Pieces are in place for breakout players

By ROBERT NEELY, Associate editor
As published in print Aug. 3

Fantasy football is a a forecasting business, and one of the hardest parts is finding players who are ready to break out and become scoring studs.

Before a player can establish himself as a legitimate fantasy-league starter, two things must be in place for him: The opportunity to get his hands on the ball, and the potential to do something good with the ball once he’s gotten his mitts on it. If those things come together, production follows.

With that in mind, Pro Football Weekly takes a look at 15 players who have the opportunity and potential and are therefore on the verge of bursting onto the next level as fantasy-football producers. Those players are listed alphabetically by position.

QUARTERBACKS

Bobby Hoying / Eagles — Hoying had been the Eagles’ QB-in-waiting for virtually his whole career before finally claiming the starting job last November. He finished the season with 11 TD passes, including 10 in his six starts. He has a front-line target/security blanket in Irving Fryar. The addition of rookie OT Tra Thomas should help Hoying’s passing numbers, as well.

Rob Johnson / Bills — Johnson has a grand total of one NFL start, but the Bills believed in him enough to spend a first-round pick and $25 million to make him their quarterback of the future. The fourth-year pro has veteran wideouts in Andre Reed and Quinn Early, and, when Johnson got the chance to play in Jacksonville, he responded with flying colors.

Steve McNair / Oilers —McNair was on this list last year, and he responded with 14 TD passes and eight scoring runs, both career highs by far. But his potential is still tantalizing enough to make fantasy owners believe more is possible, especially now that the Oilers have upgraded their WR corps by acquiring Yancey Thigpen and Kevin Dyson.

Jake Plummer / Cardinals — Like Hoying, Plummer claimed a starting job in midseason and showed flashes of brilliance. Plummer is a mobile quarterback who sometimes evokes comparisons to Joe Montana. The Cardinals are adding elements of the West Coast offense to their attack this year, which should help keep Plummer’s jersey a little cleaner a year after Arizona finished dead last in sacks allowed.

RUNNING BACKS

Donnell Bennett / Chiefs — Someone has to claim the Chief RB job, and Bennett is the odds-on favorite. He has been very effective in one-RB sets, and the Chiefs feel that he can also perform in other alignments. Bennett’s big frame and bruising style also make him the favorite to take over for Marcus Allen as K.C.’s goalline back, provided the Chiefs don’t sign a veteran free agent such as Bam Morris.

Fred Lane / Panthers — Last year Lane was the RB version of Plummer, emerging at midseason to claim a starting job and excite fans about the future. Lane finished the season with seven touchdowns, four 100-yard games and a 4.4-yard average, despite starting just seven games. If he can maintain that pace for a full season in ’98, Lane will be a bona fide fantasy star.

Antowain Smith / Bills — Smith rushed for 840 yards and eight TD’s in his rookie season, despite sharing time with veteran Thurman Thomas. This time around, Smith is the featured back, as the aging Thomas gets a reduced workload. And the Bills have added FB Sam Gash, who should open holes and make it easier for Smith to get through the first line of defense.

Lamar Smith / Saints — This Smith had to leave Seattle in order to get a shot at being an every-week starting NFL running back. After averaging 4.4 yards per carry the past two years with the Seahawks, Smith inked a multimillion-dollar deal with New Orleans. Head coach Mike Ditka would love to have a power running game, so, if Smith plays well, he should get all the carries he could hope for.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Will Blackwell / Steelers — Blackwell is a sleeper, but there is reason to believe he could emerge as a Steeler starter and a fantasy factor in ’98. With the departure of Yancey Thigpen, the Pittsburgh WR corps is in a state of flux. Charles Johnson is the surer thing of the Steeler receivers, but Blackwell may have more upside — if he claims a starting job.

Rae Carruth / Panthers —The Panther QB situation was less than ideal in ’97, but Carruth still had a solid rookie campaign. In ’98, the Panthers will use the trendy West Coast offense, which will place more emphasis on the passing game. That’s good news for Carruth, who caught 44 passes in a run-oriented offense last year. Also, Kerry Collins will be around from the start this year, which should further boost Carruth’s numbers.

James McKnight / Seahawks — McKnight missed the first four games of the ’97 season but returned to catch 34 passes and six TD’s and average 18.7 yards per reception. Not bad for a guy who had eight catches in his first three seasons combined. McKnight will compete with Mike Pritchard for a starting job in Seattle’s pass-happy offense. Even if he doesn’t win the job immediately, McKnight still figures to be a major contributor in the Seahawk air attack.

Michael Westbrook / Redskins — Yeah, yeah, you’ve heard it before — this is the year for Westbrook finally to fulfill the potential that made him the fourth overall pick in the ’95 draft. The fact is that Westbrook has teased both the Redskins and fantasy owners by showing flashes of brilliance in his career, but they have been few and far between. Still, the potential is there, and other receivers have exploded in their fourth seasons. It’s certainly risky to pick Westbrook, but, if he comes into his own, his stock will rise dramatically.

TIGHT ENDS

Ken Dilger / Colts — Indianapolis’ offensive line was terrible last season; as a result, Dilger was used almost exclusively as a blocker. He notched just three TD catches, all of which came in one game. Improvement by second-year OT’s Tarik Glenn and Adam Meadows would give the Colts more freedom to use Dilger as a receiver, and the arrival of wunderkind Peyton Manning could stabilize the Colt QB situation. That could lead to a breakout season for Dilger.

Tony Gonzalez / Chiefs — Gonzalez just oozes potential, and the Chiefs can’t wait to find ways to use his tremendous athleticism. The former college basketball player caught only two regular-season TD passes last year. But, in the playoffs vs. Denver, Gonzalez emerged as a red-zone target. Gonzalez should be much more of a factor in the Chief offense in ’98, so look for his numbers of catches and scores to make big jumps.

Freddie Jones / Chargers — Jones arrived on the scene quickly in his rookie season, catching TD passes in his first two games. Acombination of Charger QB woes and a broken leg kept him out of the endzone the rest of the season. Still, Jones is considered the Chargers’ best receiving tight end since Kellen Winslow. As rookie QB Ryan Leaf develops, look for Jones to become a more valuable fantasy option.

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