Joel Buchsbaum's college bowl previews

Bowling for No. 1

By Joel Buchsbaum, Contributing editor
As published in print Dec. 18, 2000

It would not shock me one bit if Florida State beats Oklahoma, Florida upsets Miami and Purdue beats Washington, which would make the Seminoles the national champions with a possible protest from Oregon State if it beats Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

This is not your father’s Oklahoma team. The Sooners don’t have superior talent, a great group of running backs, a superior defense, tremendous depth or superior team speed. They’ve gone undefeated because of great, great coaching, a very efficient passing game that sets up the run and a remarkable run of good luck. Nobody on their two-deep depth chart has suffered a major injury all year, and the ball almost always seems to bounce the right way for them. On the other hand, Florida State has superior athletes, depth and team speed but also has had some injury problems over the course of the season.

Both teams use some version of the spread offense and generally have at least three wide receivers on the field. The two quarterbacks in this game — Florida State’s Chris Weinke and Oklahoma’s Josh Heupel — finished 1-2 in the Heisman race. Heupel is sort of a left-handed Danny Wuerffel. He does not have a really strong arm or a classic delivery, but he makes great decisions and gets the ball to the right man at the right time. However, his passes will hang up at times, and Florida State has NFL-type team speed on defense. Weinke is a big, strong, tough pocket passer with a powerful arm who is not always that accurate but is much more accurate than he was a year ago. He also has improved his mobility, but he played hurt much of the year, which limited his mobility. Weinke’s go-to guy is senior WR Marvin Minnis, who is about as thin as a pencil and as tough as nails. He also is an acrobatic, dynamic football player in the Lamar Thomas (ex-Hurricane, now a Dolphins wide receiver) mold, but better. Heupel really does not favor any one receiver. The Sooners were WR-oriented all year, but then in the Big-12 championship game, their go-to receiver was TE Trent Smith, who is more of a big possession wide receiver than an all-around tight end. Neither team has a great running back, but both teams must run the ball enough to keep the defense honest.

Almost every player who plays for Florida State is either an NFL prospect now or a future prospect, and the team speed is incredible. One defensive end, David Warren, has been timed in the 4.4s in the 40-yard dash by NFL scouts, and the other, Jamal Reynolds, is a pass-rushing terror who plays faster than Warren. Tommy Polley and Brian Allen have excellent speed at outside linebacker, and Tay Cody has played like an All-American at cornerback.

The strength of the Oklahoma defense is its two all-star-type linebackers, Rocky Calmus and Torrance Marshall. Calmus has great instincts and anticipation, while Marshall has superior physical talent. The secondary, which starts at least three freshmen or sophomores and senior FS J.T. Thatcher (when he is not getting benched for missing tackles), is outstanding. SS Roy Williams is a future All-American, and Thatcher, who has a knack for interceptions, has improved his tackling but is still not a reliable tackler. Thatcher is also a terrific return man who shows his open-field running skills when he picks off passes. While the Sooners do not have an overly reliable kicker, they still have the edge in this area, especially with Thatcher returning kicks.

The case for Florida State — Great, great talent, speed and depth. The Seminoles have a bigger, faster and more mature squad.

The case against Florida State — All the pressure is on the Seminoles. They tend to get sloppy at times and are not very disciplined on defense. They have too many players trying to make "SportsCenter" highlights, trying to impress the NFL scouts or just trying not to get hurt after seeing what happened to Polley and DE Roland Seymour in last year’s championship game.

The case for Oklahoma — The Sooners are playing with house money. Nobody took them seriously all year. They were not supposed to win their division, let alone the Big 12. Nobody picked them to go undefeated, and now, despite being the only undefeated team, they are still double-digit underdogs. Heupel is a true gamer who will not let them lose. They are on the same type of magic-carpet ride the 1969 Mets were on when they beat the mighty Orioles to win the World Series.

The case against Oklahoma — The Sooners might not have enough experience to stay on the same field with the more experienced and talented Seminoles.

Possible hidden factor — The weather. A warm, humid day favors the Seminoles because of their depth. A windy day also could favor FSU because the wind could have more impact on Heupel’s passing than Weinke’s.

Prediction: Florida State 27, Oklahoma 20

This was once a great rivalry, but it hasn’t been played in years because both programs felt it would make their annual schedule too tough. The Hurricanes got better as the season went along, as their young quarterback, Ken Dorsey, developed. Dorsey was at his very best in the Hurricanes’ big upset of Florida State, when he looked like a young Bernie Kosar after looking very shaky vs. Washington.

