Preseason 1999

After Terrell …

… Fred Taylor’s fantasy football prospects appear better than those of Jamal Anderson

By RON POLLACK, Editor-in-chief

Who the next back should be is not so clear cut, however.

Many fantasy football experts seem to be placing the Falcons’ Jamal Anderson at the No. 2 spot on their boards. I disagree. I have the Jaguars’ Fred Taylor at No. 2 on mine.

Here are the reasons:

Carries

Some people are a bit wary of Taylor, because they are afraid that James Stewart might take some carries away.

Personally, I think Anderson is more likely to face a cut in carries this season. Anderson carried the ball an unbelievable 410 times last season. This year Byron Hanspard should return to action to possibly share a little bit of the load.

Taylor ran the ball only 264 times last season. Sure, Stewart missed a ton of action due to injury, but I think the Jaguars would be crazy to use his return as an excuse to lighten Taylor’s load. Stewart’s career-high average per carry is 4.1 yards. Taylor averaged a whopping 4.6 yards per carry last season as a rookie.

That 4.6 figure is truly eye-opening. It’s the sort of number that makes a team want to get a player the ball more, not less. Even with the return of Stewart.

Anderson will still be a workhorse, but I think he is more likely to see a decrease in carries than Taylor is.

Offensive lines

Big advantage to Taylor.

The Jaguars are in phenomenal shape at the OT spots. Tony Boselli is the best offensive tackle in football, and Leon Searcy is a very strong run blocker. The Jaguars aren’t real exciting in the interior of their line, but they may have upgraded themselves with the addition of ex-Ram Zach Wiegert and third-round draft choice Anthony Cesario.

The Falcons’ offensive line simply is not as good. OT Bob Whitfield is a high-quality player, but he still has to prove he can play at an elite level year in and year out. Even if he’s highly motivated this season, Whitfield is still no Boselli. Not being as good as Boselli is not a criticism of Whitfield, but it is an advantage for Taylor. The Falcons’ other OT spot doesn’t even come close to grading out as well as the Jaguars’ with Searcy. In the interior of the Falcons’ line, there are some efficient players but nobody who jumps out at you.

With the Jaguars’ offensive line rating a clear edge over the Falcons’, I can’t help but like Taylor more than Anderson.

Team prospects

Both teams could be very good this season, but the Jaguars are a more proven commodity, while the Falcons must prove last year was no fluke.

Unless massive injuries strike, I can’t imagine the Jaguars missing the playoffs. In other words, they should be on the positive side of the lead a lot, meaning they will want to run the ball and milk the clock.

If it turns out that the Falcons were nothing more than a mirage last season and become a sub-.500 team again, they won’t be able to pound the ball as much as a year ago.

I’m not saying I think the Falcons will fall apart; I actually think they’ll be pretty good. But the fact remains that they are the more uncertain team, and that uncertainty does not work in Anderson’s favor.

What happens if the starting QB gets hurt?

One of the worst things that can happen to a star running back in fantasy football is the starting quarterback getting hurt. Such injuries allow opposing defenses to load up on the run.

If Jacksonville QB Mark Brunell gets hurt, the Jaguars have proven that they can effectively run their offense with a backup signalcaller, thanks to Tom Coughlin’s system, which seems to be easy for quarterbacks to grasp and run.

Dan Reeves’ offense is said to be more difficult for quarterbacks to grasp. Although I think that bringing Danny Kanell in as the backup was a very good move, there is more uncertainty here than for the Jaguars, especially considering Chris Chandler’s history of injuries.

We’ve seen that the Jaguars’ backups can get the job done. We simply don’t know how Kanell will perform as a Falcon. Once again, the greater uncertainty lies with Atlanta and Anderson.

The dream-season theory

Last year was the Falcons’ dream season. You don’t often see that kind of lightning in a bottle two seasons in a row.

Conversely, the Jaguars, having made a number of excellent offseason moves to shore up their defense, may be primed to take a step up in class this year.

Dream seasons are tough to predict, but the Jaguars seem better positioned.

Summary

Anderson never rushed for double-digit touchdowns in a regular season as a pro before last year. Taylor never was a pro before last year.

Thus, neither has the long-term track record to guarantee that they will match last year’s monster fantasy numbers.

Of the two, though, Taylor would seem to have more upside, since he was only a rookie last season and figures to get better and more comfortable in his offense.

Anderson had a clear edge in 100-yard games last year, but I think Taylor will improve in that category this season. Plus, if Anderson’s number of carries decreases, he may notch a fewer 100-yard outings. Anderson still rates the edge in anticipated 100-yard games, but the margin should narrow, and I think Taylor will be a more productive TD scorer.

Despite the fact that I like Taylor better in most categories, I don’t think there is a huge gap between him and Anderson (unless Anderson becomes a training-camp holdout, which was a decent possibility as of this writing). The difference between the two is that there seems to be a little more uncertainty about Anderson in most of the comparisons.

Do I think both will have big fantasy seasons? Absolutely. But for all the reasons outlined, I like Taylor’s prospects better.

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