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"In our opinion" daily fantasy football columns

Monday, Oct. 4, 1999

Week Four observations

Success may hinge on anticipating injuries

By Steve Soucie

Many of you know the drill. Each week you scour the waiver wire, looking for just about anything that will give you just an ounce of an edge over the opposition.

Most times that endeavor leaves you with little gain for all that pain. But once in a while, an ingenious scheme falls through the cracks, and if it isn’t your idea, you start looking for the legality of the maneuver.

In the in-house Pro Football Weekly league, one of the scoundrels has taken to a rather fiendish tactic in the first-come, first-serve waiver draft. As soon as a player gets injured in any way, shape or form, he immediately barks out the backup almost as fast as the player in question falls to the field in agonizing pain.

For example, on Sunday, when Broncos coach Mike Shanahan blurted out that he thought Terrell Davis might be sidelined by an ACL injury, this roguish troublemaker immediately shouted, "I’m claiming Derek Loville."

I would have loved it if it were my tactic. But it wasn’t, so I immediately began questioning his morals and general common decency.

But the real question here is: How can you defeat such a tactic?

I think I have the answer: start predicting injuries.

Yes, I know most of you don’t have medical degrees. But there are some very sound techniques you can use to claim the next waiver-wire success story before the rest of your league catches on to him.

Here are a few players who could prove to be very solid waiver selections on the basis of the starting players’ track record of either poor performance or their weekly trips to the infirmary.

Running backs

Lamar Smith, New Orleans — I know Ricky Williams wasn’t a prime candidate for the injury report in college, but he seems to be developing a persistent pattern for getting dinged up in the NFL. Smith won’t bowl you over with his ability, but if he gets a chance to start, he will probably be more effective than playing a fullback or a backup in place of one of the injured stalwarts.

Kenny Bynum, San Diego — It isn’t really a matter of whether or not starter Natrone Means will get hurt. He always does. But if and when Means goes down for an extended period of time, scoop up Bynum and you will probably by surprised by the results.

Joe Montgomery, New York Giants — This one is a deep sleeper. But odds are Gary Brown’s first trip to the injured list won’t be his last. Sean Bennett isn’t the answer, and Charles Way is nothing more than a goal-line fullback. Montgomery has to do something to warrant his early draft selection, and now that he is overcoming his preseason injuries, he might get a chance to do so soon.

Quarterbacks

Cade McNown, Chicago — He’s a backup. Most people have given up on his fantasy value. But despite the fact that Shane Matthews drove the Bears to a thrilling last-second victory Sunday, Matthews’ abysmal performance in the first three quarters won’t be ignored. McNown will get his chance sooner rather than later.

Shaun King, Tampa Bay — Yes, he’s third on the depth chart. However, Trent Dilfer just isn’t getting the job done, and Eric Zeier has proved at all of his stops in the league that he is little more than a backup. With the Buccaneers struggling to collect wins, they might look to the future, and that future is King.

Erik Kramer, San Diego — He’d probably be little more than a stopgap filler for your roster. But he looked awfully good rallying the troops on Sunday and might be a solid filler for your team.

Wide receivers

Az-Zahir Hakim, St. Louis — Yes, he scored four touchdowns Sunday, and that will send almost everyone to try to pick him up. But if you have the means to do so, scoop him up and he could be a surprise performer. He is the No. 3 man for the Rams right now, but Randy Moss started as the No. 3 guy too. I’m not saying he is as good as Moss, but he certainly wouldn’t hurt your roster.

Kevin Johnson, Cleveland — I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t think he would do much this season. But the Couch-Johnson connection has already connected more times in four weeks than I thought it would all year. Johnson can’t anchor your receiving unit (yet), but he certainly would provide good depth.

Around the league

  • Jeff Garcia looked awfully good scrambling and throwing the football. He wouldn’t be a bad guy to have, especially considering Steve Young’s injury could plague him for the rest of the season.
  • Arizona’s got all kinds of problems right now. For the time being, Jake Plummer, Rob Moore and Adrian Murrell don’t look like good fantasy plays.
  • As surprised as I am to admit it, Baltimore’s Errict Rhett might be back in form. Rhett was bruising his way for yards against a respectable Atlanta defensive front and might be actually capable of living up to his potential.
  • Yes, I mocked Tshimanga Biakabutuka in this space last week. I’ll readily admit that. I also don’t think this week was a true measure of what Biakabutuka can do. I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again: Biakabutuka is not the savior for your fantasy football team. Maybe the secret is limiting him to fewer than 10 carries a game.
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