SEC championship game
Florida vs. Alabama, Saturday, Dec. 4, at Atlanta, Ga.
Alabama broke the Gators’ long winning streak at "the Swamp" Oct. 2 with
a thrilling one-point overtime victory that was decided by a missed extra point. Since
then, Alabama has been on a roll and has saved head coach Mike DuBose’s job.
Florida played well for the rest of October but struggled in November, looking almost
inept on offense vs. Vanderbilt and South Carolina and not faring much better vs. Florida
State. After starting Doug Johnson most of the year, a frustrated Steve Spurrier went with
Jesse Palmer vs. South Carolina and then rotated the two quarterbacks on almost every down
vs. Florida State.
Too many physical and mental mistakes and a seemingly confused and penalty-prone
offense have led to the Gators’ downfall. If they don’t get out of their funk,
they could be in big trouble. However, the Gators do have the talent to win this game and
play with anyone in the country if they clear their heads and start playing smart
football.
Quarterbacks — Johnson has a live arm and will make some great
plays, but he is not consistent and has too many mental meltdowns when he makes poor reads
and decisions. Palmer has less talent but is less likely to make the big mental mistake.
For Alabama, Andrew Zow is a gifted sophomore quarterback with big-play potential, but at
times he will revert and play like a sophomore. If he does — Zow tends to get wild
and overthrow — Alabama will replace him with Tyler Watts, a very gifted second-year
freshman who does not play like a freshman. Edge: Alabama.
Running backs — Shaun Alexander had a great year for Alabama, but
he has had a bad ankle for over a month and hasn’t been quite the same back he was
earlier in the season. However, he did look very good in the fourth quarter of the Auburn
game and has become a tougher runner. Alexander is also an excellent pass catcher. The
Gators will go with the hot runner if they can find one, but nobody made his mark vs.
Florida State. While Spurrier has a fine record in big games, he has never won a really
big game when the other team has shut down his team’s running game. Thus, the key to
this game could be the effectiveness of Earnest Graham, the closest thing Florida has to a
heavy-duty runner. Edge: Alabama.
Receivers — Florida may have the best set of wide receivers in
the Southeastern Conference in Travis Taylor and Darrell Jackson. Unless the Tide plays a
lot of zone coverage, Taylor and Jackson will really test Alabama’s cornerbacks. If
the Tide doubles the wide receivers, king-sized TE Erron Kinney or undersized TE Kirk
Wells can cause problems. Throw in Florida’s multiple-WR formations and
Spurrier’s plays that feature waterbug Bo Carroll in the backfield and sprinter John
Capel at wide receiver, and the Gators can be almost unstoppable — that is, if the
offensive line holds up and the quarterback does his job. As good as Florida’s two
starting receivers are, there are some in the SEC who believe Alabama’s spectacular
sophomore, Freddie Milons, is even better. The Tide’s other receivers are OK, and
Alexander is a very dangerous receiver out of the backfield who can catch the ball down
the field. Edge: Florida.
Offensive linemen — Alabama may have the best offensive lineman
in the country in OLT Chris Samuels. The Tide also has a very good center in sophomore
Paul Hogan. Alabama has awesome size on the right side of its line, where its two-deep
lists four linemen who average 6-6 and 320-plus pounds. Their top two tight ends, Terry
Jones Jr. and Shawn Draper, are 262 and 294 pounds, respectively. Florida’s front
five was an efficient group earlier in the year but looked very average and not overly
athletic in November. Edge: Alabama.
Defensive linemen — Florida has a potentially dominant defensive
line led by DRE Alex Brown and 300-pound DLT Gerard Warren. Brown can rush the quarterback
as well as anyone in the country and was the key to the Gators beating Tennessee. However,
he also has games in which he disappears. Scouts would love to see Alabama’s Samuels
face Brown the entire game, but the Gators don’t want their best pass rusher to have
to contend with Samuels. Hence, Florida will probably play Brown on the left side of the
line and as a rover type. Warren can be inconsistent and is more of a run-down player.
Alabama lost its best defensive lineman when Kenny Smith went down with a knee injury. But
freshman DRE Kenny King can be an impact player, and despite the loss of Smith, the Tide
can rotate at every position and use different players for specific downs and distances. Edge:
Florida.
Linebackers — Alabama is very young in this area and has gotten
better over the course of the year. Florida lost its big three in the first two rounds of
the NFL draft and has yet to replace them. Edge: Alabama.
Defensive backs — Florida will generally start four sophomores
and then have an all-freshman second unit. However, these are very talented young men, and
sophomore CB Bennie Alexander is already an impact player. Alabama is playing more zone
because it doesn’t have great cover corners, such as former Crimson Tide star
Fernando Bryant, the Jaguars’ No. 1 pick in April. Like Florida, the Tide
doesn’t have a senior on its two-deep in the secondary, but the team does have four
juniors. Edge: Florida.
Special teams — Florida’s Capel and Carroll are two of the
fastest and most dangerous return men in the country. A once-shaky Gators kicking game is
much improved now that Jeff Chandler has settled down and become a solid placekicker with
50-yard range. Alabama also has a very good returner in Milons. Edge: Florida.
Prediction: Florida 30, Alabama 24 |
