend the minimum $2 on my two defenses,
$2 on my two placekickers and $1 on one tight end (I’ll draft five wide receivers
instead of four).
Defenses are a total matter of luck and gifts from the fantasy gods, so I see no point
spending anything beyond the minimum.
Placekickers are so up and down from year to year, in terms of fantasy value, that once
again I see no point in spending any more than the minimum. My guess is that only a
handful of placekickers will go for more than $1, so what I will do is throw out the names
of placekickers ranked between Nos. 4 and 8 when it is my turn to name a player for the
auction. This way I will still get two highly rated kickers without spending above the
minimum.
As for tight ends, I don’t like to spend much on them for a few reasons. No. 1 is
that in the PFW league you only have to play them half the time, so that limits their
value. No. 2, not many tight ends are consistent scorers, and those who do score (with a
couple of exceptions) can be very up-and-down from year to year. Since most people
probably won’t draft two tight ends in this league, I won’t have to dip
unreasonably far down my draft board. Plus, I expect only a half-dozen tight ends will go
for more than the $1 minimum. Thus, if I throw out the names of tight ends ranked around
No. 5 to No. 9, I should be able to get a decent player at a bargain-basement price.
The real wild-card position for my auction team is quarterback. Quarterback is another
position where I want to be stingy with my money. I have always believed fantasy
championships are won at running back first, followed by wide receiver in a distant
second. I don’t like to break my bank at quarterback, because the players at this
position get hurt so much. I can’t think of anything more painful than spending $30
at a position with a predisposition to injury and then watching the guy get knocked out
for the season. Quarterback is also not a big-money position for me, because the PFW
scoring system gives them three points for TD passes instead of six points as some leagues
do.
I say quarterback is my wild-card position because I can see myself spending the $1
minimum on each of my two quarterbacks, a total of $5 on the two or as much as $10 on the
two.
I won’t be at all surprised if I spend $1 on each of my quarterbacks. The reason
is that after the top seven quarterbacks, I see very little to separate Nos. 8 through 20.
Given that opinion on my part, there is little reason to spend more than the minimum on my
quarterbacks if I don’t get anyone from the top seven.
If I spend $10 on my two quarterbacks, it will be because I decided to part with $9 for
Daunte Culpepper or Steve Beuerlein, whom I rank No. 6 and No. 7 on my QB draft board. I
doubt any of the top five will be available for $9.
The other option I mentioned is $5. That scenario takes place if I am happy with the
rest of my starting lineup and have a little more money left than I had expected. In that
case I might shell out an extra buck or two above the minimum to get the highest guys on
my draft board even though I have said I don’t see a whole lot of difference between
Nos. 8 through 20.
There is one last scenario in which I might spend as much as $21 (although I consider
this to be highly unlikely). I do not have the same concerns as many people as to whether
Kurt Warner can post huge fantasy numbers again. I say he definitely will. If the rest of
the auctioneers get cold feet and his price bottoms out (and I think this is the longest
of shots), I might take him for $20 and completely tear up my game plan.
My prediction on the auction at quarterback is that there will be a feeding frenzy for
the top five quarterbacks (Warner, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Steve McNair and Brad
Johnson). It is possible that a mini bidding war might break out on Culpepper. Also
possible, but less likely, is that a mini bidding war takes place on Beuerlein (this will
be interesting to watch since a lot of people seem very skeptical of what he accomplished
last year). I hope these top quarterbacks go for outlandish prices since I don’t want
to spend a lot at the position. The more money my competition spends at quarterback, the
less they will have to bid against me at running back and wide receiver.
The positions where I want to spend heavily are running back and wide receiver. I am a
believer that in auction leagues you spend most of your budget on your starters and bank
on the fact that backups will come cheap when everyone else runs out of money.
If this draft were being held closer to the start of the regular season, I’d
probably be more inclined to spend a ton on the megasuperstars. I doubt I will now,
however, because there are so few sure things this far removed from Week One of the
regular season.
Colts RB Edgerrin James and WR Marvin Harrison are the only sure things I see. For that
reason, the bidding war on them will probably make them questionable in terms of auction
value. Thus, I doubt I will end up with either of them.
After these players there are a lot of great players who nonetheless have a flaw.
Consider the questions for star wide receivers: Can Antonio Freeman return to form?
Will Randy Moss and Cris Carter be hurt by Culpepper’s inexperience? Will Isaac
Bruce’s hamstring stay healthy for a full season? How will Keyshawn Johnson do with
the conservative Buccaneers?
Consider the questions for star running backs: Will Terrell Davis be slowed by last
year’s injury? Can Fred Taylor stay healthy? Will Marshall Faulk post huge numbers if
the clock strikes midnight on the Rams’ Cinderella season of a year ago? Will Stephen
Davis be a holdout?
A lot of these players will be just fine, but if I am going to spend an enormous
portion of my budget, I’m not thrilled about any air of uncertainty. Of these
players, the guys for whom I think the price is most likely to be right are WRs Moss and
Johnson and RB Davis.
Assuming I only spend $2 on my quarterbacks, my game plan is to spend $47 on my running
backs and $46 on my wide receivers. If I spend more than the minimum on my quarterbacks, I
will scale back on my budget at running back and wide receiver accordingly.
Let’s assume I spend $47 at running back and $46 at wide receiver. Here is my game
plan at those positions.
At running back, I see myself going one of two ways.
One option is to spend $30 on a back like Marshall Faulk or Stephen Davis, $14 on a
player from the pool of James Stewart, Ron Dayne, Jamal Lewis and performers of that
caliber and then $2 on my No. 3 back (that way I can outbid someone at the end of the
draft who can only spend $1) and $1 on my No. 4 back.
Given the fact that there is some uncertainty among backs other than James, my guess is
that the following option is the direction I will go. I would like to take two running
backs for between $20-$23 each. I would be very comfortable doing this because I like a
lot of the running backs who are ranked below the top five or so backs on most draft
boards. These players whom I really like include Davis, Emmitt Smith, Stewart, Jamal
Anderson and Dorsey Levens. I would love it if I could come out of the draft with two of
them. Again, in this plan I would want to spend $2 on my No. 3 back and $1 on my No. 4
back.
At wide receiver, there are six elite players (Harrison, Freeman, Moss, Bruce, Johnson
and Carter). Then there is a drop-off, but I think there is a lot of depth among the next
tier of wideouts.
Thus, I have two game plans and don’t really feel strongly about one over the
other. I will let the auction dictate which way I go.
Option No 1 is to go for one of the elite receivers at a price of $20-$29. I would then
probably spend anywhere from $15-$24 combined for my No. 2 and No. 3 receivers and $1
apiece on my No. 4 and 5 wideouts. In a perfect world, I would take Keyshawn Johnson or
Cris Carter for $20, Marcus Robinson for $15 and Muhsin Muhammad or Jimmy Smith for $9.
Option No. 2 is to ignore the big six if they get too expensive and try to spend a
total of $44 to grab three players from the second tier of wideouts. In a perfect world, I
would take Robinson for $15, Eric Moulds for $15 and Joey Galloway for $14. Given all of
the depth in the second tier of wide receivers, it’s not inconceivable that I could
get three guys I like for less than my budgeted $44, which would allow me to take a better
No. 4 wide receiver and No. 3 running back than I had anticipated.
To Part 2: How the game plan worked out
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