The Gators seemed to be getting better over the course of the season until they really laid an egg against Florida State with so much at stake, but they did bounce back against Auburn in the Southeastern Conference championship game. The key to both teams’ success is their running games. Both are passing teams, but if they become too one-dimensional, they become very vulnerable. Florida probably will start Rex Grossman at quarterback. The second-year freshman is not going to draw a crowd of scouts when he warms up, but he is generally very efficient in games. If he struggles, senior Jesse Palmer will replace him, since Steve Spurrier has as much patience with quarterbacks as Bobby Knight has with reporters. Whoever plays quarterback will have two great receivers to throw to in super sophomore Reche Caldwell and fabulous freshman Jabar Gaffney. However, Florida’s real strength may be on the defensive side of the ball, where DT Gerard Warren can play like King Kong in shoulder pads in the middle. DE Alex Brown is starting to rush the passer again, and the young secondary, led by CB Lito Sheppard, is exceptional. Miami has more weapons than the Pentagon on offense, with Dorsey throwing to game-breaker Santana Moss and acrobatic Reggie Wayne and handing off to RBs James Jackson and Najeh Davenport. On defense, the ’Canes are very good up front as long as DT Damione Lewis’ troublesome foot is not too troublesome. They also have a true All-America linebacker in tall, fast and aggressive Dan Morgan and a top-notch secondary led by SS Edward Reed. Florida has an edge in the kicking game; Jeff Chandler is one of the most accurate field-goal kickers in the country.

Prediction: Florida 27, Miami 24

Washington is a team that spent almost the entire season living on the edge and winning games at the very end. Half of the Huskies’ wins could have been losses if not for one play. Their quarterback, Marques Tuiasosopo, is a superb competitor and leader who can beat you with his arm or his feet, but he is also prone to turning the ball over by trying to do too much himself. TE Jerramy Stevens has a huge wingspan and has had games (vs. Miami and Colorado) in which he was a huge difference-maker. However, he also will disappear at times if he is not the focal point. On the offensive line, OG Chad Ward is a powerful inside blocker, while Elliott Silvers may be the higher draft pick because he is a pure tackle with pretty good feet and great size. Ward is more of a phone-booth type of player despite an impressive time in the 40-yard dash. The Huskies’ young runners developed over the course of the year but are still inconsistent. Defensively, Larry Tripplett is very active, athletic and effective and can be very disruptive in the middle at the DT position. Washington’s secondary is vulnerable, however, and with Drew Brees throwing, Purdue can exploit that vulnerability.

While Brees may not be a great deep thrower, he is a very good decision-maker with the ball and has many of the instincts and intangibles that made Bob Griese the best quarterback Purdue ever had. Brees also has a good group of receivers and a sure-handed tight end in Tim Stratton. Purdue’s spread offense really spreads the field and creates the type of atmosphere a small back such as Montrell Lowe can thrive in. The Boilermakers also have a very good offensive line, led by OLT Matt Light. On defense, Purdue’s best player is pass rusher Akin Ayodele, but overall, the Boilermakers are a little suspect vs. both the run and pass.

Prediction: Purdue 27, Washington 24

The case for Florida State — Great, great talent, speed and depth. The Seminoles have a bigger, faster and more mature squad.

The case against Florida State — All the pressure is on the Seminoles. They tend to get sloppy at times and are not very disciplined on defense. They have too many players trying to make "SportsCenter" highlights, trying to impress the NFL scouts or just trying not to get hurt after seeing what happened to Polley and DE Roland Seymour in last year’s championship game.

The case for Oklahoma — The Sooners are playing with house money. Nobody took them seriously all year. They were not supposed to win their division, let alone the Big 12. Nobody picked them to go undefeated, and now, despite being the only undefeated team, they are still double-digit underdogs. Heupel is a true gamer who will not let them lose. They are on the same type of magic-carpet ride the 1969 Mets were on when they beat the mighty Orioles to win the World Series.

The case against Oklahoma — The Sooners might not have enough experience to stay on the same field with the more experienced and talented Seminoles.

Possible hidden factor — The weather. A warm, humid day favors the Seminoles because of their depth. A windy day also could favor FSU because the wind could have more impact on Heupel’s passing than Weinke’s.

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