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Sleepers and busts

Be like the pros: Make a call

By JEFF AGREST, Associate editor
As published in Pro Football Weekly's Fantasy Football Guide '99

Trent Dilfer
Bucs QB
Trent Dilfer

Part of the fun of playing fantasy football is making a call. Pro personnel directors do it all the time. In the late rounds of the NFL draft, when they’re digging through what’s left of their draft boards, it’s inevitable that these personnel heads will have to make a call on a player.

The same holds true in the fantasy world. There comes a time during every draft when the game of "Let’s Make A Call" begins. And Pro Football Weekly is here to help.

What follows is a listing of players to make a call on and some not to make a call on. Or, as they are commonly referred to, sleepers and busts. Players in each category are listed alphabetically.

Potential sleepers

RB Tim Biakabutuka / Panthers

Biakabutuka finished last season strong and has the early edge on Fred Lane for Carolina’s starting RB job. Biakabutuka rushed for more yardage in the final four games of 1998 (377 yards) than he did in either of the ’96 (229) and ’97 seasons (299). He also scored four touchdowns, twice as many as he scored in his previous two seasons. With a solid training camp, Biakabutuka may finally live up to his status as a No. 1 draft pick.

WR Rae Carruth / Panthers

With Raghib Ismail gone, Carruth becomes Carolina’s speed receiver and gets bumped into the starting lineup. Though he missed all but two games last season with a foot injury, Carruth played well as a rookie two years ago, when he finished second on the team in receiving. This year his responsibilities will increase. His production should, as well.

TE Greg Clark / 49ers

Irv Smith’s departure means more playing time for Clark. Smith caught five TD passes last season, so Clark should get some good scoring chances (for a tight end). Though he is known for his blocking, Clark has good hands, and he will see the ball thrown his way. After all, the Niners traded up in the ’97 draft to grab him.

WR Kevin Dyson / Titans

The Titans plan on getting Dyson more involved in the offense. Last season the rookie fell victim to Steve McNair’s inability to get the ball downfield, as well as the coaching staff throwing too much at him too soon. This year Tennessee wants McNair to take more chances and hopes Dyson will come on with a year of experience under his belt. Dyson has great ability, and it would be a crime if he wasn’t utilized.

RB Curtis Enis / Bears

Enis is expected to be fully recovered from a knee injury that shelved him for the final seven games of last season. The shame of it was that he had made his first pro start in the same game he went down. With offensive coordinator Gary Crowton installing a wide-open offensive attack, Enis could benefit from the space created by spread formations. As of presstime, his rehab was ahead of schedule, and the Bears still consider him the centerpiece of their offense.

QB Rich Gannon / Raiders

With the Raiders’ group of receivers, Gannon could become the next retread quarterback to flourish. He is coming off arguably his two finest years as Elvis Grbac’s backup in Kansas City. In Oakland, Gannon will have much more pass-catching talent to work with, though he’ll lose something on the offensive line. However, Gannon can still throw on the run, so he may not be as vulnerable to the pass rush as Jeff George and Co. were last year.

WR Ike Hilliard / Giants

Chris Calloway’s departure means that Hilliard must play a bigger role in the Giant offense. After missing all but two games his rookie year with a neck injury, Hilliard finished second on the team in receiving last season, though he caught only two TD passes. If the Giants can stabilize their QB situation, the stars would be aligned for a big year from Hilliard.

QB Ryan Leaf / Chargers

Jim Harbaugh’s track record doesn’t bode well for him completing the entire season, so there’s a very good chance Leaf will see playing time before all is said and done. A new coaching regime should give Leaf a fresh start after what turned into a tumultuous rookie year. New head coach Mike Riley will try to make things easier for Leaf by using simpler terminology and more diverse sets. Once he gets on the field, Leaf could make people forget ’98.

TE Alonzo Mayes / Bears

Mayes caught only 21 passes last year, but he started all 16 games and is firmly entrenched as the Bears’ No. 1 tight end. In the team’s new offense, Mayes should be targeted more often. He was a fine receiver in college who became his team’s go-to guy, so he’s not out of his league. He just needs to take advantage of his opportunities.

RB Duce Staley / Eagles

Charlie Garner is gone, so there’s no one to threaten Staley’s status as the Eagles’ top running back. Staley is a multidimensional back who can produce in both the running and passing game. He doesn’t dazzle you with ability, but he gets the job done. Staley finished last season strong, rushing for at least 97 yards in three of the last four games. With the Eagle offensive line improving, Staley could end up being a real steal.

