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Vikings WR
Cris Carter
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As a NASCAR fan, I spend a lot of time thinking about tracks.
Ovals. Superspeedways. Road courses. The different kinds of tracks lead to different
kinds of races and different lists of contenders.
Tracks matter in football too. Every potential draftee runs a 40-yard dash, and many of
them try to find a fast track that will lead to a lower time.
Few athletes have been more impressive on the track than Minnesota WR Randy Moss, whose
remarkable speed and unusual height have helped make him an instant star, both in the NFL
and in fantasy-football circles. After just one pro season, Moss has claimed the title as
PFW’s No. 1 fantasy wide receiver.
But I don’t rank him there. In fact, I don’t even consider Moss the best
fantasy-football receiver on his team. I would take Cris Carter over Moss.
Call me crazy. You wouldn’t be the first. I have received my fair share of
criticism here in the Pro Football Weekly offices for failing to do enough
"projecting" just because I tend to gravitate toward the old reliables instead
of the potential-laden pups. The Carter-over-Moss call has only led to more of the same.
So prepare your weapons. I only ask you to listen to my reasoning before taking your
shots.
Full disclosure: I was not a true believer in Moss’ abilities last season. Going
into the campaign, I believed Moss would be a pretty good fantasy producer, but I
wasn’t prepared to take him as early as others were in a fantasy draft. Still, I
recognized that Moss was as physically gifted as any receiver to enter the draft in my
lifetime, and I believed that excessive talent would lead to moments of greatness.
But I didn’t think Moss would be a consistent performer. Before the season began,
I predicted that Moss would have a six-week string without a TD catch. Playing only two
years of college football, neither against top competition, couldn’t have been enough
to prepare Moss for the NFL, or so I thought.
During the season, my reservations persisted, despite Moss’ early success. NFL
teams, I assumed, would be able to figure out and stop the sandlot pass pattern Moss ran
("Randy, you go deep.").
I was wrong. Moss totaled an amazing 17 TD catches and had 1,313 receiving yards. He
was the top-scoring fantasy receiver under PFW’s scoring system, besting Antonio
Freeman by the equivalent of four touchdowns.
I’ve been won over, at least in part. This season I rank Moss sixth among
receivers on my personal early draft board, behind Freeman, Keyshawn Johnson, Joey
Galloway, Terrell Owens and Carter. But Moss doesn’t top the list.
At this point, some of you are probably wondering about my math skills. Others are
thinking of applying for my job, figuring that if a nut job like me can write about
football, then you can too.
Before you come at me with a straitjacket, let me explain why I still have questions
about Moss.
That six-week scoreless streak that I predicted didn’t happen in ’98, but
Moss didn’t find the endzone for four consecutive Sundays (Weeks Seven through 10).
In my mind, that leaves some question about his consistency.
And I still haven’t seen much polish in Moss’ game. He hasn’t proved he
can go over the middle consistently. According to Stats Inc., 54 of Moss’ 69 catches
in ’98 came on the sideline. Only two came over the middle.
That’s a trend that scares me, because NFL defenses will figure out a way to take
the sideline fly pattern away from Moss, at least to some degree. Sure, Moss has gifts
that can only be described as freakish, which make him superdangerous on deep balls, but
there will not be as many chances for those kind of plays this year.
That will put pressure on Moss to show a more diverse game in ’99. I’m not
going to say he can’t do it, but it would not surprise me at all if Moss goes through
some growing pains this time around.
Opponents will figure out how to limit Moss’ best weapon, the deep pattern, and it
may take time for him to get the second or third piece in his arsenal working. Some may
call the phenomenon a sophomore slump, but it’s just a natural part of the
developmental process.
For those reasons, I can’t imagine Moss putting up numbers any better than he did
last season, but I do envision his TD total dropping to the 10-12 level. That’s not a
bad number at all, but it’s not what you expect from the No. 1 fantasy receiver.
That’s why I have Moss rated as a starting receiver but don’t have him atop my
draft board.
That’s why Moss is downgraded. But why am I so high on Carter? Here, we look to
the track record.
If you want consistency, Carter’s the guy to take. He has 101 career TD catches
and has totaled 17, 10, 13, and 12 scoring grabs over the last four regular seasons.
A big reason that Carter’s TD totals are so consistent is that he’s a
red-zone dynamo. While one could argue that Moss is Minnesota’s No. 1 target between
the 20s, there’s no question that Carter wears the bull’s-eye near the goal
line.
Last season, Vikings quarterbacks targeted Carter 23 times in the red zone and threw to
Moss 18 times. But in that area, Carter scored nine TDs — almost double Moss’
total of five (all according to Stats Inc.).
Short TD catches such as the ones Carter specializes in are far more predictable than
the big plays Moss is known for. That red-zone dependability makes it utterly reasonable
to expect that Carter will once again finish with 10-12 touchdowns.
That puts Carter and Moss in the same boat as fantasy producers in ’99. And
Carter’s pickup truck dependability leads me to rate him one slot above the
high-powered but high-maintenance Moss.
Give me a track record over a track star any day. |
