Hey, buster, avoid these players on Draft Day

By PAT FITZMAURICE, Associate editor
As published in print Aug. 17

Chief WR Andre Rison

Everyone wants to talk fantasy football these days, and these conversations usually begin with the same question: "So, who are your favorite sleepers?"

You think I’m going to tell the truth? For all I know, the inquisitor might be a spy dispatched by one of my league rivals. I’m joking, of course. The editors at PFW would never withhold valuable information from our readers (as far as you know).

But, seriously, I’ve wondered why fantasy-leaguers put so much effort into identifying potential sleepers and so little effort into identifying potential busts. A fat lot of good those sleeper lists did for the people who took Cowboy RB Emmitt Smith in the first round of last year’s drafts. Au revoir, playoffs.

Some people realized Bengal RB Corey Dillon was a future star and pounced on him in last year’s drafts. A handful of Dillon owners were unaware of his vast potential but noticed Dillon was the backup to potential bust Ki-Jana Carter. These crafty fantasy owners, even the ones who had never seen Dillon run, cashed in when Carter played himself out of the lineup.

What follows is one man’s list of players to avoid on Draft Day ’98:

QB Kordell Stewart, Steelers — Don’t get me wrong; I advocate the drafting of Stewart if he slides into the second round of your draft. Trouble is, he won’t. Stewart’s 11 rushing touchdowns made him a special fantasy player in ’97. Look for that total to drop in ’98, making Stewart a good fantasy QB rather than a great one.

RB Jerome Bettis, Steelers — Could "the Bus" be this year’s version of Emmitt Smith? Most starting NFL backs have only a handful of good years before they start losing it. Why? Because the horrific pounding a No. 1 back receives begins to take its toll. Bettis has carried the ball 695 times over the last two regular seasons — nine fewer regular-season carries than Smith had in the two years before his ’97 drop-off.

RB Ricky Watters, Seahawks — Lots of miles on the odometer. And why did the Seahawks spend a third-round pick on cat-quick Nebraska RB Ahman Green after they had signed Watters? Green, by the way, has looked phenomenal in the preseason. Hmmm.

QB John Elway, Broncos — So good for so long, but even Elway admits that the Broncos are now RB Terrell Davis’ team. Elway did what he needed to do in Super Bowl XXXII, but his passing stats from that game — 123 yards and zero TD passes — may have been a preview of his farewell tour.

WR Terry Glenn, Patriots —If you had him on your team last year, you’ve probably vowed never to draft him again. Very talented but as brittle as fine china.

RB Terry Allen, Redskins — Allen has had some big years, but his per-carry average has been dropping slowly but surely ever since his first year of pro action — an ominous sign. Allen has a history of knee problems and has talented rookie Skip Hicks looking over his shoulder.

WR Rod Smith, Broncos — Not among the league’s elite receivers, yet many fantasy-leaguers rank Smith right up there with truly elite WR’s such as Isaac Bruce and Michael Irvin. This undoubtedly has something to do with Smith’s 12 TD receptions last season. Don’t expect a similar total in ’98.

PK Mike Hollis — This is not meant as a slight against Hollis, a fine kicker who led the NFL in scoring last season. But kickers’ point totals tend to vary wildly from year to year, often due to circumstances beyond their control. If you’re foolish enough to draft the first kicker, you deserve the disappointment that likely awaits you.

Kevin Dyson, Jacquez Green, Jerome Pathon and every other rookie WR (except Randy Moss) — Receivers rarely have much of an impact as rookies. Rookie backs often have immediate success because they need only to read blocks, find holes and run through those holes quickly. Rookie wideouts, meanwhile, have much to learn about timing, route-running, the tendencies of individual defenders, ways to elude jams, etc. A rare exception to this rule was the ’96 season, when Terry Glenn, Marvin Harrison, Keyshawn Johnson and Eddie Kennison turned in fine rookie years. Things were back to normal in ’97, when the first 10 receivers taken in last year’s draft had a combined 11 TD catches. You’re better off gambling on geezers such as Andre Reed and Terance Mathis. I’m making an exception for Viking WR Randy Moss because I don’t want to look as foolish as all the NFL general managers who passed him over in this year’s draft.

WR Andre Rison, Chiefs — Rison still has one of the best pairs of hands in the league — and he’ll be the first to tell you so. But WR Derrick Alexander has arrived from Baltimore, and TE Tony Gonzalez is ready to just plain arrive. RB Kimble Anders and WR Kevin Lockett may also cut into Rison’s catch total.

WR James Jett, Raiders — Jett never had more than four TD catches in a season before last year, when he had 12. If Jett were a stock, you’d want to sell high.

Click here to return to our main site ProFootballWeekly.com

© 1998-2001 by Pro Football Weekly, a Primedia publication. All rights reserved. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.