 

Potential busts

QB Chris Chandler / Falcons

The oft-injured Chandler has had a nice run the last two seasons, capped off by a trip to Super Bowl XXXIII. But the Falcons aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year. Plus, they lost a major chunk of their passing game with the release of Tony Martin, who caught 66 passes for 1,181 yards and six touchdowns last year. His replacement, Chris Calloway, has never come close to a 1,000-yard season, though he caught eight TD passes in 1997. Still, Calloway isn’t the big-play threat that Martin was, so look for Chandler’s stats to possibly slip some.

PK Steve Christie / Bills

Though Christie set a career high with 140 points last season, he didn’t do it with awe-inspiring accuracy. His 80.5 field-goal percentage was just a smidgen above the league average (79.6 percent) and ranked 15th overall. He also missed several key kicks last season and has been far more inconsistent than in the past. Is Christie’s reliability waning?

QB Trent Dilfer / Buccaneers

As evidenced by their offseason moves, Dilfer is hanging by a thread with the Buccaneers. The team traded for Eric Zeier to back up Dilfer and drafted Shaun King to compete for its quarterback-of-the-future role. Dilfer’s problem is that he is overly dependent on the running game. If it struggles, so does he. While the Buc receivers have let Dilfer down at times, he’s made his share of mistakes, as well. If Dilfer succumbs to the pressures of being under the gun, he will suffer fantasy-wise.

TE Kyle Brady / Jaguars

Last season was the best of Brady’s four-year career. Part of the reason it took so long was because the Jets spent a lot of time figuring out the best way to use him. Brady proved to be effective in a formation that had him line up off the line of scrimmage. In Jacksonville, Brady will return to being a predominately in-line tight end. He’s not walking into the best situation, either. Mark Brunell has a nice comfort level with his wide receivers, and the Jaguars have never really taken advantage of their tight ends. They also have an outstanding running game that could take away scoring opportunities in the red zone.

RB Marshall Faulk / Rams

The Ram running game hasn’t developed under head coach Dick Vermeil. Will Faulk fall victim? He’s had some durability questions in the past, and, as of presstime, a contract holdout appeared to be a possibility. There will undoubtedly be an adjustment period for Faulk, who finally had his best all-around season for the Colts last year. Should he show up late to training camp, Faulk could fall behind in his learning of the offense.

RB Garrison Hearst / 49ers

The injury bug continues to follow Hearst wherever he goes. In 1997, a broken left clavicle ended his season prematurely. Last year a broken leg ended his playoff run. This year … well … we’ll have to wait and see. We know Hearst isn’t going to run behind a very good offensive line. Last season’s was short on star power, and, now that Kevin Gogan is gone, the Niners should be less effective run blocking. Also, Hearst has never been a big TD guy. Last season’s total of nine was a career high. As far as Hearst’s history of injury, that is a pretty big concern in itself. While it’s impossible to predict injuries, we can tell you which players are injury concerns. And Hearst is near the top of the list.

WR Terance Mathis / Falcons

With Tony Martin lined up opposite him, Mathis had a huge season, catching 64 passes for 1,136 yards and 11 touchdowns. But Martin has been replaced by Chris Calloway, a possession receiver who is not the play maker Martin is. That alone could reduce Mathis’ productivity. The last time he recorded 11 scores, Mathis followed it up with a nine-TD season. But that was during the Falcons’ old run-and-shoot days.

WR Carl Pickens / Bengals

As of presstime, Pickens was still the Bengals’ property. But that could change before opening day. Pickens has made no bones about his desire to leave Cincinnati, and the Bengals may try to oblige him. Wherever he goes, expect an adjustment period. Pickens won’t only have to learn a new playbook, he’ll have to learn a new quarterback, and that may take time.

TE O.J. Santiago / Falcons

When the Falcons traded a No. 1 pick in 2000 to move up and draft Mississippi State TE Reginald Kelly, flags went up all around Santiago. Despite an impressive five-TD season last year, he still has a ways to go. Santiago drops more passes then he should. Kelly isn’t the receiver Santiago is, but he is a solid blocker who will see action in two-TE sets. Still, Kelly’s drafting is bad news to fantasy drafters, who hate competitive situations for their players.

RB Ricky Watters / Seahawks

There comes a point in a player’s career when he reaches a ceiling in productivity. Watters is coming awfully close to that ceiling. This will be Watters’ ninth NFL season, and the wear and tear may start to show. When NFL running backs hit the wall, their productivity can decline quickly. How well Watters adapts to that remains to be seen. So does the role of Ahman Green, who could take some carries away. It will also be interesting to see how Holmgren deals with Watters’ … shall we say … confident attitude.

 

You can enjoy more features from Pro Football Weekly's Fantasy Football Guide '99 when you pick up a copy at your favorite bookstore or newsstand. If you can't find it, call 1-800-FOOTBALL (1-800-366-8225) to order a copy.

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