 |
Dolphins PK
Olindo Mare
|
We often use the term "inexact science" when referring to fantasy football
predictions. The phrase is particularly apt when it comes to placekickers, whose
year-to-year production can be surprisingly difficult to project.
For instance, 99.9 percent of fantasy prognosticators ranked Minnesota’s Gary
Anderson as the No. 1 kicker heading into the 1999 season. He was coming off a perfect
regular season (the first of its kind) and was kicking for an explosive offensive team
that played its home games in a dome.
Try as we might to talk fantasy-leaguers off the ledge, many drafters reached for
Anderson earlier than they should have. They should not have been surprised when he scored
only 103 points, which ranked just sixth in the NFC.
Because they’re so unpredictable, placekickers become relatively unimportant
considerations on Draft Day. But you shouldn’t blow off the position entirely in your
preparation. Even if you end up using your last two draft picks to take kickers, you might
as well make sound choices.
With that in mind, we have come up with a theory that should provide some help in
picking the right kickers. It doesn’t work 100 percent of the time, but often enough
to at least qualify as a trend, if not a rule.
There is often a direct correlation between a team’s red-zone efficiency and how
many points its kicker scores. If an offense does very well in the red zone — i.e.,
scores TDs at a high rate — its kicker is less likely to have a standout season.
Conversely, if an offense struggles inside the 20-yard line, there’s a greater chance
its kicker will post big-time point totals.
Last season provided examples of both. After ranking second in the AFC in red-zone TD
efficiency in 1998, the Dolphins fell to 12th in ’99. Not surprisingly, their
placekicker, Olindo Mare, went from 99 points to 144, even though his field-goal
percentage barely changed (from 81.5 percent in ’98 to 84.8 percent in ’99).
The Titans improved from 10th in the AFC in red-zone TD efficiency in 1998 to second in
’99. Thus, despite the team’s prosperity, Al Del Greco’s point total fell
from 136 to 106. In ’98, he missed three FG attempts. In ’99, he missed only
four.
One notable exception to our theory was the aforementioned Anderson. The Vikings had
more red-zone possessions last year than in ’98 but scored touchdowns at a much less
efficient rate (50.8 percent vs. 58.9 percent). Yet Anderson’s point total dropped
because he missed a bunch of kicks he had made the previous season.
Thanks to offseason acquisitions and other changes, the following teams should be
significantly better or worse in the red zone in 2000. Take that into consideration when
assessing their kickers. (Each team’s ’99 red-zone ranking is listed in
parentheses.)
For better
Baltimore (30) — The Ravens have added major firepower at the skill positions
through free agency (red-zone ace Shannon Sharpe) and the draft (RB Jamal Lewis and WR
Travis Taylor). So while PK Matt Stover should kick more extra points, he might not
necessarily have more FG attempts. Temper your enthusiasm.
Chicago (29) — With RB Curtis Enis expected to be at or close to full
strength, and young QB Cade McNown entering 2000 with a season under his belt, the Bears
should be a more effective red-zone team. So even if sixth-round rookie Paul Edinger wins
the PK job and upgrades the play at that position (Bears kickers were dreadfully
inaccurate last season), he might not have a monster season.
Denver (22) — Terrell Davis’ return from injury does not bode well for
Jason Elam, whose point total didn’t fall off too badly in ’99, despite the
Broncos’ overall offensive struggles.
New Orleans (24) — With a new QB, new receivers and a new coaching staff,
the Saints are bound to improve offensively. If Ricky Williams is scoring TDs, the Saints
might not have to call on Doug Brien quite as much as last season (29 FG attempts).
Philadelphia (28) — New ORT Jon Runyan should help the running game, and if
QB Donovan McNabb continues to improve, the Eagles’ offense should be a lot better.
Don’t be surprised if Philly’s kicker (probably David Akers) attempts fewer
field goals than last year (31).
Tampa Bay (31) — Martin Gramatica is one of the best young kickers in the
game, but Keyshawn Johnson’s arrival should make the Buccaneers more dangerous near
the endzone. As with Stover, expect more PATs for Gramatica, but not necessarily more FG
attempts.
For worse
Carolina (6) — Is there any chance aging, brittle Pro Bowl QB Steve Beuerlein
will stay healthy all year again? Look for the Panthers’ offense to fall off a bit,
but for PK John Kasay to prosper in its wake.
Minnesota (13) — Even with Jeff George at QB most of the season, the
Vikings’ red-zone percentage declined dramatically. With Daunte Culpepper at the
helm, it should be worse. Don’t write off Anderson just yet.
St. Louis (2) — Assuming the Rams’ offense comes back to earth just a
smidgen (and it should), PK Jeff Wilkins stands to benefit. He’s bound to have more
than 28 FG attempts, his total last season. |
